The Next Superpower

as someone else has said, fuel will be an important issue. China and several EU countries (mainly Germany, Spain, Denmark) are investing heavily in new energy sources, including ambitious solar projects in less-populated desert countries such as Algeria and Morocco. Sure, it might be more expensive and less-convenient than a petroleum based economy- but the less a country/federation is dependent on imported fuel and food, potential resource conflicts become less of a problem. I think that will be the mark of a 'superpower' in the coming decades.

Reply 101

Richiboi

11

I forgot to include Norway and Brazil (at the expense of a crap-ton of virgin wilderness admittedly) have massive reliance on HEP, and so should be included.

Reply 102

Richiboi

11

Original post by de_monies

I thought that the Arab states would be big economies in the 21st century, but it seems that Egypt is the only Arab country thought to become any sort of major power

Seems that Asia is set to rise, with the Arab counties either largely staying the same or declining if they don't sort out their economies after their major export depletes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Eleven

a lot on that list are down to large populations (i.e. cheap labour and large markets in the minds of an investor.) There are big problems in places like Nigeria and Egypt with overcrowding, and water supplies will be a problem if birth rates dont slow down.

Reply 103

JonathanNorth

7

Original post by vedderfan94

China. An economy that could soon overtake the US economy and the largest armed forces in the world.

The US economy is worth 15tn while China's economy is worth close to 7tn. [Source]

While they have been playing catch-up with the West, I don't see how China's growth is sustainable. You just have to look at all the developments in China, they come up empty in a lot of cases. The bubble will burst with China, when is the question.

The US is already growing again, and doing considerably better than Europe. From what I've read the US is in a position where it can actually recover, where Europe is in a far more dire position.

Reply 104

Sir Fox

18

I'd say none - at least not to the extent we use to attribute to the word 'superpower' (like the US currently, the British Empire in the past etc.)

1. Is China a superpower yet?

No. Being a superpower includes the ability to project (military) power globally. China's air force and navy just aren't capable to manage that - the Chinese don't even have an aircraft carrier yet (under construction) and as long as they don't have a relevant fleet of those (at least 3 or 4 modern ones) they cannot fulfill this criterion.

Currently the US are capable of fighting and winning two wars at any place of the earth (except Afghanistan, maybe :biggrin:

) - just imagine China trying to fight only one war in Latin America.

2. Will China become a superpower?

I doubt it. China still has to go to enormous lengths to modernise large parts of the country (hundreds of millions of Chinese still live under third world conditions) which will become even more difficult when the one-child-policy starts to backfire on them. Suddenly the gonverment will have to deal with hundreds of millions of old people who require food, care etc.

China will become stronger and will finally be a big global player (think they already are), but a superpower? Rather not ...

In my opinion the US will rightfully claim the title of the globe's only superpower for decades.

My candidates for 'great powers' (the group of most powerful countries right behind the US):

China
India - will take some time, am not sure about that
A potential United States of Europe - yeah, believe it or not, the current form of the world was shaped within only one century, things can change that fast again :colone:

Yet, I'd like to point out that all these predictions are highly speculative. There are developments and twists no one can predict. China's growth, for example, is currently predominantly based on a cheap work force - as living standards are rising more and more European and American companies have started to move their production to less expensive places like Vietnam etc. If China doesn't manage to shift the main growth from its industry to the tertiary sector, they might get a serious problem.

India is facing extreme challenges as well - just some weeks ago half of its population (more than 500 million people, if I recall it right) was without electricity for some time. The caste system is another major hindrance which the society has to get rid off as soon as possible.

As Richiboi has pointed out resources will be a vital factor as well - those countries who manage to live without (or with very little) oil will have it much easier than those who still need enormous amounts - I really don't see countries like India, Russia or Brazil getting anywhere with renewable energies at the moment.

(edited 11 years ago)

Tuvalu.

Original post by Newbie123

Tuvalu.

If they manage to stop and reverse the climate change within a few decades to not be forced to lead a submarine life, maybe :biggrin:

Reply 107

Sir Fox

18

Original post by JonathanNorth

The US is already growing again, and doing considerably better than Europe. From what I've read the US is in a position where it can actually recover, where Europe is in a far more dire position.

