Bird Flu - who's worried?

I was just reading in the paper about bird flu, and how the Government aren't very worried about it, claiming it will only kill 50,000 people (only!?) in this country but that it's likely to be ten times that amount. 'Parently a bird flu pandemic is imminent, and that amongst people who have contracted it, the mortality rate is 72%. Some official people say it's not going to happen, so I don't want to be scaremongering. So who's worried?

Reply 1

What's Chico Time Precious?

12

I would say i was a tad concerned after reading an article on the BBC website about it at the weekend.
But theres lots of theories about what could happen, and i think the media have maybe just ran with one of those particular scenarios as the main story.

Reply 2

RetiredAccount89

18

lessthanthree

some people are supposedly naturally immune, so they're currently checking out what it is in these people who've been exposed but not contracting it.

As someone who's regularly around birds [and sick ones at that] I'm concerned, but I plan to get vaccinated.

My MAJOR concern is going to be human-human transmission, that they've not really been able to totally disprove since a mother caught it off her daughter who'd been necking chickens...and the mother hadn't been anywhere near a bird.

The thing is, with that mortality rate, that it's bound to be high because on the scale of things, not that many people have been diagnosed with it - it's almost like me saying something is 50% likely to kill you when 2 people have had it and one died.

There's only one human fatal strain that I know of, I think it's the H5N1. Last time I looked 69 people had it, and 46 died. This fills me with a bit of hope, because much more than 69 people will have been exposed to the sick birds.

Sorry chuck, way off the mark. Did my dissertation on pandemic influenza, and i can tell you all for sure that no vaccination in the world is going to save you from this puppy. When it finally breaks out in force, and it will, it is going to be horendous.
You are of course massively more at risk if you regulary are around birds. When there was a big H5N1 in hong kong a few years back, many of the deaths occured after the cull - due to poor disposal of the bodies.

There are other subtypes that are equally worrying. H9N2 has been attributed to some bird-human deaths as well, and has been seen to be circulating in the swine populations as well. one of the H9N2 types shares a common internal gene with H5N1 which make sit resistant to interferon. Thats what kills you - not viral replication, but your own immune system going schiz against it. The recent finding of influenza virus in the GI tract of some victims is particulary interesting. Previously this wasnt known, but it might be indicating a new phase in the viral evolution, possibly a divergence to a new type which will infect the GI tract only, and be spread faecal orally - as occurs in wild fowl, the natural host of influenza. A few years back H7N7 popped up in Netherlands, and killed one person.

That said, pandemic influenza isn't something new. Its a threat that has been a round for centuries. Its the modern day plague. Its never going to go away.
Pandemic influenza is not worth you worrying about simply because there is nothing you can do about it. Its like the old threat of a nuclear winter. You can only get on with your lives, and put it out of mind.

Reply 3

AT82

Its one of them things, yes its somthing on the back of my mind a little bit, but as of most things you can't worry about everything. If I believed the media Bin Larden would have put a plain into Seffafield by now and BSE would have wiped out half the country.

Reply 4

Adhsur

15

Could anyone direct me to an article so that I don't feel really silly not knowing what's going on?

Reply 5

What's Chico Time Precious?

12

Adhsur

Could anyone direct me to an article so that I don't feel really silly not knowing what's going on?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4345079.stm :frown:

There do seem to be alot of these types of article popping up recently

Reply 6

RetiredAccount89

18

lessthanthree

I know - the only vaccination currently being stockpiled is for a lesser strain, but hell, any protection at all is better than nothing. I know a fair amount of stuff about birdflu, shocking as it may seem ;_;

Yes, and the rats have been carrying it on their feet, apparently. Which is just dandy.

I really don't mean to sound arrogant, but you are wrong. Being vaccinated against a lesser strain may actually endanger you even more. Like i said, the virus mainly kills people of our age groups through immunopathology - we over react to it.
If you slightly recognise it, but not enough to clear it, it makes it increasingly likely that you will have a bad raction to infection.

I know that sounds barmy, but you've ogt to understand that the way PANDEMIC influenza is produced, and affects people, is different to EPIDEMIC influenza.

