Will there be a general election before Christmas?
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Original post by Numero Uno
yeh perhaps but with corbyn is even less likely than miliband
bear in mind if this does happen, Corbyn will likely have the labour party looking a tad bit stronger than the conservative party who are divided and threw out their leader while most oppose their new one. If only corbyn had a mind like Blair and knew how to exploit the weak and divided conservative party but instead his opposition weakness is allowing a weak government to govern Britain with a challenge
If BoJo was PM 
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Original post by zayn008
bear in mind if this does happen, Corbyn will likely have the labour party looking a tad bit stronger than the conservative party who are divided and threw out their leader while most oppose their new one. If only corbyn had a mind like Blair and knew how to exploit the weak and divided conservative party but instead his opposition weakness is allowing a weak government to govern Britain with a challenge
yeh fair enough
Original post by Hevachan
If we stay, is there any chance at all of a new election? Or is it just if we leave?
Well if we stay then the government's campaign will have succeeded and if it is by a considerable margin, it will probably vanquish the dissenters in the Tory party.
Interesting. I mean, if anything, Cameron made a mistake when he admitted that he would only be PM for 2 terms- then you have the Blair/ Brown debacle where MPs started flocking to Brown and obeying his every word in hopes of advancement. You basically lose all your power because continuing to fall in line ceases to be useful. I suspect he'll be stabbed in the back/ stand aside after some back room posturing. A vote of no confidence is possible, but unlikely I would have thought.
Original post by jamestg
I'm sorry but you're wrong.
In my eyes, a PM who resigns because they cannot take the public's opinion is more undemocratic than someone who stays on and accepts the public's (and his own) opinion.
Referendums are also not votes of confidence, this has nothing to do with Cameron whatsoever. Yeah there will be some divisions within the party - but the whole idea of a referendum is to settle a debate. I also doubt many will resign and branch off with UKIP - seeing as quite a few Tories see UKIP as toxic. Cameron's majority will not be lost, thus a VONC will fail.
In my eyes, a PM who resigns because they cannot take the public's opinion is more undemocratic than someone who stays on and accepts the public's (and his own) opinion.
Referendums are also not votes of confidence, this has nothing to do with Cameron whatsoever. Yeah there will be some divisions within the party - but the whole idea of a referendum is to settle a debate. I also doubt many will resign and branch off with UKIP - seeing as quite a few Tories see UKIP as toxic. Cameron's majority will not be lost, thus a VONC will fail.
I do agree that referendums are not a vote of no confidence, and am not suggesting that David Cameron should be forced to step down. I do believe, however, that a General Election should be called should he decide to do so. (The Conservatives would most likely win anyway, since Jeremy Corbyn is unelectable in many people's opinions).
Original post by Quantex
The guy holds no political office. I don't think handing the reigns of power to an unemployed man will go down well with the electorate.
If you knew much you would know that he is the Member of Parliamentfor Uxbridge and South Ruislip, as well as being in the employ of newspapers.
I think we should all have a consensus that the next PM should be
Jacob Rees-Mogg
With a front bench of BoJo, Gove-babe, Phillip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt (so we can blame all our problems on him), Sajid Javid (Blind corbyn with the shininess of his head), Chris Grayling (To help Sajid), John Whittingdale (To bring some chicks to the commons), Bill Cash (legend), Dennis Skinner (Lift him up from his seat and glue him across the floor on the government front bench, so he can taunt Black Rod for our amusement).
Apologies for excluding any women... Theresa May has just put me off all women in parliament, apart from Michael Fabricant, who's a Boris Doppleganger...
I rest my case.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
With a front bench of BoJo, Gove-babe, Phillip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt (so we can blame all our problems on him), Sajid Javid (Blind corbyn with the shininess of his head), Chris Grayling (To help Sajid), John Whittingdale (To bring some chicks to the commons), Bill Cash (legend), Dennis Skinner (Lift him up from his seat and glue him across the floor on the government front bench, so he can taunt Black Rod for our amusement).
Apologies for excluding any women... Theresa May has just put me off all women in parliament, apart from Michael Fabricant, who's a Boris Doppleganger...
I rest my case.
(edited 7 years ago)
The chances of a general election happening, to say the least David Cameron resigning because we left the EU, is extremely unlikely. David Cameron has said he will continue being PM if we leave.
The only positive I can draw from this potential situation(being a Labour supporter but begrudgingly so these days) would be Labour getting wiped out again now instead of in 2020 and Corbyn being forced to resign 4 years early.
It's unlikely to happen though regardless.
It's unlikely to happen though regardless.
(edited 7 years ago)
I reckon they will keep Cameron on as PM for a few months maybe even until 2020 or they could call in a general election in 2018 or so, because they need someone to do all the negotiations and stuff for exiting the EU as we need someone with quite a bit of experience to take us through those challenging times.
