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Donald Trump will win the US Presidential Election.

In a little over two months, Americans will go to the polls to elect the next President of the United States. The two candidates: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, have both been regarded as two of the most unpopular candidates in the US's electoral history, however only one of the two will secure enough votes to make it to the White House and become the next Commander and Chief.

From the onset of this year's presidential race, Donald Trump has been marked as the rank outsider by many political pundits given his short appeal to many of America's key demographics in many of America's key electoral states. Since the beginning of March - according to average poll estimates aggregated by Real Clear Politics - Donald Trump was polling at 38 percent as oppose to Hillary who had a 12 point lead: polling at upwards of 50 percent in some polls at the time. However, remarkable changes in Donald Trump's temperament, his willingness to engage with minority communities, Hillary's health woes, her negative attack-campaign, persistent Islamic-inspired terror and people's dismissal of mainstream bias has allowed Donald Trump - as of this month - to rid Hillary's lead of more 12 points in March, down to less than 1 point according to the latest aggregate poll data.

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

The US, however, does not elect its presidents in accordance to popular vote. A notable example of this being in 2000, where although Al Gore - the Democratic nominee for President - was beaten by George Bush - the Republican nominee for President - even though Al Gore received more of the popular vote from the electorate.

Each year, presidential nominees battle it out in so-called purple states - states which switch to either red (Republican) or blue (Democrat) in each election - in order to gain enough electoral college votes to reach the 270 point minimum.

First let's consider the states which definitely* vote for Hillary Clinton:

Hillary Clinton (definite*)

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Total (definite*) Democratic votes: 171

And now let's consider the states which will definitely* vote for Donald Trump:

Donald Trump (definite*)

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Total (Definite*) Republican votes: 106

*states which show either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton leading by more than 10 percentage points or an assumed victory given past voting trends for states where data is not provided.

Now let's consider the states which will likely** vote for Hillary Clinton:

Hillary Clinton (likely**)

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Total (likely**) Democratic votes: 52

And now let's consider the states which will likely** vote for Donald Trump:

Donald Trump (likely**)

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Total (likely**) Republican votes: 55

**states which show either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton leading by more than 5 but less than 10 percentage points.

Now let's consider the final states***:

Maine

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Maine, 4 points. [Hillary Clinton +3]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Maine

Arizona

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Arizona, 11 points. [Donald Trump +2]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Arizona

Michigan

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Michigan, 16 points. [Hillary Clinton +3]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Michigan

Rhode Island

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Rhode Island, 4 points. [Hillary Clinton +3]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Rhode_Island

Georgia

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Georgia, 16 points. [Donald Trump +3]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Georgia

Virginia

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Virginia, 13 points. [Hillary Clinton +3]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Virginia

Nevada

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Nevada, 6 points. [Donald Trump +3]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Nevada

New Hampshire

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New Hampshire, 4 points. [Hillary Clinton +2]

http://www.270towin.com/states/New_Hampshire

Florida

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Florida, 29 points. [Donald Trump +3]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida

North Carolina

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North Carolina, 15 points. [Donald Trump +/-0]

http://www.270towin.com/states/North_Carolina

Colorado

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Colorado, 9 points. [Donald Trump +4]

http://www.270towin.com/states/Colorado

(forgot to write about Ohio, however it will turn red in November. Poll data has been very favourable towards Trump in recent weeks and the demographics also favour the Trump campaign as well. Trump's lead in the state is a notable 5 points.)

http://www.270towin.com/states/Ohio

***states which show either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton leading by less than 5 points.

My final election map for the 2016 US Presidential Election is:

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Oklahoma

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

(edited 7 years ago)

RIP world

Nice analysis, although your conclusion does worry me! If the polls are to be believed (sometimes they are accurate, sometimes not), then this will turn out to be much closer than everyone first thought. I think it will largely depend on the events running up to polling day, such as any additional Islamic terrorist attacks, or any insults thrown either way by Trump or Hillary that happen to offend a decently-sized demographic (such as Trump about the Muslim soldier, or Hillary about 'deplorables').

