The question: Assess the extent to which prediction is the most important factor for reducing the effects of tropical storms
Answer:
It is certainly true that prediction is quite important but there are other aspects to be considered as well such as monitoring, protection and planning.
Prediction is certainly important as we can now look for certain patterns in clouds to predict tropical storms. Companies like the Global Precipitation Measurement measure rainfall in high risk areas every three hours and NASA sends aeroplanes into storms to collect data to predict their paths. This data can be put into supercomputers which then predict the path of the storm - this already proved effective in reducing the effect of Cyclone Phailin in India, and saved many unaware people from death. Therefore, monitoring and prediction are important as they ensure that people can be removed from high rusk areas as soon as possible
However, there are reasons why prediction and monitoring are not the most important aspects as planning and protection should also be considered. In order to protect people we can install hurricane shelters on windows and cut down trees in surrounding areas to ensure there is open space for people to evacuate - the hurricane shelters protect against the mere force of the storm. Planning is also important as we must make sure that we have fuel in our cars to evacuate briskly, in addition to preparing disaster supply kits for times of supply shortage and discussing with family what to do and where the nearest evacuation shelter is. Therefore, we can see that planning and protection is arguably more important as it makes the evacuation as a result of prediction easier.
To conclude, prediction is not the most important factor, nor is monitoring as computers can make errors due to the unpredictable nature of storms or malfunctions. Instead protection is the most important as sometimes people may not be able to escape their houses on time so this ensures they are protected from the blast of the storms. Planning is not necessarily the most important as rescuers will eventually come with supplies
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