Year 12s: what will be the first way you research your future options? >>

Geopolitical forecasting.

How can you forecast and understand international events?

look at a countries history and their relationships with other countries. Also, situations in countries around them could be an indicator.

Reply 2

Josb

Original post by william walker

How can you forecast and understand international events?

I predict a new war in the Middle East. :biggrin:

Reply 3

william walker

Original post by Josb

I predict a new war in the Middle East. :biggrin:

Why? What thought process do you use to predict it? Who will it be between and for what reasons?

Reply 4

Josb

Original post by william walker

Why? What thought process do you use to predict it? Who will it be between and for what reasons?

Can't you figure that by yourself? :biggrin:

Reply 5

william walker

Original post by chantalc

look at a countries history and their relationships with other countries. Also, situations in countries around them could be an indicator.

What about a nations geography, demographics and economy? History is important. Relations with other nations and how they could change in time?

Reply 6

chantalc

Original post by william walker

What about a nations geography, demographics and economy? History is important. Relations with other nations and how they could change in time?

yeah, I didn't think of that. I forgot that the geography of a country affect it too :s

Reply 7

william walker

Original post by chantalc

yeah, I didn't think of that. I forgot that the geography of a country affect it too :s

So say a country like Bangladesh how would you think it would be in 20 years time based upon its history, geographic, economic and demographic trends? Then from this forecast how do you think its relations will change with the nations around it? This is what I think about.

Reply 8

Josb

Original post by william walker

So say a country like Bangladesh how would you think it would be in 20 years time based upon its history, geographic, economic and demographic trends?

Under the sea.

Reply 9

earthworm

Original post by Josb

Under the sea.

Darling its better down where its wetter take it from me

Reply 10

william walker

Original post by Josb

Under the sea.

The global warming forecasts aren't very reliable. Since the date inputs into the models could be wrong and nobody really knows how the earth will react. Whether it is the inside of a bowl which will correct itself or the outside of one in which case it will cause major problems. Also I expect there to be new energy technology to generate solar energy in space. Also improve battery technology to store the energy. This removed the problem of human caused global warming.

Read a book called "The Next 100 Year" by George Friedman.

Reply 11

Josb

Original post by william walker

I don't think Bangladesh can afford any of that.

Reply 12

william walker

Original post by Josb

I don't think Bangladesh can afford any of that.

I next Bangladesh within 20 years to have slowing population grow, for its current young population to be reaching the peak of their consumption and be starting to save capital. By this time Bangladesh will be a second world industrial economy. So it will be able to afford the cost of importing energy. However this energy will be natural gas, not solar energy. As I don't expect the solar energy to come online until 2040 at the earliest and even then only the Americans and their top allies will get access to it.

Reply 13

Rakas21

Original post by william walker

How can you forecast and understand international events?

A combination of the nations currents politics, it's self interest, it's threats, it's culture, it's economy and it's demographic trends.

Reply 14

sashalalsall

There has actually been research going on for over 30 years of methods to quantify geopolitical forecasting. There was a competition funded by IARPA (American intelligence agency) to find ways of accurately forecasting geopol- and a guy called Phil Fetlock and others found that by collectivising the wisdom of the crowd on a prediction market platform they were able to get like 80% more accurate forecasts than that of any expert lol. Since then there has been a small surge in start-up companies doing the same thing. One really cool one is almanis.com which aims to forecast geopolitics, industry, economics, social, environmental, medical, etc events. They also have a pretty sick prize pool so I'd recommend checking it out :smile: