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Probability help.

3 Safes. Each has 2 Drawers. One safe has 2 Drawers alarmed another has 1 draw alarmed and the other has no draws alarmed. In a bank. Burglar comes.

i)P(Alarm goes off) = 0.5

ii)P(Other draw is alarmed | Not alarm gone off so far)

Not sure how I do part ii).

I would have thought it would be something like 0.5 since the only options are Draw is alarmed or isn't.

Thank you.
(edited 12 years ago)
Reply 1
I think that you need to tell us what the question is
Original post by TenOfThem
I think that you need to tell us what the question is


That is the question.

In a bank there are 3 safes each with 2 drawers. The first safe has 2 drawers alarmed, the 2nd has 1 drawer alarmed and the 3rd has none. A burglar comes:

i)Prob. burglar sets off alarm.
ii)Given that the alarm didn't go off, what is the prob. the other drawer is alarmed.
Draw a probability tree, it will probably help. :dontknow:
Original post by Math-Illiterate
That is the question.

In a bank there are 3 safes each with 2 drawers. The first safe has 2 drawers alarmed, the 2nd has 1 drawer alarmed and the 3rd has none. A burglar comes:

i)Prob. burglar sets off alarm.
ii)Given that the alarm didn't go off, what is the prob. the other drawer is alarmed.


Is this in the same safe, or in any safe? If it's in any safe, then just look at how many unopened drawers there are, and how many are alarmed and how many aren't.
Original post by Amwazicles
Is this in the same safe, or in any safe? If it's in any safe, then just look at how many unopened drawers there are, and how many are alarmed and how many aren't.


The other would suggest the same safe.
Reply 6
Original post by Math-Illiterate
The other would suggest the same safe.


tbh that was the bit I was unsure of but, if the question does not say that he opens 2 of the same safe then there is a lack of clarity

does it even say that he opens 2 drawers?
Original post by TenOfThem
tbh that was the bit I was unsure of but, if the question does not say that he opens 2 of the same safe then there is a lack of clarity

does it even say that he opens 2 drawers?


He opens a draw. What is the other draw, alarmed or not. That is what it means. So it's just asking given that the first draw has no alarm, what is the probability that the other draw is alarmed.
(edited 12 years ago)
Original post by Math-Illiterate
The other would suggest the same safe.


Then in that case it would be 0.5 I guess. He can't have opened the safe with two alarmed drawers. If he opened the safe with one alarmed drawer, and opened the non-alarmed drawer, the other one would be alarmed. If he opened the safe with no alarmed drawers, the other one wouldn't be alarmed. So there are only two possible outcomes, of equal likelihood.

The question sounds extremely unclear. Either you're not posting the entire question, or it's a very poorly written one. Is it from a textbook, or a past exam paper or what?
Original post by Amwazicles
Then in that case it would be 0.5 I guess. He can't have opened the safe with two alarmed drawers. If he opened the safe with one alarmed drawer, and opened the non-alarmed drawer, the other one would be alarmed. If he opened the safe with no alarmed drawers, the other one wouldn't be alarmed. So there are only two possible outcomes, of equal likelihood.

The question sounds extremely unclear. Either you're not posting the entire question, or it's a very poorly written one. Is it from a textbook, or a past exam paper or what?


The question is fine.
Original post by Math-Illiterate
The question is fine.


Given that you found it confusing and we all consider it to be poorly written, surely it is not fine
Original post by Math-Illiterate
The question is fine.


That's not an answer. :erm: Have you posted the entire question, letter for letter? If not, then you can't really expect us to help very easily. :dontknow:
Original post by TenOfThem
Given that you found it confusing and we all consider it to be poorly written, surely it is not fine


I haven't found the question confusing. I just don't know how to get the answer.
But, if it simply means that he opens an unalarmed drawer, what is the probability that the other drawer in that safe is alarmed then, as has been said, the answer is just 0.5
(edited 12 years ago)
Original post by TenOfThem
But if it simply means that he opens an unalarmed drawer, what is the probability that the other drawer in that safe is unalarmed then, as has been said, the answer is just 0.5


Is alarmed and okay. Thought it might be, but it's just not a very nice answer so I didn't think it would be right.

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