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Train fares to rise, biggest rise since 2013

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Original post by AlexanderHam
In the last couple of weeks the government decided to terminate the franchise early. Only two years in and they've pretty much gone bankrupt, after 7 years of East Coast Main Line being the best performing railway in the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/29/east-coast-rail-franchise-terminated-three-years-early-virgin-trains

The conclusions could not be clearer; when it was in government hands it was running extremely efficiently. Fares were low, subsidies were low, capital investment was high, profits were returned to Treasury.

Once it went back into private ownership, they screwed it up completely and now the government is revoking the franchise. We bailed out the private sector in 2009 by taking East Coast into government ownership. Spent years fixing up the franchise, making capital investments, running it efficiently. We re-privatise it and now we have to bail them out again.

Is that the same East Coast line? :smile: What exactly are you crowing about?


The system of "privatisation" is one that requires forecasting and is in many cases reliant on National Rail doing what they say when they say, which they have failed to do. Financial accounts are a wonderful thin (I'm sure Jack will say they're all rigged to give false results too) looking at the 2017 accounts we see underlying profitability with the loss being due to two things from an accounting perspective: first is £44.8m exceptional impairment of intangibles which doesn't technically have anything to do with the franchise itself and how profitable or otherwise it is. The other thing it was hit with was a £84.1m onerous contract provision which is again not exactly to do with the franchise itself (although significantly more so than the impairment) and is again not a case of lack of underlying profitability but all down to the way the franchising works, it would not be there if the railways were truly privatised, basically the franchise did not do as well as expected, something that happened across the whole industry not just the East Coast franchise, and the payments made for the franchise are based on forecasts of how well it will do which were overestimated.

Original post by IamJacksContempt
You really are that easily manipulated aren't you?

Not surprising tbh considering your overall political outlook.

Flr example let's just ignore the fact that they're only measuring journey times at terminus. Therefore a train running over 5 minutes late simply skips a couple of stations (stranding passengers on the platform who wanted to board as well as trapping passengers who want to disembark).

But according to your statistics the train would have ran perfectly on time. Doesn't exactly represent the overall passenger journey does it?

5 minutes itself is a pretty large margine for being late as well. You with Japan or Switzerland would have such wide margins?

Also, most of the figures the rail companies are an aggregated across the day and the week and so don’t take into account the number of people using a train. Therefore trains carrying hundreds of people can be late regularly, but trains on the same route that run late at night or at the weekend and carry only a handful of passengers can arrive on time, essentially masking the total failure of other services.


But hurrr I'm Jammy Duel, look at the BIG numbers those train people are saying, must mean it's good, they'd have no reason to manipulate them whatsoever :rolleyes:


Do you even regularly commute by train?


Again, might want to check which stats you're looking at, you are accusing national statistics of being falsified.
Original post by FriendlyPenguin
Are you being facetious? All that can be said for air flight too - aircraft are very expensive to maintain with strict safety standards, and airport security is far far more expensive than train guards. Plus you don't need someone to sell you a ticket, there are machines for that.



Air traffic controllers need to be very well trained. Adding more air traffic controllers to a single airport would make things more dangerous, not less, since they would be conflicting with each other.

You require two very well trained pilots to continually guide the plane to Greece; trains don't really need drivers these days, certainly not as well trained as pilots.


In the year to 31/03/17 Ryanair's cost per passenger was 42.62 Euros and fares only make up 73% of of their revenues, ancillary revenues make up over a quarter that is stuff like credit card charges, baggage fees, and the 5 euros you paid for a 10p bottle of water. They use 737-800s which can legally carry up to 189 passengers so sure, the average flight costs £7k but that's split between 189, and ancillary charges mean you can sell the ticket itself below cost and still have a 22% pre tax profit margin (20% post tax)





https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Ryanair-FY2017-Annual-Report.pdf

We can compare this to the railways, looking at Go-Ahead (who own the Southeastern, London Midland, and Southern franchises) who have about half the revenue but are the biggest players in the rail game by market share. 20% of their rail revenue goes into rolling stock lease, a third of their group revenue goes into staffing costs, sadly their investment portion just gets clumped into the £647m "other operating costs" chunk.

Also while planes are expensive so are trains. The new Hitachi Class 800s have a £5.7bn lifetime cost for 122 trains which works out at £46.7m each. Compare this to those 737-800s that Ryanair were using at it's not that much less. The headline cost for a 737-800 $98m (gone up actually) or £73.18m so 56% more than the train and that does not include lifetime costs, that $98m is before discounts though which this blog from 2009 suggests could knock as much as a third off the price, and Ryanair probably get a pretty good price because they exclusively use 737-800s and have over 300 of them with another 183 on order as well as an option for 100 of a newer model of the plane. Each of those planes will carry about 1000 passengers a day though.

https://www.ryanair.com/gb/en/useful-info/about-ryanair/fleet

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