Purpose of Insurance Choices for Law - Realistic vs Safety?

I am making this post because I have been getting very mixed advice on which of my university choices to insure. It seems that 1.5 months of contemplating this hasn't helped. The two options I have are UCL (A*AA) and Durham (AAB - contextual). For context as to why I am considering insuring an A*AA offer, my firm's offer is A*A*AA.
I study physics, maths, further maths, and music. My predicted grades are 4A*s and in my Y13 mocks, I achieved 3A*s and an A. However, I am super nervous about music (which was my A), as it is quite subjective (60% is coursework based on composition and performance). I am very scared of ending up with a B in the real thing, which means I would miss my firm.
I have been told that UCL will give me a better shot at the Bar. I have no legal connections otherwise, so it's always been a priority for me to go to a uni that will support me with maximising my chances at becoming a barrister. I love the course at UCL and the atmosphere, even though London accommodation seems terrifying to navigate. It is also much closer to home. However, the London vibes do put me off a bit, but I understand that being in London is also great for proximity to chambers, etc. And of course, the offer the A*AA. Because I do further maths, an A* in maths is very achievable; even on a bad day, I have never got below 90% and it is a very objective subject.
Durham is very beautiful, and I love the collegiate aspect. But I have been told that they are facing accommodation difficulties? Would this be even worse for me considering that they would be my insurance i.e. I would not be prioritised for accom, right? In addition, it is very far from home. However, their offer is AAB, which is very very low. I was advised that my insurance should be what I can realistically get though, not an extreme safety choice - the view is that it would be a shame to reject my UCL offer. I am slightly inclined to agree - if on results day, I got A*A*A*B and ended up at Durham, I think I would really regret not having insured UCL (even though Durham is a lovely uni and I'm sure I'd be very happy there).
Sorry for the essay of a post, I just wanted to get some more opinions in addition to the ones I've been receiving (which has been very helpful but quite one-sided, but I suspect the perceived 'prestige' of UCL over Durham is influencing some of it). I've also started feeling the pressure to make my firm and insurance choices before the grind for A levels properly sets in (and with the opening of student finance applications). Massive thanks to anyone who has read all of this.

Assuming the worst case scenario and you miss the grades for a UCL insurance choice because of your Music ( not a relevant subject for your degree) and they didn’t make an effort on results day, would you be prepared to take a gap year and perhaps get work experience to support your future career applications and earning some money to make living in London more affordable ?This is basically what it comes down to.
I would be tempted to do this, but my kids have all done either law or medical degrees where a large proportion of their cohorts were gap year applicants for one reason or another, and so my opinion on those years “out” is maybe not the same as others. I have always seen those 12 months as a time to mature and grow into your future student self but only you know your feelings about that possibility and whether you are prepared to accept the potential consequences of a UCL choice.

I hope that this discussion is academic and that you will go to Cambridge. But should you not have a crash and burn option? Crash and burn is unlikely, but it happens. I suggest that neither UCL nor Durham is a crash and burn option. What if you freak out on exam day and get Bs or lower?
I add that if you wish to practise at the commercial Bar, you really need to be in London. Or maybe Manchester at a pinch.

When you think of insurance, you are thinking of something bad. The question is how bad should you prepare for.
With your firm choice at A*A*AA, UCL's offer iwill give you a 2-grade margin, and Durham 4 grades. As UCL and Durham will offer similar career prospects, I would insure Durham.