If Cameron does step down (or gets pressured to), I think it would be quite hard to predict the next leader. They would probably want an out campaigner but none of them are good contenders. I doubt Boris will get the leadership because MP's don't see him as a serious person and he isn't very popular among MPs. Gove although he is more serious and perhaps more experienced, isn't very popular especially after what he did with the education system. Priti Patel isn't well known, I for one didn't know who she was before the EU referendum and she doesn't seem to experienced or indeed capable to be PM. And Ian Duncan Smith isn't the sort of man to be PM (I cant see him as being a good PM, he seems to weak) but I would say he is the favorite.
If however they wait it out until 2020 or maybe call in a general election early or even if Cameron resigns after doing all the negotiations, I think Osborne is the favorite to succeed him, maybe even Theresa May or Phillip Hammond because quite a few of the Tory MPs dislike Osborne for cutting a lot of their budgets.
In terms of the Labour party, I reckon they would get hammered if there was an election straight after the referendum. In 2018, they might do alright, perhaps lose a few more seats. In 2020, however, I think they would do average, they wont get a majority, but neither will the Tories and there might be another coalition with the Lib Dems or even UKIP (especially if we vote Leave).
However it is very early days to be predicting the results of the 2020 election, there is so much that could go wrong.
AND ALSO VOTE REMAIN.
I'm only 16 so I cant vote
If Cameron does step down (or gets pressured to), I think it would be quite hard to predict the next leader. They would probably want an out campaigner but none of them are good contenders. I doubt Boris will get the leadership because MP's don't see him as a serious person and he isn't very popular among MPs. Gove although he is more serious and perhaps more experienced, isn't very popular especially after what he did with the education system. Priti Patel isn't well known, I for one didn't know who she was before the EU referendum and she doesn't seem to experienced or indeed capable to be PM. And Ian Duncan Smith isn't the sort of man to be PM (I cant see him as being a good PM, he seems to weak) but I would say he is the favorite.
If however they wait it out until 2020 or maybe call in a general election early or even if Cameron resigns after doing all the negotiations, I think Osborne is the favorite to succeed him, maybe even Theresa May or Phillip Hammond because quite a few of the Tory MPs dislike Osborne for cutting a lot of their budgets.
In terms of the Labour party, I reckon they would get hammered if there was an election straight after the referendum. In 2018, they might do alright, perhaps lose a few more seats. In 2020, however, I think they would do average, they wont get a majority, but neither will the Tories and there might be another coalition with the Lib Dems or even UKIP (especially if we vote Leave).
However it is very early days to be predicting the results of the 2020 election, there is so much that could go wrong.
AND ALSO VOTE REMAIN.
I'm only 16 so I cant vote
Original post by JamesN88
The only positive I can draw from this potential situation(being a Labour supporter but begrudgingly so these days) would be Labour getting wiped out again now instead of in 2020 and Corbyn being forced to resign 4 years early.
It's unlikely to happen though regardless.
It's unlikely to happen though regardless.
If only Ed didn't beat David in that last round... we would've had a strong labour government today. oh well, there's always 2020-2025 to look forward to
Original post by zayn008
If only Ed didn't beat David in that last round... we would've had a strong labour government today. oh well, there's always 2020-2025 to look forward to
The problem is that Corbyn ain't winning in 2020 so we're likely stuck with the Tories for another 9 years, unless they're polling badly in 2018-19 and he gets forced out before the election and they appoint an electable leader instead.
Can a PM call a general election now that we have a fixed term parliament system?
There are events that can trigger one but given the Conservative majority I suspect the party would have to be very fractured for their MPs not to fudge a solution, fighting a general election when the party is infighting is not good news re keeping one's job, and MPs have a remarkable ability to think of their own interests above everything else.
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 provides for general elections to be held on the first Thursday in May every five years.
However, there are two provisions that trigger an election other than at five year intervals:
a motion of no confidence is passed in Her Majesty's Government by a simple majority and 14 days elapses without the House passing a confidence motion in any new Government formed
a motion for a general election is agreed by two thirds of the total number of seats in the Commons including vacant seats (currently 434 out of 650)
Previous to this Act, the Prime Minister could call a general election at any time within the five year period and not all Parliaments lasted the full five years.
Before 2011 a general election could be called earlier for a number of reasons. For example, the Prime Minister could decide to call an election at a time when he or she was most confident of winning the election (getting more MPs than any other party) or if a government was defeated on a confidence motion, a general election could follow.
In the scenario of leadership change self preservation will likely drive the Conservatives to formulate around someone and it may not be Bojo:- he could be a deal breaker for some in the party. There is a sort of Conservative tradition that he who wields the knife does not pick up the crown, disloyalty to party is a bit of a mortal sin.
