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Original post by MatureStudent36
What does the normal climate look like?

After all, it's continually changed.


Normal climate looks like stable levels of CO2 and a change in climate based solely on orbital forcing and its related biogeochemical feedbacks.
Original post by St. Brynjar
Normal climate looks like stable levels of CO2 and a change in climate based solely on orbital forcing and its related biogeochemical feedbacks.


Yet we've had constant variations in atmospheric CO2 since the dawn of time.

So what's stable CO2 levels?
Original post by St. Brynjar
+1. Couldn't have put it better myself.

There's a great debate in academic circles as to whether or not we live in a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene as opposed to the Holocene, citing that human influences have changed the planet over the last 100 years as much as other sources (orbital geometry, extraterrestrial inputs etc.) do in thousands of years, in terms of climate, biodiversity and resource extraction. The recognition of the Anthropocene should go some way to silencing climate deniers.


This was actually the precise topic of my EPQ! I'll be surprised if the ICS doesn't formalise the Anthropocene (despite the fact that they're infamously traditionalist), I think the difficult question is deciding when it started.

Original post by MatureStudent36
Yet we've had constant variations in atmospheric CO2 since the dawn of time.

So what's stable CO2 levels?


There's a slight difference between carbon dioxide periodically oscillating between 200-300ppmv over a 40,000-100,000 year cycle and a change in over 100ppmv in just over a century when the concentration should be stable or decreasing.
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by Chlorophile
This was actually the precise topic of my EPQ! I'll be surprised if the ICS doesn't formalise the Anthropocene (despite the fact that they're infamously traditionalist), I think the difficult question is deciding when it started.



There's a slight difference between carbon dioxide periodically oscillating between 200-300ppmv over a 40,000-100,000 year cycle and a change in over 100ppmv in just over a century when the concentration should be stable or decreasing.


Alas, we've seen co2 concentration much higher than that in the past.

My issue with a lot of this is that we're using complex computer models on unknowns and say 'look, the computer says this. It must be true.'

What about polar shift? I've seen one paper say that it is a contributing factor towards climate change and another saying that it's happening because of climate change. ( WO be tide any scientist who puts his head above the parapet on that one.)

Anybody who has claimed the sun has had an effect on climate change has been denounced as a heratic.
Original post by MatureStudent36
Alas, we've seen co2 concentration much higher than that in the past.

My issue with a lot of this is that we're using complex computer models on unknowns and say 'look, the computer says this. It must be true.'

What about polar shift? I've seen one paper say that it is a contributing factor towards climate change and another saying that it's happening because of climate change. ( WO be tide any scientist who puts his head above the parapet on that one.)

Anybody who has claimed the sun has had an effect on climate change has been denounced as a heratic.


Yes, CO2 levels have been higher than they are now. When the planet was 3 degrees warmer and the sea level about 30m higher.
And no, we're not just using computer models. Computer models are important for projections but you have to understand, people don't just come up with these models and then use the values. Before a model can be used, you test it against the past. We understand relatively decently how the climate has changed over relatively recent geological history. We input known values from a given time period, plug them in to the model and see if it managed to end up with the modern climate. If it does, it's probably a good model and we can use it. If it doesn't, we don't use it. These models are stringently tested, they're not just used with no factual background.

You're going to have to elaborate what you mean by polar shift.

Anyone who has claimed the sun has an effect on climate change will not be denounced as a heretic. Anyone who claims that the sun has a significant effect on the climate change we are seeing at the moment will be denounced as an idiot because the changes in solar intensity are orders of magnitude too small to explain the changes seen today. If anything, the solar intensity has been decreasing as the earth has been warming. The sun isn't causing the warming we're seeing at the moment. That doesn't mean the sun can't cause climate change because it can, but it's not responsible for the currently observed effects.
Original post by Chlorophile
Yes, CO2 levels have been higher than they are now. When the planet was 3 degrees warmer and the sea level about 30m higher.
And no, we're not just using computer models. Computer models are important for projections but you have to understand, people don't just come up with these models and then use the values. Before a model can be used, you test it against the past. We understand relatively decently how the climate has changed over relatively recent geological history. We input known values from a given time period, plug them in to the model and see if it managed to end up with the modern climate. If it does, it's probably a good model and we can use it. If it doesn't, we don't use it. These models are stringently tested, they're not just used with no factual background.

