2023–24 by-elections thread

I have a feeling that the Conservatives will retain one of these seats, at least. I'd love to be proven wrong but the party has a habit of clinging on to power despite being utterly ****. 😂

More likely that they will lose the three tonight on a sub 50% turnout because Tories will stay home, they will then probably get 2 of the 3 come the general election.

Sigh. I find it difficult to imagine why many people will still vote for them given all that's gone on. A segment of the population are firmly under the grip of Mailygraph mind control.

That said, I feel that it's likely to be a clean sweep against them. Shame we won't hear the results until tomorrow, it would have been nice to go to bed feeling cheerful tonight.

More likely that they will lose the three tonight on a sub 50% turnout because Tories will stay home, they will then probably get 2 of the 3 come the general election.

I'm not so sure. If Labour win Selby then I think the Conservatives will definitely win it back in 2024/25, but Uxbridge already had a small majority and Somerton has historically been a consistent Lib Dem seat (albeit with a small majority).

If Labour win Uxbridge and the Lib Dems win Somerton then I expect they might hold onto the seats at the next election, unless there is a huge shift in public opinion at a national level.

My money would be on one of the three. They're going to get creamed at the general.

It’s true that they are likely to suffer defeat but I’m confident that it won’t be anything approaching current polling.

It's interesting that the former Uxbridge constituency did not go Labour in Blair's '97 landslide, the Tories took it by around 1000 votes - the changes to the new constituency didn't seem to change that, if anything making it more Tory. It would quite an achievement I think for Labour to win it now and then hold it at the next election, but on current polling, it does seem likely they will.

I know things usually narrow towards an election but I really question if that's going to happen to any great extent this time, the Tories appear to have given up everything except culture war nonsense now and there's clearly no hope amongst their ranks of winning. Sunak is just coasting, enjoying his last months at No 10 and hardly bothering.

Selby very impressive for Labour but probably goes back to Tories in the general.

Uxbridge shows that the national labour lead is soft, as it can be beaten by a focussed local campaign.

Somerton and Frome the most significant imo. If the Lib Dems start to be competitive again in their former South west heartlands, the Tories really will be in danger. The sheer size of the Lib Dem majority suggests they have a good chance of keeping it at the general.

Overall, despite the huge poll leads there is very little actual enthusiasm for Labour and certainly none for Keir. The support is soft. All is not lost for the Tories.

On the other hand, without a local issue like the ULEZ how can the Tories retain seats outside of London? London is already a strong Labour area so Labour don't have much to gain there anyway, whereas Selby is located in a region where they need to win seats back.

I'll be surprised if ULEZ lasts the week, thinking about the number of other key marginals are in that outer London doughnut.

I suspect they will go big against Labours 'green agenda' (to the extent it still exists) and try to use it as a wedge issue.

My worry though is that it will mean Labour basically u turn on every green issue and become even more cautious. Throughout the by election there was no attempt by Labour to defend Ulez or make the case for it. They accepted the Tories framing that it was bad from the start.

I'm inclined to agree. The Conservatives have nothing else to turn to aside from culture wars and identity politics, the ULEZ might be the wedge issue they work with.

Will be interesting to see Dorris' by-election and how that goes down.