I know candidates for 2024 who missed their Geography offer at Durham and still got taken. One was one grade down and one achieved an equivalent in points, but it included a B.
The thing is, they tend to only offer to people who have the predicted/actual grades of the standard offer, if you’re not contextual. They will likely do that again this year. No doubt some of those with the right predicted grades will only achieve what you got, but at this point, they can’t tell who will get less than predicted. But they can’t tell exactly what you got. On that basis, I’d think you’ll get an offer for the one you meet the offer for (probably) and not the other.
The other thing, is whether they actually offer to people who ‘only’ have the standard offer, or only to those who exceed it - can they be so picky because of numbers applying?
Unfortunatley most people fail to achieve their predicted grades (over 80%) so actually most people applying pre-exams have the strongest application on paper that they will ever have. Unis have to take a chance with giving offers….thry kniw lots won’t hit their predicted grades or the standard offer…but not which ones won’t. With you, they know you didn’t meet the standard offer grades for one of the course. As they are over-subscribed they don’t need to take you. Instead they can give an offer to a person with the right or higher predicted grades…and the annoying thing is, if they miss and get what you did, they will still probably take them.
It would def be worth ringing them and asking about this.
They might not give a definite answer and you could find you wait until the end of the admissions cycle as you’ll be a marginal candidate. It could well work out for you though, and esp for the course that has a slightly lower standard offer