You're going to have to elaborate what you mean by polar shift.

Anyone who has claimed the sun has an effect on climate change will not be denounced as a heretic. Anyone who claims that the sun has a significant effect on the climate change we are seeing at the moment will be denounced as an idiot because the changes in solar intensity are orders of magnitude too small to explain the changes seen today. If anything, the solar intensity has been decreasing as the earth has been warming. The sun isn't causing the warming we're seeing at the moment. That doesn't mean the sun can't cause climate change because it can, but it's not responsible for the currently observed effects.


Those models have been run, yet have often failed to predict future events. Hence the reason why the IPC continually time their reports down.

Polar shift, geomagnetic reversal is when the north pole flips over on its axis.

http://www.physics.org/facts/frog-magnetic-field.asp

http://www.brockpress.com/2014/10/scientists-warn-that-our-poles-may-switch-sooner-than-expected/

A perfectly natural phenomena.

But don't worry. The environmental lobby have now jumped in this and aimed its man made through image change.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24755-earths-poles-are-shifting-because-of-climate-change.html#.VHUixokgHCQ

So we have scientists talking about the sun going through a manic period with high amounts of solar activity. Environmentalists saying it hasn't, yet the sun is so quiet that the Met office has decided to actually study the impact of solar activity.

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/oct/03/met-office-space-weather-forecast

This of course is already being done by a British scientist called Piers Corbyn. But he's been poo poo'd because he claims that the sun is driving climate change.
Original post by MatureStudent36
Yet we've had constant variations in atmospheric CO2 since the dawn of time.

So what's stable CO2 levels?


Stable as in explained totally by natural feedback mechanisms - getting locked up in plants, released in eruptions etc.
Original post by St. Brynjar
Stable as in explained totally by natural feedback mechanisms - getting locked up in plants, released in eruptions etc.


Stable as in can't be defined as stable. It's forever going up and down. It's been higher with more plants on the planet.

And let's not forget plants like CO2.
Original post by MatureStudent36
Stable as in can't be defined as stable. It's forever going up and down. It's been higher with more plants on the planet.

And let's not forget plants like CO2.


That has literally nothing to do with my point. CO2 right now is not in keeping with natural forcing, we're adding ridiculous quantities to the atmosphere (whilst destroying the plants you mention which like CO2).
Original post by St. Brynjar
That has literally nothing to do with my point. CO2 right now is not in keeping with natural forcing, we're adding ridiculous quantities to the atmosphere (whilst destroying the plants you mention which like CO2).

We're not. Developing nations are.

The developed world has been unite constant in it's output.
Original post by MatureStudent36
We're not. Developing nations are.

The developed world has been unite constant in it's output.


You're seriously suggesting we're not polluting well beyond our means? And that developing countries who produce all of our stuff are to blame?
Original post by St. Brynjar
You're seriously suggesting we're not polluting well beyond our means? And that developing countries who produce all of our stuff are to blame?


Not at all. I'm all for cutting down on pollution.

But naturally occurring CO2 a pollutant?

If the increase in co2 is man made, and that's a big if as there's still debate going in whether or not co2 leads it lags temperature change, that's a whole 2 ppm of a naturally occurring gas we've increased.

Why don't you get so upset about methane gas increases?
More Potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2 by a factor of 29.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane

As with CO2, those limits we're seeing now have been seen before.
Reply 92
'Global warming' is a government conspiracy. If you look into it closely there is zero evidence for such a phenomena.
Original post by MatureStudent36
Stable as in can't be defined as stable. It's forever going up and down. It's been higher with more plants on the planet.

And let's not forget plants like CO2.


