Is there any point in applying to Baliol for PPE?

Applications by college are here. You will see that Balliol is extremely oversubscribed for PPE. Make of that what you will.
https://public.tableau.com/views/UniversityofOxford-CollegeSuccessRates2023/CollegeSuccessRates?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&:showTabs=y&:showVizHome=no

This is terrifying, but very helpful. Thank you

Hi, I'm in a similar situation to you but for a different course (applying for Classics at St Johns) and perhaps the way I approached it may help you:
If I apply to the highly competitive college then I have a chance of getting in. If I apply to another college/ do an open application, the chances of me getting pooled to the highly competitive college would be next to zero.
Therefore, I would say apply to Balliol or Christ Church- it won't make a change to your chances of getting into Oxford due to pooling so really, you can only gain from declaring your college choice.

I'm currently applying to Oxford for PPE, and I've just about wrapped up every aspect of my UCAS except for college choice. I've just spent hours looking at the student life, accommodations, and (for lack of a better word) vibe of all the colleges that offer PPE. I've narrowed it down to Baliol, St John's, Magdalen, Christ Church, Trinity, and New.
Baliol and Christ Church are two of my leading choices within the shortlist. I'm aware of how competitive these two colleges are, particularly for PPE. I know Oxford has a pooling system, so applying to a competitive college doesn't decrease your chance of acceptance; it may just increase your chance of being pooled, which I don't mind at all. That being said, is there any point in my applying to Baliol or Christ Church at all if I'm likely to be pooled if not rejected entirely?
For context, I currently have ten APs at grade 5, and I'm anticipating another six at grade 5 this year. On the TSA, I tend to score between 42-45/50 on practices for Section 1, although admittedly, I have been neglecting to give TSA prep the attention it needs. I know statistics aren't everything, but I truly have no clue how else I should gauge my chances, and by extension, whether or not I should apply to Baliol or Christ Church.

No offence but this does not make sense.
If you apply to a competitive or oversubscribed college, your chances of getting in depend on the college. Yes, there is the pooling system but Oxford does not pool all students who are not accepted by their main college. Sadly many of them are rejected. Oxford rejects more
applicants before interviews than Cambridge.
There is a concept of fishes and ponds. It is better to be a ‘big’ fish in a small pond i.e. be a top competitive applicant in a less subscribed college than a ‘small’ fish in a big pond i.e. a standard competitive applicant in a top college who would be competing against insanely top applicants.
It is more sensible to select a less competitive college and increase your actual chance of getting in. The pooling process then would be out of your hands, but you tried to control the first instance.
I am not trying to tell you to play the ‘College game’ and you should definitely apply to where you want. I was simply trying to push back a little on your thought process.
An advice that I was given at school (years ago) was “your focus should be getting into Oxbridge, not getting into a particular college”.
Good luck

This is an incorrect understanding of how pooling works.
Using Law as an example, per Keble's admissions feedback for 2024-2025, "The decision about which candidates to interview is taken at the faculty level by assessing all candidates who had applied to the University, and not just those who had applied to, or had been allocated to, Keble." and "Several candidates were reallocated between the colleges in the University before the interview stage in order to address, in particular, any problems of over- or under-subscription at any particular college(s). It may be, therefore, that we considered a particular candidate’s application either because they had applied to Keble, or had made an open application, or because they had chosen another college but were reallocated to Keble. This had no influence on our final decision. We also interviewed several candidates who had already been interviewed for a place at another college. Again, this had no bearing on any of the conclusions that we reached."
The Law Faculty also explains its admissions process here: https://www.keble.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Law-Feedback-2024-Department.pdf. There is faculty-level pooling at two stages, the interview invitation stage and then at the interviews themselves.
Applying to a more oversubscribed college does not affect one's chances of getting into Oxford overall. It does however mean that there is a higher risk of being reallocated to a different college. If you make an open application, you will be allocated to a less oversubscribed college at the pre-interview stage, but might still be reallocated elsewhere due to faculty-level pooling.

I'm currently applying to Oxford for PPE, and I've just about wrapped up every aspect of my UCAS except for college choice. I've just spent hours looking at the student life, accommodations, and (for lack of a better word) vibe of all the colleges that offer PPE. I've narrowed it down to Baliol, St John's, Magdalen, Christ Church, Trinity, and New.
Baliol and Christ Church are two of my leading choices within the shortlist. I'm aware of how competitive these two colleges are, particularly for PPE. I know Oxford has a pooling system, so applying to a competitive college doesn't decrease your chance of acceptance; it may just increase your chance of being pooled, which I don't mind at all. That being said, is there any point in my applying to Baliol or Christ Church at all if I'm likely to be pooled if not rejected entirely?
For context, I currently have ten APs at grade 5, and I'm anticipating another six at grade 5 this year. On the TSA, I tend to score between 42-45/50 on practices for Section 1, although admittedly, I have been neglecting to give TSA prep the attention it needs. I know statistics aren't everything, but I truly have no clue how else I should gauge my chances, and by extension, whether or not I should apply to Baliol or Christ Church.

I'm currently applying to Oxford for PPE, and I've just about wrapped up every aspect of my UCAS except for college choice. I've just spent hours looking at the student life, accommodations, and (for lack of a better word) vibe of all the colleges that offer PPE. I've narrowed it down to Baliol, St John's, Magdalen, Christ Church, Trinity, and New.
Baliol and Christ Church are two of my leading choices within the shortlist. I'm aware of how competitive these two colleges are, particularly for PPE. I know Oxford has a pooling system, so applying to a competitive college doesn't decrease your chance of acceptance; it may just increase your chance of being pooled, which I don't mind at all. That being said, is there any point in my applying to Baliol or Christ Church at all if I'm likely to be pooled if not rejected entirely?
For context, I currently have ten APs at grade 5, and I'm anticipating another six at grade 5 this year. On the TSA, I tend to score between 42-45/50 on practices for Section 1, although admittedly, I have been neglecting to give TSA prep the attention it needs. I know statistics aren't everything, but I truly have no clue how else I should gauge my chances, and by extension, whether or not I should apply to Baliol or Christ Church.

I'm a big believer in just applying to the unis and colleges (where applicable) you want to and seeing what happens. Don't let the competition throw you too much!
Without knowing, in 2006 I managed to apply to the most oversubscribed college, and one of the most popular/oversubscribed courses at said college (music). When I got to the interviews (they were face-to-face back in the day ), there were rumours that we were all up against one of the BBC Young Musician of the Year winners - AND he had won BBC Young Composer of the Year around the same time. Gulp. It was a tad terrifying.
I got into said course at said college, whereas he didn't. You never know how the universe ends up working out these things: so just reach for the stars (within sensible reason) and go for it!

Did you pray to God? 🙂 lol

I didn't on that occasion. I just tried not to let rumours get to me, and to concentrate on myself and on keeping calm.
It was only years later I found out exactly what had panned out with the situation, anyway, and the huge backstory behind it

Everything is decreed by God Allah almighty. But only dua prayer can change the divine decree. 😉
So, do you perform in a musical band right now?

Everything is decreed by God Allah almighty. But only dua prayer can change the divine decree. 😉
So, do you perform in a musical band right now?

I'm Roman Catholic, not Muslim And whilst I'm a huge believer in the power of prayer, I'm also a big believer in not sitting on one's laurels and being proactive about one's own life wherever possible
No I don't perform in a musical band. Never have

I thought you would be playing some instruments like the guitar or drums or even keyboard or piano? 😧 Or was Music at Oxford highly theoretical?