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Chances of getting into Imperial for Aeronautical

Hi there. Im currently in Year 12 studying Maths, Physics and DT at A-Level. I am interested in Aeronautical at Imperial. However I am not doing Further Maths. O know Imperial like Further Maths but the reason I am not doing it is because of reasons in which i am going to state in something called an “extenuating circumstances form” as i had disruption in my education, which led to me not being able to do FM. I am planning to do some AS Fuether Maths over the summer to include that in my personal statement, in addition I am possibly eligible for a contextual offer too. What are my chances if i can get really high predicted grades and write a really good personal statement of getting in? I am also planning to start ESAT preparation from now as I feel like a strong ESAT score may show them my mathematical ability anyways. Is it worth applying?