January invasion

Now it’s January, I guess now we can begin to talk more about the possible invasion of Ukraine. Of course while there’s clear build up of troop movements in the Crimea and along the border, an invasion of Ukraine makes little sense strategically even for Putin. I am by no means a skeptic, but it is clear that the media has hyped it up an awful lot as always and it’s probably just another show of force like Russia commonly do. But of course I’m keeping an eye on it due to the sheer amount of force, which is what makes it different this time round. Security talks are set for the 10th January with more after that so hopefully that could resolve issues because the last set of talks did absolutely nothing.

Anyways, what do people think?

Reply 1

Tempest II

One does have to wonder if the Russians are deliberately building up to then draw down their forces in order to normalise the process in Western eyes. If Putin does this enough times, Western governments will become complacent and therefore opens up the possibility of a surprise attack.
Certainly currently, there would be no strategic or operational surprise available to the Russians; tactical surprise might be be possible. In 2008 (invasion of Georgia) and 2014, Russia has surprise on its side. Now, it cannot hide its troop movements from NATO and, while these movements might not perfectly telegraph Russia's intentions, they can certainly provide Western intelligence agencies with vital data.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/increased-presence-of-british-surveillance-aircraft-near-ukraine/

Russia's actions are somewhat understandable - its Empire, both pre and post the Revolution in 1917, contained Ukraine and the Baltic nations, as well as Finland and much of modern day Poland. While President Putin has no desire to recreate the USSR, he does certainly want to recreate the power and fear it instilled. Having a Ukraine that is an ally of the West and possibly a member of NATO means that his sphere of influence would be very limited.
While we in the West have absolutely no desire to invade Russia, from a Russian perspective, seeing European military powers on their doorstep is untenable. Russia has been invaded by both France and Germany; while neither invasion was successful, millions of Russians were butchered - although at least partly due to their own side's tactics.
While I can understand and even sympathise with this thought process - for example, would the USA allow Mexico to ally itself with the PRC - I also don't believe that Russia should be able to dictate to Ukraine its foreign and domestic policies, nor take its land at will like it did to Crimea in 2014.

Another factor in the equation is President Putin's age. At 69, he is now fairly old, albeit younger than both Presidents Biden and Trump. While Putin is most likely in good physical condition and is possibly one of the richest men in the world, Russian life expectancy for men is only 71. So, his time is most certainly running out to make an impact.
While I'm not convinced that President Putin has a machiavellian plan to destroy NATO, he certainly is excellent at taking opportunities often offered by Western weaknesses. For example, the American pivot to Asia under President Obama certainly helped to create the opportunity for Russia to operate in Ukraine in 2014 with the minimal threat of Western intervention. The attempted assassination of the Skripals in 2018 in Salisbury by a weapon of mass destruction shows that Putin is not afraid to take risks to achieve objectives that we in the West might see as rather pointless.
Personally, my biggest concern is unofficial co-ordination between the Russia and the PRC. Should the PRC make a move on Taiwan as Russia does on Ukraine, the a defacto Third World War could very quickly be on the cards. This situation could very well happen in the next US election cycle, especially if America politics remains as divided and should the next election be as crazy as the last one.

Slightly flippant Bottom Line / TLDR - WW3 in November 2024. You heard it here first!

Reply 2

Napp

Complete load of tosh in ones view, the Kremlin isnt staffed with complete morons, unlike the Pentagon, its a bargainingg chip. Nothing more. And a damn worthy one, its hard for anyone of sound morals to fault a country for being pissed about offensive weapons being aimed at them and this is solely what its about. The west took Ukraine knowing the consequences and now they must deal with it on Russia's terms.. you dont have to like it to note the rationale. If the Russians put weapons in Canada/Mexico the Americans would have invaded, not simply put an army there..

Either way, i doubt Moscow would move west. theres nothing to be gained and everything to be lost. Not even domestic 'rall;y to the flag' would help in this case given the useless money pit that Ukraine is now.

We need a boogeyman and Russia fits the bill given we've, supposedly, defeated the Musselman.. Russians dont want a war any more than anyone in the west, bar the mentally defective on both sides, but still..