I am making this post because I have been getting very mixed advice on which of my university choices to insure. It seems that 1.5 months of contemplating this hasn't helped. The two options I have are UCL (A*AA) and Durham (AAB - contextual). For context as to why I am considering insuring an A*AA offer, my firm's offer is A*A*AA.
I study physics, maths, further maths, and music. My predicted grades are 4A*s and in my Y13 mocks, I achieved 3A*s and an A. However, I am super nervous about music (which was my A), as it is quite subjective (60% is coursework based on composition and performance). I am very scared of ending up with a B in the real thing, which means I would miss my firm.
I have been told that UCL will give me a better shot at the Bar. I have no legal connections otherwise, so it's always been a priority for me to go to a uni that will support me with maximising my chances at becoming a barrister. I love the course at UCL and the atmosphere, even though London accommodation seems terrifying to navigate. It is also much closer to home. However, the London vibes do put me off a bit, but I understand that being in London is also great for proximity to chambers, etc. And of course, the offer the A*AA. Because I do further maths, an A* in maths is very achievable; even on a bad day, I have never got below 90% and it is a very objective subject.
Durham is very beautiful, and I love the collegiate aspect. But I have been told that they are facing accommodation difficulties? Would this be even worse for me considering that they would be my insurance i.e. I would not be prioritised for accom, right? In addition, it is very far from home. However, their offer is AAB, which is very very low. I was advised that my insurance should be what I can realistically get though, not an extreme safety choice - the view is that it would be a shame to reject my UCL offer. I am slightly inclined to agree - if on results day, I got A*A*A*B and ended up at Durham, I think I would really regret not having insured UCL (even though Durham is a lovely uni and I'm sure I'd be very happy there).
Sorry for the essay of a post, I just wanted to get some more opinions in addition to the ones I've been receiving (which has been very helpful but quite one-sided, but I suspect the perceived 'prestige' of UCL over Durham is influencing some of it). I've also started feeling the pressure to make my firm and insurance choices before the grind for A levels properly sets in (and with the opening of student finance applications). Massive thanks to anyone who has read all of this.

Thank you, this makes logical sense to me. Decided on Durham for insurance as of today evening!

Hi, I’ll try to keep this clear despite the detail I go in to
UCL:
Pros:
Cons:

Durham:
Pros:

Cons:

Overall:

