Must read for Oxford Maths applicants.
Hi guys,
Year 12 student here who was doing a bit of research on Oxford University's Math degree and assessing the difficulty of getting in. I wrote this and think anyone in a similar position might consider this quite helpful. I've visualised the data to relieve you from the burden of sorting through the data yourself.
MAT
A graph using the data provided by a 2025 FOI Request, below represents the probability of getting an offer depending on what you achieved on the MAT. Something interesting to note is that there were 101 students who achieved a score of 50-59 and not a single one achieved an offer. Moreover, there seems to exist an arbitrary point that if one exceeds - their chances skyrocket, this is backed with a drastic 29% jump in the offer rate for students achieving a score of 85-89 compared to the ones getting 80-85. Interestingly, there were roughly 30 applicants each in the 6 buckets from 60-89, with 12 and 18 in the last two respectively. The overall trend is what we'd expect.
A FOI Request (2018) gives us the same information but concerns the probability of being shortlisted (invited to interview). These might seem high at first but note that Oxford interviews roughly 1 in 3 people and these numbers are counteracted by the heaps of applicants that achieved sub-50 scores and their much lower probabilities:
For those who think they would make up for things in the interview, 60 seems to be a smart score to be targeting for a notable bump occurs at this point. Additionally, the data also suggests a near-guarantee of being selected for an interview with an MAT score of 80+. GCSEs Oxford is infamous for caring a lot about your GCSEs, importantly, more so than its rival Cambridge. But how much exactly do they care? Well, the same FOI Request (2018) shows us the correlation between the number of A*s you achieve and your chances of getting an interview.
Another clear trend, albeit a gradual one. It's not my place to comment on how many A*s puts you in a "comfortable" spot or give any advice along the lines of "You shouldn't apply with x amount of A*s" as your risk-aversion and circumstances are for you and you only to ascertain, and there are many obvious and (not-so obvious) insights everyone can make themselves. I couldn't find data on the correlation between GCSEs and offer rate for Maths specifically so do take this into mind (I'd expect higher grades for Maths - one of the most competitive degrees after all) but there isn't any reason for the trend to be any different from the general trend for all Oxford degrees (according to this FOI Request):
The Y-Axis represents the average number of those grades that applicants/offer holders held and the X-Axis is the individual grade. For example, offer holders on average, achieved around six Grade 9s. Oxford is a bit different though as they use a contextualised GCSE system that they are quite reluctant to share details about (as they believe they would lose their competitive edge) so there remains a good chance that they don't differentiate between 8s and 9s. The graph above does show the quality of students you're competing with, though. But this doesn't mean you should stress about not having perfect 9s throughout and crying about a couple of 8s, because they're probably treated as equivalents (A*s). And if we group 8s and 9s together, we observe the following:
(Predicted) A-Levels
If like me, you do all of Maths in Year 12 and Further Maths in Year 13 then (normally) your Maths grade (A* required) will serve as part of your three-grade offer, and you'll be expected to get an A* in Further Maths and an A in any other subject. That's the only thing I wanted to share because all other information is very readily accessible. Honestly, there isn't much use in analysing predicted A-Levels. If you meet the minimum requirement, then don't think too much about this. Just do your best. Yes, the majority will have all A*s - but that's more correlation than causation. As mentioned earlier, you can find all other relevant information on A-Levels online (Oxford's official pages, preferably) Interviews You will typically have two (sometimes three) interviews that are roughly 25m in length for Maths. They are graded from 1-9.
The broad descriptors for overall interview scores are as follows:
9 Exceptional Accept
8 Accept
7+ Borderline (top 1/3)
7 Borderline (middle 1/3)
7− Borderline (bottom 1/3)
6+ Below Borderline
6 Below Borderline
5 Probable Reject
4 Reject
3 Clear Reject
2 Clear Reject
1 Clear Reject
There really isn't any point in gathering data about them either. Once again, just do your best. These are obviously incredibly important. You'll also find much better interview advice/information elsewhere than I could provide. Though there is FOI data available (can't be bothered finding it again sorry - you'll have to take my word for it) regarding interview scores, and it seems that the vast majority of interview scores for offer holders are a 7 (no distinction between 7-, 7 and 7+ in data) with nearly all the others being 6s and 8s (it seems somewhat weighted towards the 8s though). There are some rare 9s too with a 9 in an interview fittingly guaranteeing an offer unless the other interviews go horribly wrong (<6). Lastly, the worst you could do and stand a legitimate chance of getting an offer seems to be a 7 in one interview and a 6 in the other.
