Help! Should I apply to top universities or aim lower?

I am a Year 12 student studying A-level History, Mathematics and Economics. I’m interested in applying to Political Science related subjects (HSPS, Politics and International Relations etc.). I want to apply to Cambridge, LSE, UCL, Warwick… But I’ve been feeling like my stats aren’t good enough for these and it’s best to aim for safer options that I’ll know I’ll get into.

My targets grades are AAA right now so when I do my mocks I’ll hopefully get my predicted grades to A*AA. My GCSE grades were 8887777766 with the 66 in both English’s. I’m doing an EPQ also. And I’m also definitely eligible for a Contextual offer.

What should I do? Is it better to aim lower for unis I’ll definitely get into or just apply for my dream unis?

You should do both.
You get to apply for five universities / courses. If you "aim lower for unis I’ll definitely get into" you may well get five offers. But what's the point in that? You can only choose one firm and one insurance. So to "waste" your other three choices on unis you'll "definitely get into" seems like a waste of time.
Equally, if you apply to five very competitive unis, you run the risk of getting no offers.
So apply to two or three "aspirational" ones and two or three where you feel more confident of an offer. Hopefully you'll then have a range of offers from which to make your firm / insurance decision.

In my own opinion I say you should go for whichever university you want to go to. Just remember to reserve one spot at least for uni you know you'll be guaranteed into

I am a Year 12 student studying A-level History, Mathematics and Economics. I’m interested in applying to Political Science related subjects (HSPS, Politics and International Relations etc.). I want to apply to Cambridge, LSE, UCL, Warwick… But I’ve been feeling like my stats aren’t good enough for these and it’s best to aim for safer options that I’ll know I’ll get into.
My targets grades are AAA right now so when I do my mocks I’ll hopefully get my predicted grades to A*AA. My GCSE grades were 8887777766 with the 66 in both English’s. I’m doing an EPQ also. And I’m also definitely eligible for a Contextual offer.
What should I do? Is it better to aim lower for unis I’ll definitely get into or just apply for my dream unis?

I am a Year 12 student studying A-level History, Mathematics and Economics. I’m interested in applying to Political Science related subjects (HSPS, Politics and International Relations etc.). I want to apply to Cambridge, LSE, UCL, Warwick… But I’ve been feeling like my stats aren’t good enough for these and it’s best to aim for safer options that I’ll know I’ll get into.
My targets grades are AAA right now so when I do my mocks I’ll hopefully get my predicted grades to A*AA. My GCSE grades were 8887777766 with the 66 in both English’s. I’m doing an EPQ also. And I’m also definitely eligible for a Contextual offer.
What should I do? Is it better to aim lower for unis I’ll definitely get into or just apply for my dream unis?

Your stats are fine they don't really look into GCSEs unless your A levels aren't exactly what they're looking for. Since you have As and above that's not an issue. Make a really good personal statement showing your interest and talk about your EPQ, all of these things needs to make you stand out. I advise maybe do 2 dream unis and the rest some good enough unis you wont mind going to. I got offers from LSE and UCL, just make sure you really focus on your personal statement and show how you really like Politics and IR, I applied for the same thing.

Thanks that’s helpful! I only just saw your reply lol. Do you have any book/supercurricular recs by any chance? Right now I’m reading When Victims Become Killers: Colonialism, Nativism, and the Genocide in Rwanda by Mahmood Mamdani and just finished ‘Dust’ by Yvonne Owour + ‘Orientalism’ Edward Said but not sure if these are scholarly enough, I heard that’s what they’re looking for (on the personal statement). Also I’d just generally like to expand my knowledge so I’m thinking these would be okay?

I am a Year 12 student studying A-level History, Mathematics and Economics. I’m interested in applying to Political Science related subjects (HSPS, Politics and International Relations etc.). I want to apply to Cambridge, LSE, UCL, Warwick… But I’ve been feeling like my stats aren’t good enough for these and it’s best to aim for safer options that I’ll know I’ll get into.
My targets grades are AAA right now so when I do my mocks I’ll hopefully get my predicted grades to A*AA. My GCSE grades were 8887777766 with the 66 in both English’s. I’m doing an EPQ also. And I’m also definitely eligible for a Contextual offer.
What should I do? Is it better to aim lower for unis I’ll definitely get into or just apply for my dream unis?