German federal election, 23rd Feb 2025

Volunteer Section Leader, Clearing and Applications Advisor

Germany is going back to the polls on Sunday, following the premature collapse of its traffic-light coalition of the social-democratic SPD, Greens and right-liberal FDP.

Here is the polling situation: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/

Barring an unprecedented polling error, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance will be the largest party in the new Bundestag, with big advances for the far-right AfD, who will move from 5th place to 2nd. The SPD and FDP will be punished significantly and the Greens punished somewhat for the perceived failure of their government.

Assuming the results are broadly in line with the polling, one of the key things to watch will be which of the smaller parties – the FDP, the left-conservative BSW and the left-wing Die Linke – reach the 5% threshold to enter the new parliament. This will determine the number of parties represented and whether the likely outcome of a CDU-SPD coalition can be formed, or whether another three-party coalition is needed.

Polls close at 5pm UK time on Sunday 23rd February, with exit poll projections dropping at this point, with counting and revision of these totals through the evening, and maybe beyond. We'll also see the 'Berliner Runde', a sort of post-results election debate, where the party leaders or representatives debate over who will do a deal with who.

Full results coverage will be available in German on YouTube via Tagesschau, ZDF and Phoenix, with doubtless also some coverage on UK rolling news and English-language Deutsche Welle.

Reply 1

Saracen's Fez

Volunteer Section Leader, Clearing and Applications Advisor

Exit polls from an hour ago – the first hour of results roughly backs these up.

The big question is whether the FDP and BSW make the 5% threshold to enter parliament, which would make coalition formation harder.

Reply 2

SHallowvale

The results aren't surprising, polls in Germany tend to be extremely accurate with very little variability.

The thing that'll be interesting to watch is how many votes the FDP and BSW get, if they fail to hit 5% or the constituency threshold then they'll not get any overhang seats. This will give a greater share of the seats to the larger parties, particularly the Union, which will change the dynamics of coalition building.