Year 12 student here who was doing a bit of research on Oxford University's Math degree and assessing the difficulty of getting in. I wrote this and think anyone in a similar position might consider this quite helpful. I've visualised the data to relieve you from the burden of sorting through the data yourself.
MAT
A graph using the data provided by a 2025 FOI Request, below represents the probability of getting an offer depending on what you achieved on the MAT. Something interesting to note is that there were 101 students who achieved a score of 50-59 and not a single one achieved an offer. Moreover, there seems to exist an arbitrary point that if one exceeds - their chances skyrocket, this is backed with a drastic 29% jump in the offer rate for students achieving a score of 85-89 compared to the ones getting 80-85. Interestingly, there were roughly 30 applicants each in the 6 buckets from 60-89, with 12 and 18 in the last two respectively. The overall trend is what we'd expect.
A FOI Request (2018) gives us the same information but concerns the probability of being shortlisted (invited to interview). These might seem high at first but note that Oxford interviews roughly 1 in 3 people and these numbers are counteracted by the heaps of applicants that achieved sub-50 scores and their much lower probabilities:
For those who think they would make up for things in the interview, 60 seems to be a smart score to be targeting for a notable bump occurs at this point. Additionally, the data also suggests a near-guarantee of being selected for an interview with an MAT score of 80+. GCSEs Oxford is infamous for caring a lot about your GCSEs, importantly, more so than its rival Cambridge. But how much exactly do they care? Well, the same FOI Request (2018) shows us the correlation between the number of A*s you achieve and your chances of getting an interview.
Another clear trend, albeit a gradual one. It's not my place to comment on how many A*s puts you in a "comfortable" spot or give any advice along the lines of "You shouldn't apply with x amount of A*s" as your risk-aversion and circumstances are for you and you only to ascertain, and there are many obvious and (not-so obvious) insights everyone can make themselves. I couldn't find data on the correlation between GCSEs and offer rate for Maths specifically so do take this into mind (I'd expect higher grades for Maths - one of the most competitive degrees after all) but there isn't any reason for the trend to be any different from the general trend for all Oxford degrees (according to this FOI Request):
The Y-Axis represents the average number of those grades that applicants/offer holders held and the X-Axis is the individual grade. For example, offer holders on average, achieved around six Grade 9s. Oxford is a bit different though as they use a contextualised GCSE system that they are quite reluctant to share details about (as they believe they would lose their competitive edge) so there remains a good chance that they don't differentiate between 8s and 9s. The graph above does show the quality of students you're competing with, though. But this doesn't mean you should stress about not having perfect 9s throughout and crying about a couple of 8s, because they're probably treated as equivalents (A*s). And if we group 8s and 9s together, we observe the following:
(Predicted) A-Levels
If like me, you do all of Maths in Year 12 and Further Maths in Year 13 then (normally) your Maths grade (A* required) will serve as part of your three-grade offer, and you'll be expected to get an A* in Further Maths and an A in any other subject. That's the only thing I wanted to share because all other information is very readily accessible. Honestly, there isn't much use in analysing predicted A-Levels. If you meet the minimum requirement, then don't think too much about this. Just do your best. Yes, the majority will have all A*s - but that's more correlation than causation. As mentioned earlier, you can find all other relevant information on A-Levels online (Oxford's official pages, preferably) Interviews You will typically have two (sometimes three) interviews that are roughly 25m in length for Maths. They are graded from 1-9.
The broad descriptors for overall interview scores are as follows:
9 Exceptional Accept
8 Accept
7+ Borderline (top 1/3)
7 Borderline (middle 1/3)
7− Borderline (bottom 1/3)
6+ Below Borderline
6 Below Borderline
5 Probable Reject
4 Reject
3 Clear Reject
2 Clear Reject
1 Clear Reject
There really isn't any point in gathering data about them either. Once again, just do your best. These are obviously incredibly important. You'll also find much better interview advice/information elsewhere than I could provide. Though there is FOI data available (can't be bothered finding it again sorry - you'll have to take my word for it) regarding interview scores, and it seems that the vast majority of interview scores for offer holders are a 7 (no distinction between 7-, 7 and 7+ in data) with nearly all the others being 6s and 8s (it seems somewhat weighted towards the 8s though). There are some rare 9s too with a 9 in an interview fittingly guaranteeing an offer unless the other interviews go horribly wrong (<6). Lastly, the worst you could do and stand a legitimate chance of getting an offer seems to be a 7 in one interview and a 6 in the other.
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