If you have a true faith in your abilities, and know, as you mentioned, than you can get an A* in maths, really work for the same/ similar in FM( if not make absolutely sure you can get the A* in physics- and work extremely hard to secure the A in music-
‘I’ would personally take the risk with UCL, as I couldn’t allow myself to achieve the grades I’d already proven I could( as have you) but have chosen my settle option as my insurance, knowing for the next 3 years I should’ve had more faith in myself
However, it’s imperative to weigh up when to be confident, and when the risk just doesn’t need to be taken- eg- the consequences outweigh the rewards, which I think is very much the case when choosing UCL- this is my perspective as someone who will always have full faith in myself, despite what anybody else recommends/ says- e.g. the people warning you about what will happen if you mess up completely on results day- and I would insure that this doesn’t happen- and reward myself with either the firm offer or UCL
ALTHOUGH:
Gap year:
This is a huge risk, that could even result in you losing out on everything, and having to take a gap year, which I personally also had to do, but not because I missed my offer- I really really don’t recommend doing so, as the re- application process to such competitive institutions for law is a living nightmare, incredibly impractical, and very lonely, also requiring you to study for, and re-sit the LNAT which is torture.
Unpredictability of exams:
I knew many people, and myself, that were in similar positions to you at this point, and were CERTAIN of their abilities due to proving across 2 years that they could achieve A*s consistently, and when it came down to the exams, terrible papers, e.g. physics paper 2 aqa last year caused these same people to get either the first A they had received in their whole time in sixth form, or even a b on results day-
You always have an idea of what exams will be like, but literally never know whether you’ll be stitched with the paper, have a single off day, or mess up for a reason you never expected before- or perhaps even have too many exams too close to one another causing you to slip up-
The reason A*s are so difficult is because you have to maintain perfection in the face of these difficulties( particularly with high grade boundary subjects as I’m sure yours are, which is incredibly hard, as you can’t mess up whatsoever on those 2 subjects you need A*s in particularly- and even when you think you nailed them after the exam, you never know how other people did, and until the 14th August on results day, you simply won’t know( I thought I achieved 3 A*s and missed out on 2 of them for As instead.
Role of the insurance choice:
As you said in your thread, to answer this question directly, my ultimate recommendation must be made in relevance to what the purpose of this choice actually is-
As mentioned, with no way of predicting, or ensuring what grades you will get( at least entirely) and particularly with you having skepticism around music, and physics being so difficult( and also having a paper last year that caused the very best students( Oxbridge) to drop from an A* to an A/B( which could reoccur),calling UCL an ‘insurance choice’ with an offer of A*A*AA is simply unfitting- and acts as much as a firm choice as Cambridge does( an I’m sure is also a higher offer than your firm as Cambridge always offers A*AA if I’m not mistaken.
Durham however, has offered you grades that are undoubtedly achievable on the day, even in the event of a complete mess up across almost all subjects( which I’m sure won’t happen) but in case it does, which NOBODY is immune to- and therefore if your question is which is the better ‘insurance choice’ it is Durham without question.
Summary:
UCL is higher ranked globally than Durham- and is much more valuable( were you looking to practice abroad at some point) due to the global reputation of London and UCL ( especially compared to the isolated area of Durham, known almost exclusively to those in the UK
However you’re not looking to practice abroad, at least not currently, as you mentioned, and therefore this global advantage is irrelevant-
Whereas, in the UK specifically, Durham is ranked just below UCL, and also consistently ranks higher in magic circle firms than UCL (only below Oxbridge), which may be the same in your area of aspired practice.
Due to this equality between the two institutions in the location you seek to practice( even a potential edge for Durham in rankings), accepting UCL as an insurance choice makes absolutely no sense, as Durham will provide you with identical opportunities, with London firm representatives frequently coming down there, and thus identical networking opportunities, besides proximity to the firms themselves, which will be balanced out by you simply going down for experience in London anyway while you’re at Durham. Durham have offered you an offer it’s very difficult to reject, and ultimately, given it will have almost identical outcomes for you post graduation, choosing UCL would simply be a risk that doesn’t need to be taken, and can have severe consequences of a year waiting around( gap year) and even struggles getting offers from these places next year- bare in mind if you don’t meet your grades for UCL this year, there’s a high chance they would reject you again on a gap year, and you would have to resit ( and nail) the LNAT again, whereas, if you accept Durham as insurance now, regardless of what happens on exams, you can rest in fair certainty that you have an outstanding institution waiting for you THIS year, with no risk attached
UCL would only be the right choice were you looking to
Practice abroad, due to its superior international reputation, however because you’re looking to practice in London, Durham will have identical opportunities, for a significantly lower offer, which fulfils the role of an insurance, leaving you with the potential to get in to Cambridge if you nail exams as you aspire, and Durham to fall back on in a worst case scenario- that’s an outstanding position to be in-
Don’t take your revision or current grades for granted, keep your revision consistent from now until your last exam, ensure you secure the grades for your firm choice, and keep Durham as a safety pillow, to avoid a risk that doesn’t need to be taken- be faithful in your abilities, but realistic in whether you even need to take such a risk for UCL- and you will also have a great time at Durham, with its feel that parallels Oxbridge very closely, and as you mention the collegiate system is fantastic, and has the campus feel that makes you feel like you’re at university, particularly when you will already be living in London to practice anyway, this will be a good switch up- also don’t forget accommodation is hugely expensive in London, if that’s a problem for you, as that may be a bigger issue than the struggle to find it in Durham-. You’d have a good time at UCL, but may even get bored of the city- you’d feel like you were at University at Durham, which is hugely important
I also apologise for the ‘essay’ of a reply, but hopefully this should tell you everything you need, and inform your choice, allowing you need organise accommodation and student finance etc… to allow for a constant focus on A- Levels- but DO NOT go in to them thinking you know what to expect- as paper 2 physics took out the smartest people in my school last year( straight 9 GCSE, straight A* on all mocks at A- level) and also don’t take for granted your Durham offer, as they are almost just as harsh as UCL for who they let in- people with 3 A* achieved grades were rejected by them this year- and If you don’t accept now, that may be you next year If you miss every offer,
Durham is the right choice!
Best of luck for your exams, I really hope this helped and that you go an nail A*A*A*A, or whatever you wish to achieve!

I think I'll wait for the Netflix version.

