How much does TMUA affect acceptance?

You are intellectually strong for both Imperial and Warwick with those anticipated grades, which include AAA*A in Maths and Further Maths. But the TMUA has a significant impact: For competitive applicants, Imperial usually seeks a score of 6.0 or higher. Warwick is more accommodating and frequently accepts scores between 5.0 and 5.5, particularly if your grades and personal statement are outstanding. Your prospects at Warwick stay strong if you receive a 5, but your chances at Imperial become more competitive. However, you can still be considered if you have a compelling personal statement, excellent anticipated grades, and a good teacher reference.

I have a predicted of A* for maths, A* for FM, A* for CS and an A for physics and plan to apply for a mathematics degree in Imperial, Warwick, Edinburgh, Bristol and St Andrews - I’m gonna be taking the TMUA on Tuesday, but I can’t score above a 5.5 on the past papers. If I can keep up my grades and have a strong PS, but get a TMUA score of 5, what are my chances of getting into Imperial or Warwick? Any input will be appreciated - thanks!

Hey I would not worry too much about TMUA if you are applying to Warwick. They do look at it but it is not everything. Many students get offers even with scores around 5 if the rest of the application looks strong.
Your predicted grades are amazing and if your personal statement shows real interest in maths you should still have a good chance.
Imperial usually puts more weight on TMUA, but even there the result is only part of the picture. A strong academic record and a clear motivation can still help a lot.
Try your best on Tuesday but don’t panic if the score is not very high. Many people feel the same and still get good offers later.