Reply 3

Unown Uzer

16

Make America Great Again!

Reply 4

ckfeister

19

I predicted brexit will happen, it did. Same for Trump, he has the silent but powerful force behind him.

Reply 5

username1177050

20

Yep I agree. I stated in one of the threads regarding brexit it back in June that there was an undercurrent of real anger in the provinces and that people in the metropolitan areas were seriously underestimating this anger.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 6

username1022139

OP

20

Original post by JRKinder

Nice analysis, although your conclusion does worry me! If the polls are to be believed (sometimes they are accurate, sometimes not), then this will turn out to be much closer than everyone first thought. I think it will largely depend on the events running up to polling day, such as any additional Islamic terrorist attacks, or any insults thrown either way by Trump or Hillary that happen to offend a decently-sized demographic (such as Trump about the Muslim soldier, or Hillary about 'deplorables' :wink:

.

There will be a lot of factors which could change the overall swing of either campaign, but if anything, the Trump campaign has been receiving more support in recent weeks and the Clinton campaign has been becoming more unpopular. The most important aspect of the entire election will be the debates. If Trump can perform well in the three debates - and Hillary has one of her episodes - then Donald Trump will be the next president.

Reply 7

Dodgypirate

6

I wonder whether if the final result is so close in favour of Trump that the Democrats will ask for a second election? :colone:

Reply 8

Orbital_Rising

1

Well when the world goes to 5hit at least I will be in the privileged position to inform the mouth breathing troglodytes who voted for Trump, "I told you so."

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 9

MathMoFarah

2

Original post by Dodgypirate

I wonder whether if the final result is so close in favour of Trump that the Democrats will ask for a second election? :colone:

Only 9% of possible voters made Hillary and Trump the candidates.

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(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 10

999tigger

19

well you have a 50/50 chance. Am sure an octopus somewhere must be making the prediction as well. If you are wrong then this will get buried anyway.

Reply 11

Crijjkal

3

Maine district number 2 is Trump .. Also PA is going Trump

http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/northampton/

I personally think NH will go Trump, could be wrong about that.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 12

nutz99

19

Original post by Orbital_Rising

Well when the world goes to 5hit at least I will be in the privileged position to inform the mouth breathing troglodytes who voted for Trump, "I told you so."

Strangely enough that's what a lot of people were saying about the EU vote and literally predicted the end of the world if Brexit happened.

Trump getting voted in will be a breath of fresh air.

I don't like politicians and I don't trust politicians. They just feel that they have a right to lie to the public whenever it suits them. I would trust Trump before any politician.

Reply 13

MathMoFarah

2

Original post by nutz99

Strangely enough that's what a lot of people were saying about the EU vote and literally predicted the end of the world if Brexit happened.

Trump getting voted in will be a breath of fresh air.

I don't like politicians and I don't trust politicians. They just feel that they have a right to lie to the public whenever it suits them. I would trust Trump before any politician.

Sure... because a known conman who promises to tear up the paris climate agreement and geneva convention, ban a 1.2bn member religious group from his country, freeze ALL new regulations in the US, deregulate wall street (that thing that almost destroyed the global economy in 2008), build a giant wall he can't afford (by making Mexico pay for it) and vastly reduce taxes on the richest, while raising them on the poorest, is about on par for bad as Brexit and won't end up hurting anyone.

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(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 14

nutz99

19

Original post by MathMoFarah

Sure... because a known conman who promises to tear up the paris climate agreement and geneva convention, ban a 1.2bn member religious group from his country, freeze ALL new regulations in the US, deregulate wall street (that thing that almost destroyed the global economy in 2008), build a giant wall he can't afford (by making Mexico pay for it) and vastly reduce taxes on the richest, while raising them on the poorest, is about on par for bad as Brexit and won't end up hurting anyone.

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The taxes I can agree on but a lot of the other policies will be endorsed by a lot of the US population because it will only benefit the US. I don't believe he would deregulate wall street as he would lose too many influential friends.

Still a lot better than that lying toad Clinton.