Number crunching: excess of aspirant barristers over places available.
TL/DR: Almost 3000 students seek 650 pupillages. Think carefully before trying this at home.
In 1985, there were about 10,000 practising barristers and about 50,000 practising solicitors in the UK. The UK economy was growing, and there was a boom in demand for legal services. Civil legal aid was still available for many cases. The Bar and the solicitors' profession grew rapidly from the seventies to the noughties.
As 2025 begins, there are about 35,000 practising barristers and about 200,000 practising solicitors in the UK.
The UK economy has been pretty much stagnating for several years. Growth is small, and sometimes negligible. Some of the demand for legal services has moved offshore or to Ireland and Europe, especially since Brexit. Civil legal aid is almost extinct.
In addition, much of the process-management work done by solicitors in non-contentious sectors may soon be achievable by AI systems. Lastly, many large UK law firms are now owned by US firms which import some of their own professional staff.
It appears unlikely that the Bar or the solicitors' profession will expand much. They may contract.
Barristers retire late or not at all, and not all that many barristers become Judges or change to other jobs, so exit from the profession is slow.
In 1985, about 800 people attended the one Bar School then available. The course cost about £1500 (that is about £4715 at present values).
About 100 of the 800 failed the Bar exam and were never heard of again. Another 200 went off into other employment sectors, in the law or elsewhere. A small group went back to their Commonwealth home countries to practise law there (Ghana, Cyprus, Malaysia, etc).
About 500 of the 800 did pupillage. About 400 of the 500 were taken on as tenants in chambers. The others joined the CPS, became solicitors, or left the law.
In numerical terms, if you went to Bar School you had a fifty-fifty chance of ending up as a practising barrister, but of course raw numbers can mislead. In non-numerical terms, if you were reasonably able, and sufficiently determined, you had a high chance of a tenancy.
Funding was a big hassle. Bar school was not supported by student grants (student loans were not yet a thing). Pupils were not paid. Pupillage awards were new, rare, and small. But people found ways to fund Bar School and pupillage. For example, I worked two jobs, begged money from educational charities at City Livery companies, and obtained scholarships from my chambers and my Inn.
Nowadays, funding is an issue, but maybe not the main issue.
The main issue is supply and demand. Currently, there are about 650 pupillages available in barristers' chambers each year. The pupillage selection processes are now so rigorous that most pupils who stay the course are taken on as tenants.
So there are maybe 600 new tenancies each year. Note that the Bar is over three times bigger than it was in 1985, but it does not have more than three times as many slots for new entrants.
Instead of 800 people chasing those 650 pupillages, there are now about 2800 people, who are taking or have taken the Bar course at one of several places, paying about £15,000 to 18,000 to do so.
There is no reliable indicator that the current expensive Bar courses are any better than the one £1,500 (now 4,715) course that people took in 1985. Anecdotally, the current courses may be worse than the old course. The current courses are sometimes taught at low quality factories such as BPP and the University of Law, often by people with little or no experience of legal practice.
By contrast, the long dead Inns of Court School of Law was far from perfect, but it had some practising barristers and even a few Oxbridge academics among its teaching staff. For example, Sir Ian Brownlie QC, Chichele Professor of Law in the University of Oxford, and the foremost practising Public International Lawyer in his day, occasionally taught at the ICSL.
I make these points in order to encourage those of you who aspire to be barristers to take a brutally realistic view of the process. Those of you who have got into Oxford, Cambridge, UCL, KCL, LSE, Durham, Bristol, Nottingham etc already know what tough competition is like. You face a further round of tough competition, with the numerical odds unfavourable. I am not saying give up. I am saying be realistic.
I do not know how the numbers stack up for solicitors. I do not think that the picture is particularly rosy, although I don't think that the attrition rate is as severe as it is for aspirant barristers. What I do know is that many (not all) junior solicitors in large law firms appear to dislike their jobs. Most (not all) junior barristers appear to love their jobs.
The broader message here is this: Please stop watching "Suits" and "Legally Blonde", and ask yourself if you really want to be a lawyer, and, if so, why. If you really do, and not just for the ker-ching, go for it, but look before you leap.
