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Jeremy Hunt to deliver budget on March 6 as election looms

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-hunt-deliver-budget-march-6-election-looms-2023-12-27/

Reuters is saying that it’s likely to be the government's last major chance to prepare the ground for an election that must be held by January 2025.
Reply 1
Throwing a few morsels our way won’t make a jot of difference at this point. The fact the Conservative Party and their supporters have impoverished Britain is now too entrenched in the minds of the British public. That is why we haven’t seen any significant shifts in the polls over the last year.

Just get it over with. Hold an election and get this rotting carcass of a government out of power.
I reckon the budget will have lots of traps for the next Labour government, such as tax cuts funded from borrowing so that Labour must either increase borrowing or cancel them. And if the budget is being delivered on March, the election could be called for May, so that the potential "feel good" factor is still high, and before the focus moves towards how they will be paid for.
Reply 3
Original post by Smack
I reckon the budget will have lots of traps for the next Labour government, such as tax cuts funded from borrowing so that Labour must either increase borrowing or cancel them. And if the budget is being delivered on March, the election could be called for May, so that the potential "feel good" factor is still high, and before the focus moves towards how they will be paid for.


Hunt has been doing this already with his faux-austerity. Keep borrowing high for now with commitments to cut spending for 2025 knowing full well it will be Labour who has to sort out the mess.
(edited 4 months ago)
I think we are heading for a may election. What do you think he will bribe the public withi?
Original post by Kutie Karen
I think we are heading for a may election. What do you think he will bribe the public withi?

It will be November. The conservatives will be decimated anyway, I hope they disband forever. However, AFD in Germany are a million times worse from what I have just read on the BBC.
Reply 6
Original post by random_matt
It will be November. The conservatives will be decimated anyway, I hope they disband forever. However, AFD in Germany are a million times worse from what I have just read on the BBC.

The party needs to regain its Reform voters, it will move to the social right if it enters opposition.

Who wins essentially comes down the scale of the loss because of how the Tory MP makeup is however the key thing to note is that the New Conservative caucus will likely increase it's share of the parliamentary party simply thanks to replacing retired folk even if loses net numbers.

Basically, if the party is trounced and goes below 200 MP's then the party is probably split in favour of Cameroon's and ERG types rather than the Borisites. This favours a battle between Braverman, Cleverly and Mordant as the hard right and left of the party go against each other.

The more interesting scenario is the moderate loss scenario where the Tories retain say 250 MP's (I.e. losses are limited to about 100 MP's). This basically favours the New Conservative types even if the Red Wall goes because the new MP's replacing retirees will probably be nationalists who are not economically pure. This favours Kemi heavily because she's between the two camps but more right but also has the greatest potential to spring a suprise such as Miriam Cates.
(edited 3 months ago)
Original post by Gazpacho.
Hunt has been doing this already with his faux-austerity. Keep borrowing high for now with commitments to cut spending for 2025 knowing full well it will be Labour who has to sort out the mess.

Exactly this - cut tax in March, paid for by forecast assumptions that the gov will impose very very sharp (and unrealistic) real terms cuts on departmental and public investment spending after the next election. What a wonderful way to design your fiscal policy.... shows the fiscal rules are working wonders....
Reply 8
Original post by Smack
I reckon the budget will have lots of traps for the next Labour government, such as tax cuts funded from borrowing so that Labour must either increase borrowing or cancel them. And if the budget is being delivered on March, the election could be called for May, so that the potential "feel good" factor is still high, and before the focus moves towards how they will be paid for.
Would there really be much feelgood factor from one pay packet with £30 more in it for a £50k earner?

Surely the idea is waiting on rate cuts to kick in.
Reply 9
Original post by Quady
Would there really be much feelgood factor from one pay packet with £30 more in it for a £50k earner?

Surely the idea is waiting on rate cuts to kick in.

It's optics.

Since people won't vote on second order issues like PISA rankings and they failed on immigration and have not done much on health, they essentially want to try argue a 2015 style 'we took hard choices but here's the light at the end of the tunnel'.

After trying the whole change thing for a brief period, they've finally settled on 'better the devil you know'.

Personally I think the Autumn statement was the mistake (though I actually prefer Nov/Dec budgets) and that they should have waited and then with the larger headroom just halve the spare cash between NI cuts and fuel duty.

I actually think his pro motorist line had potential. He won't get votes from middle class eco warriors anyway but working class drivers 'white van man' are the types he needs to hold from 2019.
Reply 10
Original post by Rakas21
It's optics.

Since people won't vote on second order issues like PISA rankings and they failed on immigration and have not done much on health, they essentially want to try argue a 2015 style 'we took hard choices but here's the light at the end of the tunnel'.

After trying the whole change thing for a brief period, they've finally settled on 'better the devil you know'.

Personally I think the Autumn statement was the mistake (though I actually prefer Nov/Dec budgets) and that they should have waited and then with the larger headroom just halve the spare cash between NI cuts and fuel duty.

I actually think his pro motorist line had potential. He won't get votes from middle class eco warriors anyway but working class drivers 'white van man' are the types he needs to hold from 2019.

I just think anyone is noticing 'the optics'

He did a 2% NI cut and nobody noticed. I got the maximum benefit possible from that, it was a rounding error on my income.
Original post by Quady
I just think anyone is noticing 'the optics'

He did a 2% NI cut and nobody noticed. I got the maximum benefit possible from that, it was a rounding error on my income.

That's why it's solely optics. You'll barely feel it but at least a 3% reduction will look okay and fit a message on TV and posters.

Moreover, current polling tables suggest that the number of Tories going for Labour is reducing but they are bleeding Reform votes (now 26-28% of 2019 Tories) and they are likely more sympathetic to the message.

It won't be enough of course but they are out of time and out of options.
(edited 1 month ago)
Original post by Rakas21
That's why it's solely optics. You'll barely feel it but at least a 3% reduction will look okay and fit a message on TV and posters.

Moreover, current polling tables suggest that the number of Tories going for Labour is reducing but they are bleeding Reform votes (now 26-28% of 2019 Tories) and they are likely more sympathetic to the message.

It won't be enough of course but they are out of time and out of options.

If they’d focused on good governance rather than optics over the last 14 years, the Conservatives wouldn’t have dug such a massive hole for themselves and Britain.

It is an obvious statement but one the Conservative Party and their supporters keep failing to grasp.

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