Which 2024 election will be most significant for the world?
In 2024 it is estimated that up to 75% of the population of the democratic world will be going to the polls in a national parliamentary and/or presidential election.
As a result, 2024 has the potential to be a pivotal year for geopolitics.
The US will hold a presidential election in what is highly likely to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. India, the world's largest country by population, will also hold a general election in which Narendra Modi appears the favourite to win re-election. Of course it's also incredibly likely that the UK will hold its general election before the year is out, with the Conservatives looking to be on course to lose.
One of the first elections of 2024 will be in Taiwan on 13th January, with the potential for significant geopolitical consequences depending on who wins. There was also a presidental election due to be held in Ukraine, and it is unclear whether this will be able to take place. Russia will also hold what it will call an 'election' for president.
Elsewhere in Europe there are due to be national elections in Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania and San Marino, as well as elections to the European Parliament.
There are also elections in South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Uruguay and Rwanda, among others.
On such a big year for democracy, which elections are likely to have the biggest global impact?
As a result, 2024 has the potential to be a pivotal year for geopolitics.
The US will hold a presidential election in what is highly likely to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. India, the world's largest country by population, will also hold a general election in which Narendra Modi appears the favourite to win re-election. Of course it's also incredibly likely that the UK will hold its general election before the year is out, with the Conservatives looking to be on course to lose.
One of the first elections of 2024 will be in Taiwan on 13th January, with the potential for significant geopolitical consequences depending on who wins. There was also a presidental election due to be held in Ukraine, and it is unclear whether this will be able to take place. Russia will also hold what it will call an 'election' for president.
Elsewhere in Europe there are due to be national elections in Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania and San Marino, as well as elections to the European Parliament.
There are also elections in South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Uruguay and Rwanda, among others.
On such a big year for democracy, which elections are likely to have the biggest global impact?
Much depends if any of the incumbents lose to generate an impact but I'd say India.
The US election will be incredibly symbolic but actually most economic policy is left to Congress and for all the crying about him from liberals, the Democrats have maintained the bulk of Trump's core foreign policy.
The European election is important in the sense that the strength of the ECR is likely to mean a reduced chance of further treaty reform as the likes of Italy, Hungary and Poland act as a block. The council also has the power over parliament.
Thus I'd say that India has the potential for greatest divergence from the status quo but Modi looks like he will win again.
So in short, the status quo will broadly be approved.
The US election will be incredibly symbolic but actually most economic policy is left to Congress and for all the crying about him from liberals, the Democrats have maintained the bulk of Trump's core foreign policy.
The European election is important in the sense that the strength of the ECR is likely to mean a reduced chance of further treaty reform as the likes of Italy, Hungary and Poland act as a block. The council also has the power over parliament.
Thus I'd say that India has the potential for greatest divergence from the status quo but Modi looks like he will win again.
So in short, the status quo will broadly be approved.
Original post by Saracen's Fez
In 2024 it is estimated that up to 75% of the population of the democratic world will be going to the polls in a national parliamentary and/or presidential election.
As a result, 2024 has the potential to be a pivotal year for geopolitics.
The US will hold a presidential election in what is highly likely to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. India, the world's largest country by population, will also hold a general election in which Narendra Modi appears the favourite to win re-election. Of course it's also incredibly likely that the UK will hold its general election before the year is out, with the Conservatives looking to be on course to lose.
One of the first elections of 2024 will be in Taiwan on 13th January, with the potential for significant geopolitical consequences depending on who wins. There was also a presidental election due to be held in Ukraine, and it is unclear whether this will be able to take place. Russia will also hold what it will call an 'election' for president.
Elsewhere in Europe there are due to be national elections in Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania and San Marino, as well as elections to the European Parliament.
There are also elections in South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Uruguay and Rwanda, among others.
On such a big year for democracy, which elections are likely to have the biggest global impact?
As a result, 2024 has the potential to be a pivotal year for geopolitics.
The US will hold a presidential election in what is highly likely to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. India, the world's largest country by population, will also hold a general election in which Narendra Modi appears the favourite to win re-election. Of course it's also incredibly likely that the UK will hold its general election before the year is out, with the Conservatives looking to be on course to lose.
One of the first elections of 2024 will be in Taiwan on 13th January, with the potential for significant geopolitical consequences depending on who wins. There was also a presidental election due to be held in Ukraine, and it is unclear whether this will be able to take place. Russia will also hold what it will call an 'election' for president.
Elsewhere in Europe there are due to be national elections in Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania and San Marino, as well as elections to the European Parliament.
There are also elections in South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Uruguay and Rwanda, among others.
On such a big year for democracy, which elections are likely to have the biggest global impact?
Personally, I think the US's election will hold a lot of political significance
Original post by Rakas21
The US election will be incredibly symbolic but actually most economic policy is left to Congress and for all the crying about him from liberals, the Democrats have maintained the bulk of Trump's core foreign policy.
Hawkishness towards China is a bipartisan position now, I agree, but I wouldn't say that convergence applied to Russia/Ukraine or NATO necessarily. At least not between Trump and his likely inner circle and Biden/Congressional Democrats.
Probably the USA and UK.
Maybe Ukraine if it goes ahead whilst the Russian military attacks are still ongoing.
Modi is most likely to retain power in India, same applies to Lukashenko in Belarus.
Maybe Ukraine if it goes ahead whilst the Russian military attacks are still ongoing.
Modi is most likely to retain power in India, same applies to Lukashenko in Belarus.
Original post by londonmyst
Probably the USA and UK.
Maybe Ukraine if it goes ahead whilst the Russian military attacks are still ongoing.
Modi is most likely to retain power in India, same applies to Lukashenko in Belarus.
Maybe Ukraine if it goes ahead whilst the Russian military attacks are still ongoing.
Modi is most likely to retain power in India, same applies to Lukashenko in Belarus.
Belarus is not a real democracy.
Original post by Rakas21
Belarus is not a real democracy.
I know.
Europe's least dictatorship and the only European country that still enforces capital punishment for murder, terrorism and military personnel & state officials convicted of high treason.
The American election will have the biggest global impact because America is the world's superpower, and both of the currently likely candidates have different stances on some key areas such as Ukraine. The UK's almost certain election next year won't be significant for a world perspective because both parties have a very similar foreign policy. Taiwan's election might be the next most significant if it changes or alters relations with China (I honestly know nothing of Taiwanese politics).
American election as they are the biggest superpower and supposed 'leader of the free world' and a Trump victory could prove to be detrimental in terms of US home issues as well as in relation to Russia/Ukraine, role of America in NATO etc.
I also think the European Parliament elections could be significant for Europe due to the rise of right-wing parties such as AfD and le Rassemblement National in Germany and France, and figures like Georgia Meloni and continued influence of those like Victor Orban. Increased right-wing presence in the parliament could cause more problems for Ukraine, in terms of support for funding etc
I also think the European Parliament elections could be significant for Europe due to the rise of right-wing parties such as AfD and le Rassemblement National in Germany and France, and figures like Georgia Meloni and continued influence of those like Victor Orban. Increased right-wing presence in the parliament could cause more problems for Ukraine, in terms of support for funding etc
UK based on it being the one I care about the most duh.
But in reality, probably the US election.
But in reality, probably the US election.
(edited 2 months ago)
Original post by Saracen's Fez
In 2024 it is estimated that up to 75% of the population of the democratic world will be going to the polls in a national parliamentary and/or presidential election.
As a result, 2024 has the potential to be a pivotal year for geopolitics.
The US will hold a presidential election in what is highly likely to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. India, the world's largest country by population, will also hold a general election in which Narendra Modi appears the favourite to win re-election. Of course it's also incredibly likely that the UK will hold its general election before the year is out, with the Conservatives looking to be on course to lose.
One of the first elections of 2024 will be in Taiwan on 13th January, with the potential for significant geopolitical consequences depending on who wins. There was also a presidental election due to be held in Ukraine, and it is unclear whether this will be able to take place. Russia will also hold what it will call an 'election' for president.
Elsewhere in Europe there are due to be national elections in Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania and San Marino, as well as elections to the European Parliament.
There are also elections in South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Uruguay and Rwanda, among others.
On such a big year for democracy, which elections are likely to have the biggest global impact?
As a result, 2024 has the potential to be a pivotal year for geopolitics.
The US will hold a presidential election in what is highly likely to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. India, the world's largest country by population, will also hold a general election in which Narendra Modi appears the favourite to win re-election. Of course it's also incredibly likely that the UK will hold its general election before the year is out, with the Conservatives looking to be on course to lose.
One of the first elections of 2024 will be in Taiwan on 13th January, with the potential for significant geopolitical consequences depending on who wins. There was also a presidental election due to be held in Ukraine, and it is unclear whether this will be able to take place. Russia will also hold what it will call an 'election' for president.
Elsewhere in Europe there are due to be national elections in Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania and San Marino, as well as elections to the European Parliament.
There are also elections in South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Uruguay and Rwanda, among others.
On such a big year for democracy, which elections are likely to have the biggest global impact?
Out of all the most significant will be the US general election. Here’s why:
UK General Election. Starmer isn’t much different from Sunak. Starmer isn’t a socialist and both support capitalism. Both are brexiteers and won’t be making any changes to our relationship with Europe.
Russian General Election. It’s a forgone conclusion. Putin will win and Ukraine war will continue.
European Elections. They’re of no importance to Britain as we’re not in Europe.
But the reasons why the US General Election is most significant is if Trump wins all support to the Ukraine could stop. Without American weapons and reliance on the smaller supply from NATO could allow huge Russian victories and possibly force Ukraine to give up most of its east.
Also the wall between Mexico and the US will be completed.
A possible trade deal with Britain and the US, possibly including Britain gaining membership of NAFTA.
Original post by Ambitious1999
European Elections. They’re of no importance to Britain as we’re not in Europe.
Firstly, we are in Europe (it's a continent), just not the European Union.
They can be of importance to the UK, as like it or not we are still affected by EU policy and legislation.
The US election.
The UK general election is a forgone conclusion and it's not like Starmer will change anything significant if he's elected. A Trump presidency would be massively different to a Biden one
The UK general election is a forgone conclusion and it's not like Starmer will change anything significant if he's elected. A Trump presidency would be massively different to a Biden one
Original post by CatusStarbright
Firstly, we are in Europe (it's a continent), just not the European Union.
They can be of importance to the UK, as like it or not we are still affected by EU policy and legislation.
They can be of importance to the UK, as like it or not we are still affected by EU policy and legislation.
Yeah in some cases we will be de facto affected by EU laws anyway despite the disaster known as Brexit.
Take tech laws for example, I doubt that tech companies would be willing to create separate pieces of tech for the UK vs the rest of Europe, probably too much effort. We’ve already seen this in action when it comes to Apple being forced to sell their phones with USB-C as opposed to lightning.
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