...A crash helmet will help protect you if you get knocked off your bike by a car, but will have little effect if you are hit by a train...

Reply 7

Cellardore

11

from what i've heard, i thought that you could only catch it if you have been exposed to 'birds' alot. So i'm not really that worried tbh

Reply 8

Zebrastripes

13

It's not in the television headlines so much anymore, so i forgot about it. But then i read my travel book as i'm going to China next week, and there are many bird markets, so i won't be going to see those. :P

Reply 9

RetiredAccount89

18

lessthanthree

could well do, but I'm more leaning towards my idiotic perception of "If I don't feel worried, and I feel like I've been vaccinated, I won't give myself psychosomatic symptoms" It's more of a mental thing for me. I'm not really trying to suggest the benefits to my immune system. Warped, I know. I've only really looked at this from a vet's perspective; not a doctors. I've only really been exposed to the implications for vets.

What I've read is that the stockpile of vaccines is actually going to be for H5N1, which is not what I'd thought previously. And if I remember correctly, H5 is the one that's been doing most of the human killing.

I guess they can't vaccinate unles they KNOW the pandemic's being caused by H5, as opposed to H7 AND 9

ps: this is one of my sources in the research I did:

Cellardore - 1918, 50million died. Virus came from birds spread to pigs then jumped to humans within a 20yr period.
1957 - around 600,000 deaths worldwide
1968 - around 400,000 deaths worldwide

All these pandemics have jumped form birds. The difference is these have all involved reassortment with human viruses in humans(except 1918).

Lessthanthree - I stand corrected by whatever RG webster says - hes the god of influenza at St Judes, though i remain slightly dubious for 2 reasons.
1) The other guy cited works for a vaccine company
2) Last time there was a great fear of a pandemic was in Fort Dix in 1976. The americans responded with a mass vaccination which resulted in 56 deaths, and hundreds of disabilities due to the Guillain-barre resulting from the vaccine.

Reply 10

technik

13

i think a rogue nuke will be more dangerous than this

Reply 11

RetiredAccount89

18

lessthanthree

yikes - is that because they vacced the wrong strain?

No, because the vaccine was (and IS) intrinsically dangerous. I mean think about it logically. It takes donkeys years to get a vaccine approved, and they have to try to force them through quick as hell...leads to nasty vaccines being approved.
its what happens when politicians are the policy makers.

Reply 12

AngelofnoColour

14

What are the symptoms of bird flu?

Reply 13

RetiredAccount89

18

BlueAngel

What are the symptoms of bird flu?

Lets get this straight right now.
All Influenza comes from birds - its simply a matter of how long it has been in the human population.
You know that flu affects a ridiculous amount of animals?
Even seals and whales get flu!

Reply 14

Mrs_F

15

I'm quite terrified. I was talking to my fiance about it the other week when it all came about - I was getting really scared that we might die. It's scary the more you think about it - I don't want to die :frown:

Reply 15

RetiredAccount89

18

lynseyweth

I'm quite terrified. I was talking to my fiance about it the other week when it all came about - I was getting really scared that we might die. It's scary the more you think about it - I don't want to die :frown:

You really have more chance of dying every time you get into a car. Don't worry yourself over something you cannot control.

Reply 16

hazzie1

1

I know someone will probably contradict me, but doesn't it sound a little bit like SARS, that had us all crazily washing our hands last year yet turned out not to come here at all? (I hope I don't jinx myself!)

Reply 17

caffecooki

10

no1 told me about it!! :frown:

i'm scared now!!

Reply 18

RetiredAccount89

18

hazzie1

I know someone will probably contradict me, but doesn't it sound a little bit like SARS, that had us all crazily washing our hands last year yet turned out not to come here at all? (I hope I don't jinx myself!)

And which killed over a dozen in Canada - a developed country.
Besides, I think most people are so blooming stupid, they don't wash their hands after the toilet, or whilst preparing food, and then wonder where they caught their 'tummy bug' from.

Reply 19

jpowell

15

People these days are bloody whinging cowards. If it isn't terrorism or BSE or Cancer causing dye it's bird flu. Just accept that you are going to die eventually and then you can be free from living your life in fear.

Bird Flu - who's worried?

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