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Bank of England cuts interest rates to lowest level at 4.5%

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Reply 20

Original post
by Emma:-)
I think its good that it is coming down.
Yes, we wont get as much interest on savings. But the cost of borrowing is coming down nicely.

And lower interest rates should help boost prices too. Not just everyday stuff like fuel, groceries and personal electronics, but house prices and car prices should get a boost too so that's good.

Reply 21

Original post
by BenRyan99
It's a pretty sensible assumption to make that 'money printing' would manifest itself primarily in services inflation and possibly a bit in core goods inflation. To think otherwise requires some very strange logic, namely that money printing in the UK would push up international oil, gas and food commodity prices. It seems pretty reasonable to assume domestic money printing wouldn't cause a spike in parts of the CPI basket that are typically externally driven.
I think maybe rates were a little lower than they should've been, but the difference is small. Rates were low because growth was low. If money printing was the issue you would get extremely high nominal GDP growth and inflation after QE and we didn't see that. After COVID QE, we only saw inflation start to pick up sharply once Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, which caused a spike in the energy component of the CPI basket, rather than core inflation (where the effects of excessive QE would show up).

All other things being equal, increasing the sterling money supply should increase oil, gas and food commodity prices as sterling depricates relative to international currencies.

Reply 22

Original post
by Quady
And lower interest rates should help boost prices too. Not just everyday stuff like fuel, groceries and personal electronics, but house prices and car prices should get a boost too so that's good.

Please help your sentence make sense in my head. Lower interest rates should boost prices?

I think the BoE will reduce rates again yet.

Reply 23

Original post
by Quady
All other things being equal, increasing the sterling money supply should increase oil, gas and food commodity prices as sterling depricates relative to international currencies.
Sure, but commodity prices aren't fundamentally set by the UK. The effects of the changes in international commodity prices dwarf the changes in sterling. So changes in sterling can accentuate or mitigate changes in global commodity prices, but the overall impact is relatively small. It also depends on how the refinery margins change.

Reply 24

Original post
by ErasistratusV
Please help your sentence make sense in my head. Lower interest rates should boost prices?
I think the BoE will reduce rates again yet.
This is correct - you lower rates to boost inflation and you raise rates to quell inflation.

The BoE is set to lower Bank Rate by 25bps in May as it thinks the weakness in economic activity suggests inflation will undershoot the 2% target in the medium term if it doesn't reduce the restrictiveness of current interest rates.

Reply 25

Original post
by ErasistratusV
Please help your sentence make sense in my head. Lower interest rates should boost prices?
I think the BoE will reduce rates again yet.

Yes, when the cost of money reduces, prices tend to rise.

Why'd ya think they raised interest rates?

Reply 26

Original post
by Quady
Yes, when the cost of money reduces, prices tend to rise.
Why'd ya think they raised interest rates?


I wasn't sure if you meant inflation in general or specifically prices of goods/services in retail terms.

I am not so sure the price of anything is automatically linked to the interest rates, I would suggest higher interest rates actually increase the cost of doing business and make prices higher which tends to make demand ease. Cars are a classic example because so many are bought using finance. A few clicks of the knob on interest rates can soon make people pay a lot more per month for their vehicle and that curtails their other spending pretty quick.

Meanwhile, lower interest rates seem to stimulate demand by making borrowing more affordable. That being said, the price/value of a house is dependant upon whatever the market believes it is worth and what a buyer is prepared to pay.

In reality it is a very crude way of controlling the economy but it is used because it's politically expedient.

I still feel the interest rates will fall again yet, out and about I'm not sure the economy is in that great a shape. Lacklustre would be my adjective.

Reply 27

Original post
by ErasistratusV
I wasn't sure if you meant inflation in general or specifically prices of goods/services in retail terms.
I am not so sure the price of anything is automatically linked to the interest rates, I would suggest higher interest rates actually increase the cost of doing business and make prices higher which tends to make demand ease. Cars are a classic example because so many are bought using finance. A few clicks of the knob on interest rates can soon make people pay a lot more per month for their vehicle and that curtails their other spending pretty quick.
Meanwhile, lower interest rates seem to stimulate demand by making borrowing more affordable. That being said, the price/value of a house is dependant upon whatever the market believes it is worth and what a buyer is prepared to pay.
In reality it is a very crude way of controlling the economy but it is used because it's politically expedient.
I still feel the interest rates will fall again yet, out and about I'm not sure the economy is in that great a shape. Lacklustre would be my adjective.
I don't think anyone is suggesting that prices are automatically linked to interest rates.

I'm not really sure what most of your post was all about, to me you just explained why higher interest rates lower prices across the broad inflation basket, and why lower interest rates can increase inflation - this is widely accepted theory already?

It's true that interest rates are a blunt instrument, but it's not about politics - central banks are broadly independent in advanced economies like our own. They're just given a mandate (e.g. an inflation target) and granted the power to use a very select few tools to achieve the job. I don't think it's fair to say that how they change interest rates is for political expedience.

The BoE will vote to lower Bank Rate by 25bps on Thursday and signal that it may actually pursue a more aggressive approach to cutting rates at subsequent meetings given the hit to growth from US tariffs.