Hardly - the US flood the market with fresh money and don't care a bit about their national debt. This way America won't retain its AAA ranking very long :wink:

If Romney wins the elections and starts to raise the military's budget ... :rolleyes:

Reply 108

JonathanNorth

7

Original post by Sir Fox

Hardly - the US flood the market with fresh money and don't care a bit about their national debt. This way America won't retain its AAA ranking very long :wink:

If Romney wins the elections and starts to raise the military's budget ... :rolleyes:

As long as it can keep growing, then I don't think its' national debt is an issue. Countries were building up these national debts in the good times when they were growing, it can occur again without any downgrades.

Frankly, countries need to grow and cutting won't make jobs or growth. - As we can see in the latest example, right here in the UK.

Brazil

Original post by Sir Fox

Hardly - the US flood the market with fresh money and don't care a bit about their national debt. This way America won't retain its AAA ranking very long :wink:

If Romney wins the elections and starts to raise the military's budget ... :rolleyes:

We can sort of surmise that AAA ratings are kind of a joke, France has been down graded, ok fair enough, Spain, Italy and Portugal, yup no problem, can readily see why, but the UK, which has been continually been in recession for the better part of 2 years with no signs of coming out of it, is not... why, what is keeping its rating afloat, while the BoE prints and churns out new pound notes at an exorbitant rate (as you accused the US of doing) as a stop gap measure... Any other country would have dropped by now... Your thoughts?

Reply 111

Kallisto

Entertainment Forum Helper

22

If there will be a new superpower one day, I guess it will be China, but people don't know what will happen in the future. So, I will wait and see what will happen with the world.

Reply 112

...mo...

14

Oil is power therefore Saudi

Reply 113

pol pot noodles

19

Original post by benjafinn

I think the US will stay dominant simply because it exports its culture worldwide.

We exported our culture worldwide, didn't help us much.

Reply 114

Try Rekorderlig

8

India is getting richer, it's Middle Class: growing. Culturally it has expanded throughout most of the West. It's population is sufficient enough to have a global influence, and the resources at it's disposal are huge. Thinking in terms of a cultural impact, Bollywood is getting more recognition now. I noted that they had 4 competitors at the Para Games, with a population around 1,000,000,000 that's obviously very low, but funding is what makes athletes and with India's new found capital they will have a larger impact on the sporting world, if of course you believe that is a feature of a superpower, much like Russia + USA's competition at the heights of the cold war.

Reply 115

Sir Fox

18

Original post by Try Rekorderlig

India is getting richer, it's Middle Class: growing. Culturally it has expanded throughout most of the West. It's population is sufficient enough to have a global influence, and the resources at it's disposal are huge. Thinking in terms of a cultural impact, Bollywood is getting more recognition now. I noted that they had 4 competitors at the Para Games, with a population around 1,000,000,000 that's obviously very low, but funding is what makes athletes and with India's new found capital they will have a larger impact on the sporting world, if of course you believe that is a feature of a superpower, much like Russia + USA's competition at the heights of the cold war.

In my opinion India is facing giant challenges in the future which will prevent it from becoming a superpower in the near or middle future. Just some months ago half of the country (>500 million people) had no electricity for several days, the caste system is a major hindrance for social mobility, the country is overcrowded ...

Reply 116

Try Rekorderlig

8

Original post by Sir Fox

In my opinion India is facing giant challenges in the future which will prevent it from becoming a superpower in the near or middle future. Just some months ago half of the country (>500 million people) had no electricity for several days, the caste system is a major hindrance for social mobility, the country is overcrowded ...

I considered this, and youre very right but what I think will help the Indians in future is their pride in their nation and their overall uniformity, In Sociology I learned that 95% of the population are Hindu and an overwhelming majority saw India as 'the greatest nation' http://newhumanist.org.uk/1731/rush-hour-of-the-gods This was realised by an Indian researcher, Meera Nanda. who else could contend? China maybe, but emigration is seriously undermining the nation's integrity. But that might just be what they need, less people. Very good point about India being overcrowded, I cannot foresee a way around that problem, India also has disease epidemic's that China has not. Maybe your'e right, India hasn't got it in her to be a superpower

Reply 117

Kallisto

Entertainment Forum Helper

22

Original post by ...mo...

Oil is power therefore Saudi

That is an interesting aspect which you named. But I think it would be deciding which come at the top in economics. And from this perspective China has the best chances.

Reply 118

Phantom Lord

13

Original post by Aj12

I highly doubt Russia. There economy is an oil price drop away from complete collapse. Year on year it requires something like a 10 dollar oil price increase just to stay afloat.