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    So we have no reason to believe or worry that there is going to be any change soon? Like rabbits ruling the earth...
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    (Original post by kizdesai)
    So we have no reason to believe or worry that there is going to be any change soon? Like rabbits ruling the earth...
    Changes are happening all the time. The whole rabbit thing seems a little improbable though

    (Original post by Bismarck)
    Maybe we should. :p:
    I'd rather not. I've heard worrying is bad for your health :p:
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    Someone was a bit upset that I called China 'a joke' a while back. Well I didn't mean it in an insulting way - just that the way the country is run would be funny if it wasn't real!

    Looking in the South China Morning Post today:

    - 13 police officers detained in Sichuan province for taking bribes from pickpockets to allow them to ply their trade at Chengdu train station.

    - In Yanqing, local reporters were verbally warned not to write about the new foot and mouth scare sweeping the North of China despite the government's vow post-sars to be more transparent.

    - On Thursday night the new Star Wars film was released in Bejing, by Friday the DVD was already being sold on the streets.

    - In Shanxi, an off duty police officer (Liu Limin) got fed up sitting in his car at a gridlocked junction while behind the car of another off duty police officer (Li Zhongyi, who he did not know). Both men got out their cars and began to argue, then drove off. Liu then made a call on his cell phone and when Li drove into the parking lot he was set upon by a gang of nine thugs who left him for dead. AND six of the thugs Liu had hired were former convicts and he had been part of their prior arrests!!
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    (Original post by Geordie_in_HK)
    - On Thursday night the new Star Wars film was released in Bejing, by Friday the DVD was already being sold on the streets.
    haha, I was in Shanghai over the weekend and about 100 people tried to sell me a copy.
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    (Original post by Geordie_in_HK)
    Looking in the South China Morning Post today
    The SCMP isn't exactly non-biased - if anything, more biased towards the English-speaking world. A more blatant example is the Spike magazine. There's more credibility if you were to refer to Ming Pao.

    (Original post by Geordie_in_HK)
    On Thursday night the new Star Wars film was released in Bejing, by Friday the DVD was already being sold on the streets.
    You could similarly find pirated DVD's all over HK if you know where to look - Mong Kok, Wanchai and Causeway Bay. As you're in HK, you probably have bought some DVD's yourself... I know a lot of people who make trips to HK specifically to buy them.

    (Original post by Geordie_in_HK)
    In Shanxi, an off duty police officer (Liu Limin) got fed up sitting in his car at a gridlocked junction while behind the car of another off duty police officer (Li Zhongyi, who he did not know). Both men got out their cars and began to argue, then drove off. Liu then made a call on his cell phone and when Li drove into the parking lot he was set upon by a gang of nine thugs who left him for dead. AND six of the thugs Liu had hired were former convicts and he had been part of their prior arrests
    So what? If someone were to mess with a HK triad gangster, they'd be faced with more than nine thugs.
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    (Original post by Kondar)
    haha, I was in Shanghai over the weekend and about 100 people tried to sell me a copy.
    And you probably bought one didn't you?
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    (Original post by supervin)
    And you probably bought one didn't you?
    No, I didnt, it was most likely a terrible copy. However, I have bought a lot of pirated DVDs- its one of the guilty pleasures of living in China.

    Imagine going to Best Buy and looking through thousands of DVDs that all cost around 75 cents...
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    I buy pirate DVD's all the time, they're brilliant. But they should be stopped.

    I don't get your point about triad gangsters - they're criminals through and through. But the Chinese police are meant to uphold the law - being corrupt and hiring criminals goes against that.

    And yeah you can buy pirated DVD's in HK but the crack down at the moment is pretty severe and it's not as blatant or as widespread as in China.

    The SCMP has SLIGHTLY more critical comments about China but it is still a Chinese newspaper and therefore runs a risk if it does not tow the party line.

    TIME magazine was banned in China between 1949-1999 because the family that owns the magazine supported the Goumindang. It's still near impossible to buy time magazine in China and anti-China pieces are almost always cut out with scalpels.
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    China definitely has plenty of problems, and it obviously won't sustain current growth rates forever, but it's not unreasonable to see it as a major power (maybe not superpower) in our lifetime.

    Whether it will be a superpower is kind of irrelevant, because it doesn't need to be equal to the US to exert influence over world affairs. Even getting part way there would be enough.

    Although the US influences most world affairs, it cannot contol them outright, and neither would China have to be able to do so.

    Also, as mentioned by another poster, Japan is not a completely accurate comparison because it lacks the potential for an internal market. Japan has limited space, population, and resources. Perhaps more importantly, it also lacks the political will to turn its economic power into political and/or military influence. Whether that will change in the next few years remains to be seen.
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    (Original post by evilcitizen)
    Perhaps more importantly, [Japan] also lacks the political will to turn its economic power into political and/or military influence.
    It's because they're restricted from doing so after WWII and I'd say rightly so from all the atrocities committed back then.
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    Recent Headline in China Daily News- one of the biggest papers in China

    Cold war with China may turn hot
    William S. Lind
    Sunday 22nd May, 2005 (UPI)

    A war with China -- hot or cold -- would be perhaps the greatest strategic blunder the United States could make, beyond those it has already made.