I would ask myself who is big enough (re standing/ has enough support and is not hated by the other party factions) and might get their fellow MPs to tolerate them (the unity candidate); there is the great episode in Yes Prime Minister where Jim Hacker is the least obnoxious candidate and of course who can forget The Thick of It specials when the PM unexpectedly resigns.
Theresa May is a possible (notice her near silence re the referendum) but I have no idea how popular she is in the Westminster tearooms/bars.
Classic example was John Major.(albeit their old system), he was really not who anyone thought would succeed Thatcher, Heseltine wielded the knife, Major scooped the crown.
Re the Conservatives the process is now , I believe, as follows:
The Tories’ process for picking a leader is twofold: Conservative MPs narrow the field to two choices, before a postal ballot of the wider membership of the party is conducted.
The Chairman of the 1922 Committee, which represents Conservative MPs, acts as the returning officer for leadership elections. Graham Brady is currently serving in this post. The Conservative Whip (currently Michael Gove) receives nominations from members of the House of Commons, and the deadline is noon “on a Thursday”.
If one nomination is received, the new leader is declared elected. If two nominations are made, both names go forward for the members of the party to decide between. In the event that three or more MPs are nominated for leader, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held “on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations”. The ballot is held under the first past the post system. If MPs are choosing between four or more candidates, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and further ballots are held on subsequent Thursdays and Tuesdays until only two MPs remain.
The wider membership of the Conservative party then chooses between these two MPs, with the vote being held via a postal ballot. The returning officer chooses the date by which ballots have to be returned and the count begins at noon that day. The result is announced at a meeting of the parliamentary party and “representative members”.
http://www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk/2015/03/follow-the-leader-rules-for-party-leadership-elections/
There are events that can trigger one but given the Conservative majority I suspect the party would have to be very fractured for their MPs not to fudge a solution, fighting a general election when the party is infighting is not good news re keeping one's job, and MPs have a remarkable ability to think of their own interests above everything else.
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 provides for general elections to be held on the first Thursday in May every five years.
However, there are two provisions that trigger an election other than at five year intervals:
a motion of no confidence is passed in Her Majesty's Government by a simple majority and 14 days elapses without the House passing a confidence motion in any new Government formed
a motion for a general election is agreed by two thirds of the total number of seats in the Commons including vacant seats (currently 434 out of 650)
Previous to this Act, the Prime Minister could call a general election at any time within the five year period and not all Parliaments lasted the full five years.
Before 2011 a general election could be called earlier for a number of reasons. For example, the Prime Minister could decide to call an election at a time when he or she was most confident of winning the election (getting more MPs than any other party) or if a government was defeated on a confidence motion, a general election could follow.
In the scenario of leadership change self preservation will likely drive the Conservatives to formulate around someone and it may not be Bojo:- he could be a deal breaker for some in the party. There is a sort of Conservative tradition that he who wields the knife does not pick up the crown, disloyalty to party is a bit of a mortal sin.
I would ask myself who is big enough (re standing/ has enough support and is not hated by the other party factions) and might get their fellow MPs to tolerate them (the unity candidate); there is the great episode in Yes Prime Minister where Jim Hacker is the least obnoxious candidate and of course who can forget The Thick of It specials when the PM unexpectedly resigns.
Theresa May is a possible (notice her near silence re the referendum) but I have no idea how popular she is in the Westminster tearooms/bars.
Classic example was John Major.(albeit their old system), he was really not who anyone thought would succeed Thatcher, Heseltine wielded the knife, Major scooped the crown.
Re the Conservatives the process is now , I believe, as follows:
The Tories’ process for picking a leader is twofold: Conservative MPs narrow the field to two choices, before a postal ballot of the wider membership of the party is conducted.
The Chairman of the 1922 Committee, which represents Conservative MPs, acts as the returning officer for leadership elections. Graham Brady is currently serving in this post. The Conservative Whip (currently Michael Gove) receives nominations from members of the House of Commons, and the deadline is noon “on a Thursday”.
If one nomination is received, the new leader is declared elected. If two nominations are made, both names go forward for the members of the party to decide between. In the event that three or more MPs are nominated for leader, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held “on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations”. The ballot is held under the first past the post system. If MPs are choosing between four or more candidates, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and further ballots are held on subsequent Thursdays and Tuesdays until only two MPs remain.
The wider membership of the Conservative party then chooses between these two MPs, with the vote being held via a postal ballot. The returning officer chooses the date by which ballots have to be returned and the count begins at noon that day. The result is announced at a meeting of the parliamentary party and “representative members”.
http://www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk/2015/03/follow-the-leader-rules-for-party-leadership-elections/
Original post by JamesN88
The problem is that Corbyn ain't winning in 2020 so we're likely stuck with the Tories for another 9 years, unless they're polling badly in 2018-19 and he gets forced out before the election and they appoint an electable leader instead.
Do you really think MPs will let him run for the general election with their £70k excluding bonuses office at stake? I highly doubt it
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