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Statistics Problem.

Greetings, I was solving a probability exercise from a Stats pastpaper and I got stuck in 1 mark question.

Erika is a birdwatcher. The probability that she will see a woodpecker on any given day is 1/8. It is assumed that this probability is unaffected by whether she has seen a woodpecker on any other day.

i) Calculate the probability that Erika first sees a woodpecker

(a) on the third day [3] - I got 49/512 which is right

(b) after the third day [3] I got 343/512 which is right

ii) Find the expectation of the number of days up to and including the first day on which she sees woodpecker [1]

I don't know how to calculate E(X) without knowing how many times she will go. Or maybe they're asking for something else?
Reply 1
Original post by Blackfyre
Greetings, I was solving a probability exercise from a Stats pastpaper and I got stuck in 1 mark question.

Erika is a birdwatcher. The probability that she will see a woodpecker on any given day is 1/8. It is assumed that this probability is unaffected by whether she has seen a woodpecker on any other day.

i) Calculate the probability that Erika first sees a woodpecker

(a) on the third day [3] - I got 49/512 which is right

(b) after the third day [3] I got 343/512 which is right

ii) Find the expectation of the number of days up to and including the first day on which she sees woodpecker [1]

I don't know how to calculate E(X) without knowing how many times she will go. Or maybe they're asking for something else?


How did you work out a and b ?
Reply 2
Original post by zed963
How did you work out a and b ?


I used tree diagram for both.

a) 7/8*7/8*1/8
b) (7/8)^3
Reply 3
Bump, still need help.
Original post by Blackfyre
Bump, still need help.


E(X)=x=1(x×P(X=x))\displaystyle E(X) =\sum_{x=1}^{\infty}\left(x \times P(X=x)\right)


x=1(x×18×(78)x1)\displaystyle\sum_{x=1}^{\infty}\left(x \times\frac{1}{8}\times\left( \frac{7}{8} \right)^{x-1} \right)



PS: You should recognise the distribution, in which case you may be able to just quote the result, rather than use first principles.
(edited 10 years ago)

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