What are odds for Oxford

Hello, I would say your chances are slim to none.
Have a look here, no one with below 5 A*s at GCSE got shortlisted, and shortlist is heavily based on GCSE and BMAT score.
An exceptional BMAT score could increase your chances ever so slightly, but you have to remember there are people applying that probably have a similar BMAT score to you but 9 A*s at GCSE - in this scenario they have no real reason to pick you over them.

Yes, but you are also failing to account for the fact that OP has been on free school meals his entire school career. Those people getting 9A*s probably go to good schools and haven't had perhaps as tumultuous an experience as OP. Oxford definitely take these things into account.
also, if they are predicted 3A*s at A level, it shows that they clearly are somewhat intelligent, and Oxford would see this.

Hi! I want honesty, just so I know whether to expect an interview or not!
I'm predicted 3A* maths biology chemistry and I've applied for biomedical sciences. I got 88766554 at GCSE, with extenuating circumstances (I was seriously ill, with a 40% attendance in year 10). My 887 grades were in science and maths. I've also always qualified for FSM.
I think I got 50-60 on the BMSAT, but I won't know my actual score until January.
Thank you !

Yes, but you are also failing to account for the fact that OP has been on free school meals his entire school career. Those people getting 9A*s probably go to good schools and haven't had perhaps as tumultuous an experience as OP. Oxford definitely take these things into account.
also, if they are predicted 3A*s at A level, it shows that they clearly are somewhat intelligent, and Oxford would see this.

People with notable extenuating circumstances apply to Oxford each and every year, but it is a fact that Oxford does not tend to consider people at all if they do not meet a certain GCSE threshold regardless of their situation, as reflected through statistics every year.
The reality is that people with extenuating circumstances that get into Oxbridge are people that have managed to perform well despite their circumstances, and not those that perform worse because of them.
But, you are right in that no one knows. If OP is passionate about Oxford, then they should absolutely apply.

You are right to a large extent, however there is always a lingering arbitrariness to Oxbridge entry selection criteria. The smartest person I have ever met who got straight 9s, highest in the country in some GCSEs, aced his TSA and got all A* predicted grades (4A*), still got rejected by Oxford. He wasn't just smart on paper though, he was also an excellent communicator and was a national finalist debater in the Oxford schools debating competition. He was, however, applying for PPE at Merton which is very competitive, so such a rejection is more explicable. I am applying this year for Philosophy and Russian and although I have good stats on paper- I also got all 9s (albeit from a private school) and am predicted 3A*s, and have fairly high level supercurriculars, you can still never be sure with Oxford applications at all. Everyone should just go for it really, because there are always people who no-one thinks will get in yet get in, and people who are expected to get in but don't, like my friend from the year above.