How many points can I drop to maintain my acceptance?

Good morning! I have been predicted a 40 at IB but I don’t feel confident that I can maintain this. Warwick requires 38 points 666 hl if god forbid I don’t get 38 666 how many points could I drop and still get a spot. I already have a conditional offer and I am a international student

For what course?

Law LLB

Well, anything below the requirements in your offer means that they are not obliged to offer you a place. But I suspect that they will if you get 36 or above. This is based on the "Historical entry grades data" section of this UCAS page which shows that they've accepted a high proportion of offer-holders in the recent past who achieved just below the typical offer grades. (Have a play with the "How do you compare" section.)
To put those statistics into context, note that for 2023 entry, Warwick's typical offer for Law LLB was AAA at A level or 36 in the IB. It's only for 2024 entry onwards that it became A*AA or IB 38.
Also, what's happened in the past is no guarantee of what will happen in the future.

This is amazing! Thank you for putting in so much to for your response! Appreciate it