Plants also like water, does that make floods a good thing? :rolleyes:
Original post by The Socktor
Plants also like water, does that make floods a good thing? :rolleyes:


If they're geared up for wet conditions they are. But the medieval warm period was a positive event from that perspective.
Original post by MatureStudent36
If they're geared up for wet conditions they are. But the medieval warm period was a positive event from that perspective.


Original post by MatureStudent36
Those models have been run, yet have often failed to predict future events. Hence the reason why the IPC continually time their reports down.

Polar shift, geomagnetic reversal is when the north pole flips over on its axis.

http://www.physics.org/facts/frog-magnetic-field.asp

http://www.brockpress.com/2014/10/scientists-warn-that-our-poles-may-switch-sooner-than-expected/

A perfectly natural phenomena.

But don't worry. The environmental lobby have now jumped in this and aimed its man made through image change.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24755-earths-poles-are-shifting-because-of-climate-change.html#.VHUixokgHCQ

So we have scientists talking about the sun going through a manic period with high amounts of solar activity. Environmentalists saying it hasn't, yet the sun is so quiet that the Met office has decided to actually study the impact of solar activity.

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/oct/03/met-office-space-weather-forecast

This of course is already being done by a British scientist called Piers Corbyn. But he's been poo poo'd because he claims that the sun is driving climate change.


Okay, first of all those articles are talking about completely different things. You're mixing up the geographic north pole and the magnetic north pole. Changing the mass distribution of the earth changes the position of the geographic north pole (the subject of the NewScientist article), the dynamics of the outer core affect the location of the magnetic north pole (the subject of the first two articles). One has no effect on the other.

Your second point is also a complete mix up. The Guardian article (about the Met office) is talking about high energy solar flare and solar wind events. These are very important for things like satellites and the operation of systems that use the Earth's magnetic field but this has nothing to do with solar radiation intensity, or the intensity of radiation from the sun reaching the earth. This article is talking about ultra high energy events, the kind that get blocked by the Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere so have no impact on the climate. You might have got the hint from the fact that the word "climate" isn't mentioned once in the article.
Original post by RFowler
Possibly one of the stupidest conspiracy theories in the history of conspiracy theories.

Climate change is backed by overwhelming scientific evidence. Imagine what would need to be involved in any scam - there is no way in hell that thousands of scientists from many different countries from many different countries and many different research institutions publishing thousands upon thousands of studies would be able to organise any sort of "scam". It would simply be impossible. It would be impossible to even organise it simply within 1 country, let alone the whole world.

Anyone who believes the conspiracy theory that climate change is a scam organised by the left wing hive mind, feminists, the BBC and probably the honey monster are on the same level intellectually as those who deny evolution.


You're using the word scientist way too liberally, if a whole generation of climatologists educates another generation of climatologists and no one challeneges the foundations critically, usually because they get called a 'denialist' as though it were some sort of cult, despite the fact climate change theories seem to make few, if any accurate predictions and are based on data only collected in recent times, then yes it is possible.
Original post by Gwilym101
Can guarantee it is not a scam. This video summarises it nicely.

[video="youtube;cjuGCJJUGsg"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjuGCJJUGsg[/video]

obnoxious incompetent who laughs at his own jokes that amusingly would not even appeal to the scientifically literate because he has no idea what a fact is, science is not dogma, encouraging people not to critically evaluate the foundations of their discipline is precisely why religion was dominate for so long.
Original post by DErasmus
You're using the word scientist way too liberally, if a whole generation of climatologists educates another generation of climatologists and no one challeneges the foundations critically, usually because they get called a 'denialist' as though it were some sort of cult, despite the fact climate change theories seem to make few, if any accurate predictions and are based on data only collected in recent times, then yes it is possible.


Who says no one challenges those things critically? You're going to need evidence for that.

You're also going to need to be specific with the "few if any accurate predictions" things. The general trends have actually been predicted fairly accurately - as accurate as you'd expect for what is basically trying to predict the future.

"Denialist" accurately describes a lot (perhaps a majority) of climate change deniers. Genuine skeptics question everything but accept proof if they see it. Deniers, on the other hand, completely refuse to accept anything they disagree with (regardless of how valid it is) while accepting without question anything which supports their view.

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