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1.
I agree it's difficult to forecast. The drop in the number of private school pupils might not be particularly high, but it also might be far higher than we expect. I don't think we've had an equivalent situation take place before that we can compare it to (given that a sudden increase is different from a gradual one). So if nothing else I'd say we're risking a shock to the state sector even if not necessarily causing one.
2.
I don't really understand your point here. I'm not saying that this policy will cause a squeeze on house prices. I'm saying the private pupils who enter the state system will probably be entering the best and most competitive schools to get into rather than the worst ones (because they can afford the higher prices in those areas, can afford 11+ tuition etc.) So the issue I'm raising is more about displacing pupils who could have otherwise gone to better schools and now have to go to less good ones.
3.
The point about scholarships and bursaries isn't intended to be the most significant point here. It accounts for a minority of people attending private schools. However it's still better than nothing, and my point is that without any tax incentive even this will stop.
4.
I would expect private school class sizes to drop because there are fewer pupils, but not necessarily less funding per pupil (because the people who remain in private schools are those who can afford higher fees and maintain the same funding per pupil). I wasn't aware however, that the numbers of state school pupils are significantly dropping at the moment. Why would that be?
1.
Fewer people will be able to afford to go to private school. They will need to go to state schools instead, which will increase the burden on those schools (many of which are already overpopulated). At present, private school parents help the state sector by paying tax towards it but not using it, but this would reduce.
2.
The students who would otherwise be going to private school are likely to be ahead of the competition in terms access to the best state schools (e.g. they can typically afford to buy houses in more expensive areas, tuition for 11+ exams etc.) which will make it more difficult for other students to access the best state schools.
3.
Private schools will no longer provide as many scholarships and bursaries to those who otherwise couldn't afford to go, nor will they do as much to help their local student communities. It will become less affordable to them, and they won't even need to in order to maintain their charitable status (as they no longer get a VAT exemption for it).
4.
Private school class sizes will reduce, whilst state school class sizes will increase, affecting the quality of teaching at both and increasing the gap between the two.
1.
Fewer people will be able to afford to go to private school. They will need to go to state schools instead, which will increase the burden on those schools (many of which are already overpopulated). At present, private school parents help the state sector by paying tax towards it but not using it, but this would reduce.
2.
The students who would otherwise be going to private school are likely to be ahead of the competition in terms access to the best state schools (e.g. they can typically afford to buy houses in more expensive areas, tuition for 11+ exams etc.) which will make it more difficult for other students to access the best state schools.
3.
Private schools will no longer provide as many scholarships and bursaries to those who otherwise couldn't afford to go, nor will they do as much to help their local student communities. It will become less affordable to them, and they won't even need to in order to maintain their charitable status (as they no longer get a VAT exemption for it).
4.
Private school class sizes will reduce, whilst state school class sizes will increase, affecting the quality of teaching at both and increasing the gap between the two.
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