Reply 28

Original post
by ErasistratusV
I wasn't sure if you meant inflation in general or specifically prices of goods/services in retail terms.
I am not so sure the price of anything is automatically linked to the interest rates, I would suggest higher interest rates actually increase the cost of doing business and make prices higher which tends to make demand ease. Cars are a classic example because so many are bought using finance. A few clicks of the knob on interest rates can soon make people pay a lot more per month for their vehicle and that curtails their other spending pretty quick.
Meanwhile, lower interest rates seem to stimulate demand by making borrowing more affordable. That being said, the price/value of a house is dependant upon whatever the market believes it is worth and what a buyer is prepared to pay.
In reality it is a very crude way of controlling the economy but it is used because it's politically expedient.
I still feel the interest rates will fall again yet, out and about I'm not sure the economy is in that great a shape. Lacklustre would be my adjective.

President Erdoğan has a job opening for you.

Interest rates are used because it's politically expedient? What do you mean be politically expedient?

Reply 29

Original post
by Quady
President Erdoğan has a job opening for you.
Interest rates are used because it's politically expedient? What do you mean be politically expedient?

You wrote, if I am not mistaken, lower interest rates boost prices or words to that effect? I am still not clear if you are talking about inflation or the prices of goods/services here.

I argued higher interest rates increase the cost of doing business, increasing prices and thus curtailing demand?

Reply 30

Original post
by BenRyan99
I don't think anyone is suggesting that prices are automatically linked to interest rates.
I'm not really sure what most of your post was all about, to me you just explained why higher interest rates lower prices across the broad inflation basket, and why lower interest rates can increase inflation - this is widely accepted theory already?
It's true that interest rates are a blunt instrument, but it's not about politics - central banks are broadly independent in advanced economies like our own. They're just given a mandate (e.g. an inflation target) and granted the power to use a very select few tools to achieve the job. I don't think it's fair to say that how they change interest rates is for political expedience.
The BoE will vote to lower Bank Rate by 25bps on Thursday and signal that it may actually pursue a more aggressive approach to cutting rates at subsequent meetings given the hit to growth from US tariffs.

I was replying to someone else where their exact meaning confused me.

Higher interest rates= higher prices and hence a reduction in demand. I think(?) everyone agrees with that.

But lower interest rates/cost of money reduces and this in turn boost prices? I'm not sure I agree with that statement, hence my query.

Anyway, yes, interest rates are a politically expedient way of controlling the economy. Yes, the BoE in theory changes them but only because the government don't want to cop any political ill wind if any decision turns sour, which of course has happened a bit in the now more distant past until it was changed, due to... political expediency.

Reply 31

Original post
by ErasistratusV
You wrote, if I am not mistaken, lower interest rates boost prices or words to that effect? I am still not clear if you are talking about inflation or the prices of goods/services here.
I argued higher interest rates increase the cost of doing business, increasing prices and thus curtailing demand?

I'm talking about inflation. CPI, CPIH, RPI...

You have a point, but we don't have a measure of inflation which includes changes in the cost of money.

Businesses finds it more difficult to put through price rises if their cost of borrowing has increased. In no small part as different businesses have different amounts of leverage. More highly leveraged businesses come under pressure with higher interest rates and go bust.

Reply 32

Original post
by ErasistratusV
I was replying to someone else where their exact meaning confused me.
Higher interest rates= higher prices and hence a reduction in demand. I think(?) everyone agrees with that.
But lower interest rates/cost of money reduces and this in turn boost prices? I'm not sure I agree with that statement, hence my query.
Anyway, yes, interest rates are a politically expedient way of controlling the economy. Yes, the BoE in theory changes them but only because the government don't want to cop any political ill wind if any decision turns sour, which of course has happened a bit in the now more distant past until it was changed, due to... political expediency.


Take house prices.

I have just over £100k in the bank and £20k in premium bonds.

I could buy a freehold property without borrowing.

Other people may want similar properties but need to borrow to do so.

If interest rates rise then the cost of buying a house at the same price goes up for those who are borrowing. For me with cash to cover the purchase the opportunity cost of the missed extra interest that would be foregone from keeping the cash in the bank/premium bonds reduces my propensity to pay what I would previously bid.

Demand is reduced as there are fewer bidders and remaining bidders have lower offers.

The price of the house falls/goes up less as a result.

I think you're implying the cost of money / the mortgage should be included in inflation.

Edit
Or put more succinctly, higher interest rates are a deflationary pressure on prices of goods and services. It increased the cost of debt.

Reply 33

Original post
by Quady
I'm talking about inflation. CPI, CPIH, RPI...
You have a point, but we don't have a measure of inflation which includes changes in the cost of money.
Businesses finds it more difficult to put through price rises if their cost of borrowing has increased. In no small part as different businesses have different amounts of leverage. More highly leveraged businesses come under pressure with higher interest rates and go bust.

You were talking about inflation. My mistake. You seemed to be saying that lowering interest rates boosts prices which made no sense in my head hence asking you about it.