Hi, I’ll try to keep this clear despite the detail I go in to
UCL:
Pros:
Cons:

Durham:
Pros:

Cons:

Overall:

If you have a true faith in your abilities, and know, as you mentioned, than you can get an A* in maths, really work for the same/ similar in FM( if not make absolutely sure you can get the A* in physics- and work extremely hard to secure the A in music-
‘I’ would personally take the risk with UCL, as I couldn’t allow myself to achieve the grades I’d already proven I could( as have you) but have chosen my settle option as my insurance, knowing for the next 3 years I should’ve had more faith in myself
However, it’s imperative to weigh up when to be confident, and when the risk just doesn’t need to be taken- eg- the consequences outweigh the rewards, which I think is very much the case when choosing UCL- this is my perspective as someone who will always have full faith in myself, despite what anybody else recommends/ says- e.g. the people warning you about what will happen if you mess up completely on results day- and I would insure that this doesn’t happen- and reward myself with either the firm offer or UCL
ALTHOUGH:
Gap year:
This is a huge risk, that could even result in you losing out on everything, and having to take a gap year, which I personally also had to do, but not because I missed my offer- I really really don’t recommend doing so, as the re- application process to such competitive institutions for law is a living nightmare, incredibly impractical, and very lonely, also requiring you to study for, and re-sit the LNAT which is torture.
Unpredictability of exams:
I knew many people, and myself, that were in similar positions to you at this point, and were CERTAIN of their abilities due to proving across 2 years that they could achieve A*s consistently, and when it came down to the exams, terrible papers, e.g. physics paper 2 aqa last year caused these same people to get either the first A they had received in their whole time in sixth form, or even a b on results day-
You always have an idea of what exams will be like, but literally never know whether you’ll be stitched with the paper, have a single off day, or mess up for a reason you never expected before- or perhaps even have too many exams too close to one another causing you to slip up-
The reason A*s are so difficult is because you have to maintain perfection in the face of these difficulties( particularly with high grade boundary subjects as I’m sure yours are, which is incredibly hard, as you can’t mess up whatsoever on those 2 subjects you need A*s in particularly- and even when you think you nailed them after the exam, you never know how other people did, and until the 14th August on results day, you simply won’t know( I thought I achieved 3 A*s and missed out on 2 of them for As instead.
Role of the insurance choice:
As you said in your thread, to answer this question directly, my ultimate recommendation must be made in relevance to what the purpose of this choice actually is-
As mentioned, with no way of predicting, or ensuring what grades you will get( at least entirely) and particularly with you having skepticism around music, and physics being so difficult( and also having a paper last year that caused the very best students( Oxbridge) to drop from an A* to an A/B( which could reoccur),calling UCL an ‘insurance choice’ with an offer of A*A*AA is simply unfitting- and acts as much as a firm choice as Cambridge does( an I’m sure is also a higher offer than your firm as Cambridge always offers A*AA if I’m not mistaken.
Durham however, has offered you grades that are undoubtedly achievable on the day, even in the event of a complete mess up across almost all subjects( which I’m sure won’t happen) but in case it does, which NOBODY is immune to- and therefore if your question is which is the better ‘insurance choice’ it is Durham without question.
Summary:
UCL is higher ranked globally than Durham- and is much more valuable( were you looking to practice abroad at some point) due to the global reputation of London and UCL ( especially compared to the isolated area of Durham, known almost exclusively to those in the UK
However you’re not looking to practice abroad, at least not currently, as you mentioned, and therefore this global advantage is irrelevant-
Whereas, in the UK specifically, Durham is ranked just below UCL, and also consistently ranks higher in magic circle firms than UCL (only below Oxbridge), which may be the same in your area of aspired practice.
Due to this equality between the two institutions in the location you seek to practice( even a potential edge for Durham in rankings), accepting UCL as an insurance choice makes absolutely no sense, as Durham will provide you with identical opportunities, with London firm representatives frequently coming down there, and thus identical networking opportunities, besides proximity to the firms themselves, which will be balanced out by you simply going down for experience in London anyway while you’re at Durham. Durham have offered you an offer it’s very difficult to reject, and ultimately, given it will have almost identical outcomes for you post graduation, choosing UCL would simply be a risk that doesn’t need to be taken, and can have severe consequences of a year waiting around( gap year) and even struggles getting offers from these places next year- bare in mind if you don’t meet your grades for UCL this year, there’s a high chance they would reject you again on a gap year, and you would have to resit ( and nail) the LNAT again, whereas, if you accept Durham as insurance now, regardless of what happens on exams, you can rest in fair certainty that you have an outstanding institution waiting for you THIS year, with no risk attached
UCL would only be the right choice were you looking to
Practice abroad, due to its superior international reputation, however because you’re looking to practice in London, Durham will have identical opportunities, for a significantly lower offer, which fulfils the role of an insurance, leaving you with the potential to get in to Cambridge if you nail exams as you aspire, and Durham to fall back on in a worst case scenario- that’s an outstanding position to be in-
Don’t take your revision or current grades for granted, keep your revision consistent from now until your last exam, ensure you secure the grades for your firm choice, and keep Durham as a safety pillow, to avoid a risk that doesn’t need to be taken- be faithful in your abilities, but realistic in whether you even need to take such a risk for UCL- and you will also have a great time at Durham, with its feel that parallels Oxbridge very closely, and as you mention the collegiate system is fantastic, and has the campus feel that makes you feel like you’re at university, particularly when you will already be living in London to practice anyway, this will be a good switch up- also don’t forget accommodation is hugely expensive in London, if that’s a problem for you, as that may be a bigger issue than the struggle to find it in Durham-. You’d have a good time at UCL, but may even get bored of the city- you’d feel like you were at University at Durham, which is hugely important
I also apologise for the ‘essay’ of a reply, but hopefully this should tell you everything you need, and inform your choice, allowing you need organise accommodation and student finance etc… to allow for a constant focus on A- Levels- but DO NOT go in to them thinking you know what to expect- as paper 2 physics took out the smartest people in my school last year( straight 9 GCSE, straight A* on all mocks at A- level) and also don’t take for granted your Durham offer, as they are almost just as harsh as UCL for who they let in- people with 3 A* achieved grades were rejected by them this year- and If you don’t accept now, that may be you next year If you miss every offer,
Durham is the right choice!
Best of luck for your exams, I really hope this helped and that you go an nail A*A*A*A, or whatever you wish to achieve!

