US Presidential Election 2016 official thread

Scroll to see replies

In terms of Michigan, is there a 20% threshold?

538 has Trump with an easy win but the other 3 are within a few percent of each other around the 20% mark.

538 also gives Kasich a 44% chance of taking Ohio while suggesting that Rubio will fail in Florida.

Michigan has a 15% threshold, then proportional.

Trump should get it, along with Mississippi. Cruz may win the caucus in Hawaii, perhaps Idaho too.

Reply 1781

Josb

Sanders wins Maine with 64% of the vote.

Reply 1782

Yellow 03

I bet he will win most of the caucuses, including Washington.

Reply 1783

troubadour.

Original post by Josb

Sanders wins Maine with 64% of the vote.

That's good news, but it's hardly surprising. New England is Sanders-friendly territory.

Reply 1784

Josb

Original post by Hydeman

That's good news, but it's hardly surprising. New England is Sanders-friendly territory.

Clinton won Massachusetts though.

Reply 1785

troubadour.

Original post by Josb

Clinton won Massachusetts though.

By less than 2 points. She only got one more (non-super) delegate than Sanders there.

Reply 1786

cBay

Democratic Debate is interesting in that the candidates themselves are basically choosing the topics by linking one subject to another. The moderator is asking the occasional question but only on what they themselves have chosen to speak about. Sanders slightly on the front foot but not by much.

Reply 1787

Josb

Original post by Yellow 03

I bet he will win most of the caucuses, including Washington.

Mmh Washington has a large black community.

Reply 1788

Yellow 03

Original post by Josb

Mmh Washington has a large black community.

It does, but percentage-wise they are still less than 5%, so I'm not sure this will be enough to give Hillary a victory...

Reply 1789

The_Opinion

Original post by Mentally

I think he was referring to the point of Trump planning to outlaw all Muslim immigration

In the US, the vast majority of people don't really care about the whole temporary Muslim ban policy. In the US the Mexico wall / 15 million Latino illegals is by far the bigger issue. I don't know why so many people in the UK (I'm not necessarily referring to you by the way) are so obsessed with the temporary Muslim ban.

Reply 1790

Josb

Original post by Yellow 03

It does, but percentage-wise they are still less than 5%, so I'm not sure this will be enough to give Hillary a victory...

You mean 50%? Like the other main northeastern cities, Washington has a very important black minority - if not majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Washington,_D.C.

Reply 1791

cBay

Original post by Josb

You mean 50%? Like the other main northeastern cities, Washington has a very important black minority - if not majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Washington,_D.C.

'Washington' generally refers to the state

Reply 1792

Yellow 03

Original post by Josb

You mean 50%? Like the other main northeastern cities, Washington has a very important black minority - if not majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Washington,_D.C.

We are talking about Washington State, not Washington D.C. though? :smile:

Reply 1793

Yellow 03

Original post by cBay

'Washington' generally refers to the state

Yes. In this case, the caucus particularly refers to Washington State. Washington D.C. is in the other end of the country.

Reply 1794

Josb

Original post by Yellow 03

We are talking about Washington State, not Washington D.C. though? :smile:

lol I just got it. :getmecoat:

As the Republican caucus was scheduled there next week, I thought you were speaking of DC. I just checked and the Democrats haven't scheduled a primary in DC.

Reply 1795

Yellow 03

Original post by Josb

lol I just got it. :getmecoat:

As the Republican caucus was scheduled there next week, I thought you were speaking of DC. I just checked and the Democrats haven't scheduled a primary in DC.

Sorry for confusion! :h:

Reply 1796

username883747

Apologies if this has already been asked (If so please point me to the correct post.) but what exactly is Clintons appeal to African-American voters?

Reply 1797

Jammy Duel

Original post by Ibn Fulaan

Apologies if this has already been asked (If so please point me to the correct post.) but what exactly is Clintons appeal to African-American voters?

Bottom of page 87 and top of 88 it was discussed briefly, she does well with blacks because they're a little thick on the matter and actually believe Obama helped them, and she said she would be like him for them

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 1798

troubadour.

Original post by Ibn Fulaan

Apologies if this has already been asked (If so please point me to the correct post.) but what exactly is Clintons appeal to African-American voters?

She's Bill Clinton's wife, and he's seen as having done a lot for African-Americans. She's also portraying her potential presidency as a continuation of the Obama administration and Obama is popular with African-American voters.

Reply 1799

username883747

Thanks. Would the GOP establishment really prefer Trump over Cruz when push comes to shove? I imagine the reasoning if that was true would be something like "Cruz is a genuine nutter but Trump only pretends to be a genuine nutter".

Who are the majority on mainstream African American figures supporting? Rev. Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton etc.