    The end result would be the same as that from the 20th century wars between Britain and Germany: it reduced both to second-rate powers. In the 21st century, the real victors would be the non-state forces of the Fourth Generation, who would fill the gap created by the reduction of both Chinese and U.S. power.

    Given my foreboding, I was struck by the title of Robert D. Kaplan's article in the June Atlantic Monthly, 'How We Would Fight China.' Kaplan has written some excellent material on the breakdown of the state and the rise of non-state elements. Here, however, I think he gets it wrong. Kaplan sees the 21st century being defined by a new Cold War between China and the United States, rather than the clash between states and non-state forces. I believe this phenomenon will be far more century-shaping than any conflict between states.

    While Kaplan writes about how the United States could use naval power -- subtly -- to contain a rising China, within the framework of a Bismarckian Realpolitik that accommodates everyone's interests, he recognizes the danger to all of a Cold War turning hot. He writes, 'Only a similarly pragmatic approach (similar to Bismarck's) will allow us to accommodate China's inevitable re-emergence as a great power. The alternative will be to turn the earth of the twenty-first century into a battleground.'

    Regrettably, there are influential voices in Washington that want a war with China, the sooner the better. The most likely cause is Taiwan.

    Few in Washington understand why China is so adamant about Taiwan remaining officially part of China. The reason is China's history, throughout which her greatest threat has not been foreign invasion but internal division. China has often fractured, sometimes into many parts. Today, Beijing fears that if one province, Taiwan, achieves independence, others will follow. China will go to war, including with the United States, to prevent that from happening.

    Correctly, Kaplan observes that China is not able to successfully fight a sea and air war with America: China has committed itself to significant military spending, but its navy and air force will not be able to match that of the U.S. for some decades. The Chinese are therefore not going to do America the favor of engaging in conventional air and naval battles, like those fought in the Pacific during World War II.

    So how would China fight? If we send some carrier battle groups to intervene in a war between China and Taiwan, I think China will do something Kaplan does not mention: It will go nuclear at sea from the outset.

    When the Cold War ended, we found out that the Soviet Union planned to do exactly that (so much for Reagan administration plans to send our carriers charging up to the Kola Peninsula).

    The Chinese might employ nuclear-armed anti-ship missiles and torpedoes, fired from submarines or surface ships, but I think her little surprise for us may be nastier. Kaplan briefly mentions that China 'may eventually be able to lob missiles accurately at moving ships in the Pacific' from deep in Chinese territory. I think those missiles, ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, may be ready now -- perhaps with a bit of clandestine targeting assistance from a Russia whose sphere of influence the United States is aggressively invading.

    The Chinese way of war is indirect. In most cases, that means China will engage us with 'soft power,' as she is already doing on multiple fronts. But in the case of American intervention in a Taiwan crisis, what if a Chinese ballistic missile popped a nuke say, 100 miles from an advancing U.S. carrier battle group? No one gets hurt, but the message would be loud and clear: keep coming and you're toast.

    If we kept coming anyway and the Chinese did nuke a carrier, we would immediately face an asymmetrical situation. How would we respond? By nuking a Chinese carrier? China doesn't have any. If we drop a nuke on Chinese territory, we have initiated a strategic nuclear exchange. Is Taiwan worth Seattle or Los Angeles?

    The right answer, as Kaplan recognizes, is don't go to war with China. Perhaps if someone could talk to Karl Rove about the importance of the Chinese vote.

    -People in China have been brainwashed into believing that a full out war with the US could happen at any time. I questioned one of my good friends as to if he believed all of this and he replied, "Of Course!!" the consensus that I have found is that they believe the bombs could start falling at any moment!
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    USA wouldn't go to war with China - too much corporate interest through American companies there. Plus it would be a HUGE war, plus N. Korea, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan are more immediate priorities.
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    (Original post by Geordie_in_HK)
    USA wouldn't go to war with China - too much corporate interest through American companies there. Plus it would be a HUGE war, plus N. Korea, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan are more immediate priorities.
    That's what people said in 1913 (replace US and China with Britain and Germany).
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    Bismark, you really thing that the US will invade China in the next few weeks?!
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    (Original post by Bismarck)
    That's what people said in 1913 (replace US and China with Britain and Germany).
    People say lots of things, what's your point? No way is the USA going to attack China. I would bet my future earnings on it.
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    (Original post by Kondar)
    Bismark, you really thing that the US will invade China in the next few weeks?!
    Firstly, I don't think it will be as simple as America directly attacking China. And no, I don't think it will happen in the near future, though I do think it likely in the long term (say 50 years).

    (Original post by Geordie_in_HK)
    People say lots of things, what's your point? No way is the USA going to attack China. I would bet my future earnings on it.
    Make sure to leave enough for rent.
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    a lot can happen in 50 years. Who says communism won't have come to an end by then?
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    (Original post by Geordie_in_HK)
    a lot can happen in 50 years. Who says communism won't have come to an end by then?
    I will. Communism was destroyed in '91. In China, it was gone even earlier.
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    the chinese version of communism, china certainly isn't capitalist.
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    (Original post by Geordie_in_HK)
    the chinese version of communism, china certainly isn't capitalist.
    You're referring to China's political system, not its economic system. China is not communist; the fact is that individuals are allowed to own the means of production.
 
 
 
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