Conditional firm and insurance with terrible grades

I have received 3 conditional offers from York, Bristol and Birmingham but I’m not sure which two to pick as my firm and insurance. I’ve visited Birmingham but not the other two unis. I need to make a decision quickly as the deadline to accept or reject (5th June) is fast approaching.
The problem is my grades are terrible. I’m 22 years old and doing an Access to HE course at college, all my offers want a minimum of 30 distinctions and 15 merits or better. So far I’ve mainly been getting merits, with one pass and zero distinctions. My teacher says I was too ambitious and snobby in only applying to RG unis, despite me explaining multiple times over the course of this academic year that university isn’t free, I genuinely need it for my future career in a highly competitive industry, and besides it was my dream to attend an RG. She also said that the difference between Merit and Distinction quality of an assignment is roughly Level 3 and Level 4 /first year of university respectively, and that I should consider Clearing.
Anyway, the point of my post is that I have these theee offers, two of which I need to firm and insure, that I am also at risk of losing all due to my poor grades. I don’t want to reject all three as a small part of me has this vain hope that one of them might still take me, or give me a reduced offer or something. The way I see it, it’s giving checkmate. I’m in a doomed if I do / don’t type of situation. Grateful if anyone has any thoughts or advice on this, thanks.