Durham Students - Help Choosing Colleges?

I have been offered a place to read Classics at Durham, and understand the dynamics of different colleges, but would like some guidance on choosing the right one for me. My number one priority is to get on the Bailey if possible, and I am most interested in Hatfield and Castle, but understand both are way oversubscribed. For this reason, I've decided to only apply to one of them then put Cuths as my second choice since its the largest on the Bailey, then put Chads and Johns after. My reason for this is that after the first random cycle of choices, I figure it would be less than likely to get into Hatfield or Castle in the second cycle, so it seems like a wasted choice to put the one of them as my second choice of college.
My first question is, is there much difference in chance of getting into Hatfield or Castle, or is it about the same? I would be indifferent going to either, since they both fit the mould for what I'm looking for in a college, in that they are seemingly the most traditional of the colleges. Also, is my plan in the first paragraph a good idea? Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated!