what are the chances of rolling 20 6's in a row using a dice?

just had a long ass argument with a housemate stoned off our faces. what are the chances of rolling 20 6's in a row using a dice? i told him i can roll 20 times and get 20 6's on my first attempt, he said it's virtually impossible

none of us had scientific calculators so used google - (1/6)^20 = 2.7351112e^-16

how small is this number? what are we dealing with?

1/billion+ ?

1/trillion+ ?

ty in advance. can't seem to get an exact decimal for this e^-16 **** online

Reply 1

Slowbro93

20

Original post by shartos maximus

just had a long ass argument with a housemate stoned off our faces. what are the chances of rolling 20 6's in a row using a dice? i told him i can roll 20 times and get 20 6's on my first attempt, he said it's virtually impossible

none of us had scientific calculators so used google - (1/6)^20 = 2.7351112e^-16

how small is this number? what are we dealing with?

1/billion+ ?

1/trillion+ ?

ty in advance. can't seem to get an exact decimal for this e^-16 **** online

Put it this way, you have a higher chance of winning the lottery :wink:

Reply 2

shartos maximus

OP

but if i had a dice right now there's nothing stopping me from getting 20 6's in 20 throws, amirite

Reply 3

Mr Porter

12

Original post by shartos maximus

but if i had a dice right now there's nothing stopping me from getting 20 6's in 20 throws, amirite

But there might be a higher chance of you getting a heart attack, thus meaning you couldn't actually roll the dice 20 times because, well, you'd be dead.

Reply 4

Ceryni

18

Original post by shartos maximus

just had a long ass argument with a housemate stoned off our faces. what are the chances of rolling 20 6's in a row using a dice? i told him i can roll 20 times and get 20 6's on my first attempt, he said it's virtually impossible

none of us had scientific calculators so used google - (1/6)^20 = 2.7351112e^-16

how small is this number? what are we dealing with?

1/billion+ ?

1/trillion+ ?

ty in advance. can't seem to get an exact decimal for this e^-16 **** online

2.7351112e^-16 simply means 2.7351112 x 10^-16, which is 1/2.7351112x10^16, or in context, 1 out of (approximately) 27 quadrillion rolls.

So no, you can't roll 20 6s on your first attempt; if you do, buy a lottery ticket ASAP, because you be some kickass lucky mother****er!! :tongue:

Reply 5

shartos maximus

OP

Original post by Mr Porter

But there might be a higher chance of you getting a heart attack, thus meaning you couldn't actually roll the dice 20 times because, well, you'd be dead.

but there's also the chance that i manage to get 20/20 6's mid-heart attack - whether i end up rolling it with my hands or my face

Reply 6

shartos maximus

OP

Original post by Ceryni

2.7351112e^-16 simply means 2.7351112 x 10^-16, which is 1/2.7351112x10^16, or in context, 1 out of (approximately) 27 quadrillion rolls.

So no, you can't roll 20 6s on your first attempt; if you do, buy a lottery ticket ASAP, because you be some kickass lucky mother****er!! :tongue:

1 out of 27 quadrillion rolls =/= 0

i have a chance

next..

Reply 7

517340

16

2.735111228e^-16

This is one in 3.656 QUADRILLION (Million million million million)

The odds of winning the UK national lottery is about 7.15e^-8. About one in 13.984 million.

Reply 8

Saoirse:3

19

Original post by shartos maximus

1 out of 27 quadrillion rolls =/= 0

i have a chance

next..

But for all intents and purposes, including statistics, 1 our of 27 quadrillion would just be rounded off as zero. It isn't impossible, but it's so unlikely it might as well be.

Reply 9

Scorlibran

13

\frac{1}{6}^{20}=2.735\times10^{-16}

\frac{1}{2.735\times10^{-16}}=3.66*10^{15}

Or 1 in 3,660,000,000,000,000.

If you rolled those 20 dice every second, you would expect to get 20 sixes simultaneously once every 116 million years.

You're actually 261 million times more likely to win the UK lottery with one ticket than roll all sixes with 20 dice.

TL;DR you'll not roll 20 sixes in a row

Reply 10

shartos maximus

OP

you're saying it's impossible to get 20 6's in a row; i'm saying i can roll a dice 20 times and get 6 each time

which one of these statements is correct?

Reply 11

Scorlibran

13

Original post by shartos maximus

you're saying it's impossible to get 20 6's in a row; i'm saying i can roll a dice 20 times and get 6 each time

which one of these statements is correct?

The second one. It's a lot more likely if they're loaded dice :tongue:

Reply 12

Saoirse:3

19

Original post by shartos maximus

you're saying it's impossible to get 20 6's in a row; i'm saying i can roll a dice 20 times and get 6 each time

which one of these statements is correct?

Both really. You're saying it could happen, which is true. I'm saying it will never happen, which is also true.

impossibru!

Had a little play around with probabilities, there's more chance of you becoming a pro athlete and then dating a millionaire supermodel and having a genius child and then living to 100. (1.921e^-16)

(As opposed to rolling 20 6s in a row, 2.735e^-16)

Reply 15

Saoirse:3

19

Original post by Ruthless Dutchman

Had a little play around with probabilities, there's more chance of you becoming a pro athlete and then dating a millionaire supermodel and having a genius child and then living to 100. (1.921e^-16)

(As opposed to rolling 20 6s in a row, 2.735e^-16)

That does make the assumption those are independent events when I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be, so in reality what you've said is far, far more likely! :biggrin:

Reply 16

shinwave

5

Didn't you learn the ultimate rule in mathematics - what is it to 3 d.p? 0.0000000000000002735 = 0.00 = 0. Mathematical fact my friend

Reply 17

shartos maximus

OP

Original post by shinwave

Didn't you learn the ultimate rule in mathematics - what is it to 3 d.p? 0.0000000000000002735 = 0.00 = 0. Mathematical fact my friend

go tell that to an engineer designing a bridge

rounding a specific angle or length to 3 d.p. could cause the bridge to collapses onto a random guys face

since when is 0 more accurate than 0.0000000000000002735 anyway? get schooled, next.

Reply 18

shartos maximus

OP

rofl, wrote a program that randomly rolls a dice (generates a number 1-6) e-mails me whenever there's a stream of 20 6's. will legit pay for a server at some point and have the program running forever to prove to u nerds that it's possible

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 19

shartos maximus

OP

Original post by Scorlibran

\frac{1}{6}^{20}=2.735\times10^{-16}

\frac{1}{2.735\times10^{-16}}=3.66*10^{15}

Or 1 in 3,660,000,000,000,000.

If you rolled those 20 dice every second, you would expect to get 20 sixes simultaneously once every 116 million years.

true, but at the same time it's possible that i can get 20 6's simultaneously within 1 second and skip the 116 million year wait

what are the chances of rolling 20 6's in a row using a dice?

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