In 1985, there were about 10,000 practising barristers and about 50,000 practising solicitors in the UK. The UK economy was growing, and there was a boom in demand for legal services. Civil legal aid was still available for many cases. The Bar and the solicitors' profession grew rapidly from the seventies to the noughties.
As 2025 begins, there are about 35,000 practising barristers and about 200,000 practising solicitors in the UK.
The UK economy has been pretty much stagnating for several years. Growth is small, and sometimes negligible. Some of the demand for legal services has moved offshore or to Ireland and Europe, especially since Brexit. Civil legal aid is almost extinct.
In addition, much of the process-management work done by solicitors in non-contentious sectors may soon be achievable by AI systems. Lastly, many large UK law firms are now owned by US firms which import some of their own professional staff.
It appears unlikely that the Bar or the solicitors' profession will expand much. They may contract.
Barristers retire late or not at all, and not all that many barristers become Judges or change to other jobs, so exit from the profession is slow.
In 1985, about 800 people attended the one Bar School then available. The course cost about £1500 (that is about £4715 at present values).
About 100 of the 800 failed the Bar exam and were never heard of again. Another 200 went off into other employment sectors, in the law or elsewhere. A small group went back to their Commonwealth home countries to practise law there (Ghana, Cyprus, Malaysia, etc).
About 500 of the 800 did pupillage. About 400 of the 500 were taken on as tenants in chambers. The others joined the CPS, became solicitors, or left the law.
In numerical terms, if you went to Bar School you had a fifty-fifty chance of ending up as a practising barrister, but of course raw numbers can mislead. In non-numerical terms, if you were reasonably able, and sufficiently determined, you had a high chance of a tenancy.
Funding was a big hassle. Bar school was not supported by student grants (student loans were not yet a thing). Pupils were not paid. Pupillage awards were new, rare, and small. But people found ways to fund Bar School and pupillage. For example, I worked two jobs, begged money from educational charities at City Livery companies, and obtained scholarships from my chambers and my Inn.
Nowadays, funding is an issue, but maybe not the main issue.
The main issue is supply and demand. Currently, there are about 650 pupillages available in barristers' chambers each year. The pupillage selection processes are now so rigorous that most pupils who stay the course are taken on as tenants.
So there are maybe 600 new tenancies each year. Note that the Bar is over three times bigger than it was in 1985, but it does not have more than three times as many slots for new entrants.
Instead of 800 people chasing those 650 pupillages, there are now about 2800 people, who are taking or have taken the Bar course at one of several places, paying about £15,000 to 18,000 to do so.
There is no reliable indicator that the current expensive Bar courses are any better than the one £1,500 (now 4,715) course that people took in 1985. Anecdotally, the current courses may be worse than the old course. The current courses are sometimes taught at low quality factories such as BPP and the University of Law, often by people with little or no experience of legal practice.
By contrast, the long dead Inns of Court School of Law was far from perfect, but it had some practising barristers and even a few Oxbridge academics among its teaching staff. For example, Sir Ian Brownlie QC, Chichele Professor of Law in the University of Oxford, and the foremost practising Public International Lawyer in his day, occasionally taught at the ICSL.
I make these points in order to encourage those of you who aspire to be barristers to take a brutally realistic view of the process. Those of you who have got into Oxford, Cambridge, UCL, KCL, LSE, Durham, Bristol, Nottingham etc already know what tough competition is like. You face a further round of tough competition, with the numerical odds unfavourable. I am not saying give up. I am saying be realistic.
I do not know how the numbers stack up for solicitors. I do not think that the picture is particularly rosy, although I don't think that the attrition rate is as severe as it is for aspirant barristers. What I do know is that many (not all) junior solicitors in large law firms appear to dislike their jobs. Most (not all) junior barristers appear to love their jobs.
The broader message here is this: Please stop watching "Suits" and "Legally Blonde", and ask yourself if you really want to be a lawyer, and, if so, why. If you really do, and not just for the ker-ching, go for it, but look before you leap.
(edited 10 months ago)
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