Thank you so much for such a detailed and thorough response! It’s still really helpful. The unpredictability of exams does scare me quite a bit, especially with the recent physics papers in previous years 🥲 I completely get what you mean about the massively reduced risk with Durham. Also the wait for results is going to be long, so I want to be able to chill during the summer knowing that I’ll be going to a uni I like, even if things didn’t go very well during exam season.
[Also clarifying this - my Cambridge offer is A*A*AA and my UCL offer is A*AA (both are across any subjects). Sadly Cambridge doesn’t always offer A*AA]

Of course! That’s No problem at all
It’s totally understandable to be skeptical about their unpredictability, although one thing to use to your advantage is your subject choice-
I took 3 essay based subjects, so it was very difficult to predict in any way what potential questions would be, and there was no consistent strategy to help practice- although( despite your subjects being much harder than those😭, both physics, maths and FM come heavily down to simply practicing methods, and nailing them,
Therefore, although they may be unpredictable, if you spend the large focus of your time from now to your exams on purely doing every practice paper available, nothing should be unfamiliar on the day( bare in mind what happened with physics was a once every 5 year kind of thing’
And as you say, make sure with everything you can that you do absolutely everything in your power to do as well as you humanly can on every paper and every question, and only if that is done, you can go and have an amazing summer, knowing you’ve got Durham at worst case, and done all you can!

Just to pick up on one point from your earlier lengthy post.
I think you're massively overplaying the importance of a university's standing when it comes to practising overseas once you're qualified. Few firms will pay the slightest attention to where you studied your degree: it's all about your practice area, experience and (most importantly) the firm you're currently at.

Just to pick up on one point from your earlier lengthy post.
I think you're massively overplaying the importance of a university's standing when it comes to practising overseas once you're qualified. Few firms will pay the slightest attention to where you studied your degree: it's all about your practice area, experience and (most importantly) the firm you're currently at.

Never say never! I didn't become an international lawyer until I'd been in practice at the bar for thirty years. When I first took a position overseas, it was the name of my fancy chambers that mattered. My fancy degree from Oxford was mere background.

So do you think an llb (first class hopefully) from uni of York would be just as relevant for these overseas firms were someone to have had that same position in those chambers- as in the institution of your degree isn’t as relevant at this point later in career?