I think it's highly counterproductive.
People seem to have a stereotype in their minds of private school children being those who attend famous boarding schools like Eton and Harrow, whose fees are so high that 20% VAT would be a large sum that can hugely benefit the state sector, and whose parents are so rich that the extra fees wouldn't faze them. The reality is that this is a tiny minority. It underestimates the high proportion of children attending far cheaper private schools, whose parents can only
just about afford to send them there, or who rely on scholarships and bursaries to be able to attend.
This means that as a result of VAT, many children who would have otherwise gone to a private school will instead go to a state school. It may not happen all at once with mass transfers from private to state, but in the long term, parents of new pupils joining primary or secondary school for the first time will inevitably be swayed more towards the state sector.
Many people will not see this as a problem: "I attended state school and turned out fine, what's the big deal if they do too?". But it is bad in several ways besides "poor Millie and Hugo having to go to state school with the commoners". For example:
•
It's bad for the taxpayer, who now has to foot the entire bill for their education (around £8k per year per pupil) without collecting any extra tax from them.
•
It's bad for existing state school pupils, who will face greater competition for places at their top choices of school (especially from pupils who can better afford things like private tuition and house prices in catchment areas)
•
It's also bad for existing state school pupils in the sense that their schools will get more overcrowded, with limited resources having to be spread more thinly across more pupils (e.g. real estate, one-on-one time with teachers)
•
It's bad for children who would have benefitted from specialist forms of education that are more readily available at private schools (e.g. special educational needs and disabilities, boarding for military families)
•
It's bad for children who suffer an interruption in their education by having to transfer from one school to another.
The only positive is that yes, the VAT results in some extra money being collected from those who remain in private schools (around £3k per year per pupil). But there are two issues: firstly, most of this gets eroded by the additional costs of educating more children at state school and outweighed by the additional disadvantages outlined above, and secondly there are far better ways of collecting this extra money in a way that doesn't result in a shock to the entire education system (e.g. increasing taxes for those who can easily afford to pay more tax).