Leverage of business isn't really here or there though: it has little reflection on the ability of your consumer to stand higher prices and ultimately the market will only pay what the market considers a fair price for any given product or service, how much debt the supplier/retailer is carrying is their own business in reality.

Interest rates are as such a very blunt tool as you're basically attempting to limit demand by increasing the cost of doing business or borrowing money. And the first thing that is going to hit is people considering home ownership or people (and businesses) buying cars or other assets with finance.

Reply 34

Original post
by Quady
Take house prices.
I have just over £100k in the bank and £20k in premium bonds.
I could buy a freehold property without borrowing.
Other people may want similar properties but need to borrow to do so.
If interest rates rise then the cost of buying a house at the same price goes up for those who are borrowing. For me with cash to cover the purchase the opportunity cost of the missed extra interest that would be foregone from keeping the cash in the bank/premium bonds reduces my propensity to pay what I would previously bid.
Demand is reduced as there are fewer bidders and remaining bidders have lower offers.
The price of the house falls/goes up less as a result.
I think you're implying the cost of money / the mortgage should be included in inflation.
Edit
Or put more succinctly, higher interest rates are a deflationary pressure on prices of goods and services. It increased the cost of debt.

Not at all: whatever measure of inflation you choose is only a crude estimate and the items they choose to include are often a bit dubious.

I agree interest rate hikes make goods/services more expensive, particularly where finance is involved in financing their sales.

I'm not sure the BoE has quite the latitude it maybe once did though given the way in which the economy is carrying a lot of debt in some cases. and if they get it wrong of course...we are back to politics again.

Reply 35

Original post
by ErasistratusV
I was replying to someone else where their exact meaning confused me.
Higher interest rates= higher prices and hence a reduction in demand. I think(?) everyone agrees with that.
But lower interest rates/cost of money reduces and this in turn boost prices? I'm not sure I agree with that statement, hence my query.
Anyway, yes, interest rates are a politically expedient way of controlling the economy. Yes, the BoE in theory changes them but only because the government don't want to cop any political ill wind if any decision turns sour, which of course has happened a bit in the now more distant past until it was changed, due to... political expediency.
It's not as simple as higher interest rates = higher prices = reduction in demand = reduction in inflation. This can occur for certain goods and services where financing is relevant and the additional costs are passed on to consumers. But there are lots of other transmission channels through which rates impact inflation too.

I feel like you need to do some more research on central bank independence. There's nothing politically expedient about interest rates haha. The BoE being in control of monetary policy has nothing to do with governments wanting avoid blame if things turn sour. Central bank independence is typically granted because they're more effective at stabilising inflation than governments are - there's a lot of research that shows that if interest rates are controlled by politicians, you get political business cycles where governments lower interest rates to boost popularity ahead of elections even if it risks missing one's inflation target.

Therefore, the whole point of granting central bank independence is to remove political expediency, rather than political expediency being a symptom of central bank independence.

Reply 36

Original post
by ErasistratusV
You were talking about inflation. My mistake. You seemed to be saying that lowering interest rates boosts prices which made no sense in my head hence asking you about it.
Leverage of business isn't really here or there though: it has little reflection on the ability of your consumer to stand higher prices and ultimately the market will only pay what the market considers a fair price for any given product or service, how much debt the supplier/retailer is carrying is their own business in reality.
Interest rates are as such a very blunt tool as you're basically attempting to limit demand by increasing the cost of doing business or borrowing money. And the first thing that is going to hit is people considering home ownership or people (and businesses) buying cars or other assets with finance.

Sorry, what's the difference between inflation and rising rises?

[in your head]
(edited 10 months ago)

Reply 37

Original post
by ErasistratusV
Not at all: whatever measure of inflation you choose is only a crude estimate and the items they choose to include are often a bit dubious.
I agree interest rate hikes make goods/services more expensive, particularly where finance is involved in financing their sales.
I'm not sure the BoE has quite the latitude it maybe once did though given the way in which the economy is carrying a lot of debt in some cases. and if they get it wrong of course...we are back to politics again.

I didn't pick or mention and inflation measure in the post you quoted, I said 'take house prices'.

In what way is Land Registry / NRS / Whoever logs housing transactions in Northern Ireland date 'a crude estimate'? Surely it's actions with 100% sample size?

Reply 38

Original post
by Quady
Sorry, what's the difference between inflation and rising rises?
[in your head]


In your original post, you wrote something along the lines of: 'lowering interest rates should boost prices'. Which confused me.

What you meant was, lowering interest rates should boost demand which is a different factor I am sure you agree.

Reply 39

Original post
by Quady
I didn't pick or mention and inflation measure in the post you quoted, I said 'take house prices'.
In what way is Land Registry / NRS / Whoever logs housing transactions in Northern Ireland date 'a crude estimate'? Surely it's actions with 100% sample size?


A lot of factors drive house prices- mainly what the market thinks a property is worth and what it is prepared to pay. These are very different things and a way away from merely factoring interest rates into the equation. What is more, house prices vary hugely depending upon the location, housing demand and the type of property as I am sure you realise.

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