The first thing to be said about the proposal to deploy British and French troops to Ukraine is that it is nothing more than one part of a face-saving exercise for two leaders who are deeply unpopular at home and are desperately trying to make themselves look important on the world stage.
It was not long ago that Sir Keir Starmer declared that Ukraine was on "an irreversible path" to NATO membership. In an attempt to hide this glaring error of judgement, he dreamed up the idea of a "coalition of the willing", which has in reality proved to be not very willing at all. The three other major European powers - Germany, Poland and Italy - have all ruled out stationing troops inside Ukraine. President Macron, safe in the knowledge that he will be out of office next year, has gone along with the idea but there is widespread opposition on both the left and right, notably voiced by the leading contender in the presidential race:
Far-right leader Bardella renews push against French troops in Ukraine: The comments are likely to prompt concerns over the durability of any French security commitments to Kyiv.https://www.politico.eu/article/french-far-right-leader-jordan-bardella-renews-push-against-troops-in-ukraine/French withdrawal would leave Britain exposed as the only willing member of the coalition of the willing.
Even if the idea was eventually to take shape the logistical problems involved would render it futile. The latest suggestions that have emerged are that Britain would send "less than" 7,500 military personnel, and the French a possible 6,000, all of whom would be an obvious target in the event of hostilities breaking out. According to Sir Richard Shirreff, former deputy commander of NATO, at least 50,000 would be required to provide a meaningful reassurance force or an enforcement force. The most recent government figures show there are around 147,000 people in the UK armed forces, with just over half assigned to the army.
Even conservative estimates of 10,000 troops on deployment would put pressure on the UK’s Regular Army, according to Stuart Young, a former engineer officer in the Royal Navy and visiting fellow at Cranfield University. Thousands more would be required to undertake training and other activities in readiness for deployment.“To sustain a force of 10,000 troops on the ground in Ukraine, a total of 30,000 troops would be needed,” he said. “This total does not include personnel undertaking support and planning activities back in the UK.
“In total, this represents over 40 per cent of the British Army. Such a deployment could only be sustained for a short period before the impact on the Army’s other tasks becomes very significant. There would be similar impacts on the Royal Air Force and, to a lesser extent, the Royal Navy.”
Unsurprisingly, much public reaction here in the UK has been scathing, with suggestions that politicians should send their own sons and daughters first. Reform on the right is opposed and the Green party on the left demands a "robust international mandate". Even the Conservatives are sceptical.
And all this is predicated on the assumption that Russia will sign a peace treaty that includes Western troops inside Ukraine. While that is not beyond the bounds of possibility, it will no doubt come with strict limitations that would render the whole plan an expensive and dangerous waste of time.
In the event of a peace treaty and/or a ceasefire (which I have been advocating for the last three years, during which time Western leaders were telling Ukraine to fight on) there
will be a need for robust security guarantees. But this particular proposal is anything but that.