2023–24 by-elections thread

Labour should have been arguing in favour of the benefits of ULEZ. They should also have been making clear that it won't affect 90% of car users in outer London. Instead they just shuffled their feet and started to backtrack.

It's my fear with the Labour leadership. That they will backpedal as soon as there's any backlash to a progressive policy.

It's also unarguable that Labour's lead in the polls is almost entirely down to the Tories' failures. Labour aren't offering any real optimistic or bold offerings - it's just kind of 'we'll be a bit more competent". The problem is that if the economy improves before the next election, that Labour's lead will start to be gobbled up.

I think that's a concern Labour need to address, but regardless of what they say there will always be people who think that. 'You're no different to the Tories' is something people criticised Labour for in 1997, particularly those on the left. They still won anyway.

Obviously they had more charisma in 1997 than today but it's worth remembering that a lot of people just want the Tories out. You don't get rid of a 35.7% lead by offering nothing, the public still do consider Labour to be an alternative even if they aren't as firm on policy as you or I would like them to be.

Labour should have been arguing in favour of the benefits of ULEZ. They should also have been making clear that it won't affect 90% of car users in outer London. Instead they just shuffled their feet and started to backtrack.

It's my fear with the Labour leadership. That they will backpedal as soon as there's any backlash to a progressive policy.

Tories lost in Selby and Froome but held Uxbridge.

As per my comment above the Lib Dem's polled 21000 and Labour in Selby polled 16000, Labour polled 13000 in Uxbridge.

Some genuine vote transfer in Somerset and Selby then but not greater than the 2019 majority turnout adjusted.

In Uxbridge, both Lab and Con stayed home which suggests the Tories also retain the seat.

Ulez will unfortunately negatively effect quite a few target Labour voters, people on low-to-middle incomes. The key issue is the scrappage scheme, which is simply nowhere near enough and not wide enough. It also hits a large number of small business people. Probably it shouldn't be widened further unless these issues are remedied and there is funding for them.

Khan and Labour are bound to want to review the extension as apart from anything else, the Mayoral election comes up next May and they have a good chance of loosing that as things stand, or at least running it close.

I do wonder though if there wasn't a bit of a legacy thing going on in Uxbridge, a pro-Johnson solidarity vote?

Good to see a young MP winning. Kier Mather, the new MP for Selby and Ainsty, is a 25-yr old Oxford graduate from the local area.

He's younger than a lot of the regulars in these threads.

Ulez is actually pretty popular in London. A recent poll showed 58% of Londoners in favour and 24% opposed. Clearly though the opposition is going to be highly concentrated on outer London.

I kind of respect Khan over this. It's something he believes in and he's been brave in pursuing it in the face of flak from the press, Tory party and increasingly his own party.

Probably.

Turnouts were fairly low:
44.8% in Selby & Ainsty
44.2% in Somerton & Frome
46.2% in Uxbridge & South Ruislip

Sooo close in Uxbridge, also what an incredible level of tactical voting, only 500 LibDems and 800 Greens not switching to Labour, thus tipping it to the Tories. If anything like that level of tactical voting nous carries on into next year, the Tories are utterly stuffed.

Media yesterday saying that Sunak intends to carry on all the way to next November, unsurprisingly. He just wants long in office to sell a memoir and get speaking engagements and maybe one of those lavishly paid jobs in a US bank or hedge fund.

Come now, there is no need to make this personal.

Come now, there is no need to make this personal.

Though why Uxbridge is not especially pro-Labour (with 12000 Tories and 5000 Labour voters likely to vote in the general election you probably expect a Tory victory with a reduced 2019 majority) is perhaps the greater question. I don't know enough about London to know how gentrified or isolated it is.

Good to see a young MP winning. Kier Mather, the new MP for Selby and Ainsty, is a 25-yr old Oxford graduate from the local area.

He's younger than a lot of the regulars in these threads.

First MP younger than me and first to have not been born for the 1997 election

When you zoom in on the constituency it has a fairly large Asian population and I believe I'm right in saying a mainly Hindu Punjabi one - the Hindus of London have moved towards the Tories over the years and particularly in the last decade, partly due to deliberate targeting by the Tories (Zac Goldsmith attacked Muslims in speeches to Hindu gatherings when he was running for Mayor and Johnson played similar games) and this has perhaps paid off.

Does the polling for that break down Con-Lab (perhaps explaining why Tory held seats may be especially hostile).


Uxbridge actually had a greater level of tactical voting in 2019 where Con-Lab took a little over 90% of the vote. While tactical voting probably did occur on the left especially, it looks like Uxbridge was more a result of people just staying home.

Though why Uxbridge is not especially pro-Labour (with 12000 Tories and 5000 Labour voters likely to vote in the general election you probably expect a Tory victory with a reduced 2019 majority) is perhaps the greater question. I don't know enough about London to know how gentrified or isolated it is.

When you zoom in on the constituency it has a fairly large Asian population and I believe I'm right in saying a mainly Hindu Punjabi one - the Hindus of London have moved towards the Tories over the years and particularly in the last decade, partly due to deliberate targeting by the Tories (Zac Goldsmith attacked Muslims in speeches to Hindu gatherings when he was running for Mayor and Johnson played similar games) and this has perhaps paid off.

I think there is mounting evidence that Labour have a particular issue with winning over Hindu voters, yes. See also the below-par performances in Slough and Leicester in the locals, both with other local factors masking the issue but where in Leicester there was election material produced explicitly accusing Labour of being anti-Hindu in the city. It's a phenomenon that predates the Sunak era (see also the Harrow result in LE 2022) but having a practising Hindu leading the Tory Party is surely unlikely to help Labour's plight with Hindu voters.

It's actually threatening to stability in England if the norm becomes Muslim = Labour and Hindu = Tory. To some extent both major parties (and also the LibDems in some places) have encouraged this division. It's a bad thing and a game politicians shouldn't be playing.

Just out of interest I was looking at the other by-elections this parliament given that I currently believe the Tories will win in Selby and Somerset come the general election (bar a horrifically low turnout).

Tories may have a reasonable chance of also keeping Wakefield (lost) and Hartlepool, also North Shropshire (lost).

Tories will not retain Chesham and also Tiverton. They are sadly now in the 'we will solve the housing crisis but house building in this constituency would be bad' Lib Dem camp.