Trump has won presidental election - he has the secert army
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Original post by ckfeister
Can't remember, just looked on polls and did.
Whats that meat to mean? theres seems to be no logic at all in what you did other than you wanted to produce an outcome where Trump wins about 13 of the 15 battleground states.
Original post by 999tigger
Whats that meat to mean? theres seems to be no logic at all in what you did other than you wanted to produce an outcome where Trump wins about 13 of the 15 battleground states.
I think he's just saying things and hoping he's not going to get asked to expand further. You know, like Trump on a debate stage.
Original post by 999tigger
Whats that meat to mean? theres seems to be no logic at all in what you did other than you wanted to produce an outcome where Trump wins about 13 of the 15 battleground states.
Happy birthday.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Original post by ckfeister
That doesnt answer the question, it is merely a link to the realclear politics site and the opinion polls. I was just asking you the rationale behind why you decided Clinton would lose 13 of the 15 battleground states? You dont appear to know why.
Original post by 999tigger
That doesnt answer the question, it is merely a link to the realclear politics site and the opinion polls. I was just asking you the rationale behind why you decided Clinton would lose 13 of the 15 battleground states? You dont appear to know why.
I'm not entirely sure what he was attempting to prove. For the sake of curiosity I went through the predictor he linked to with the poll results from that page, voting for whichever candidate had the most poll "wins" for that state and choosing Trump for any ties, to minimise my liberal bias (I also gave Trump Iowa, which it had no polls for). I also elected to keep going after the battleground states (at which point Hillary was winning). I got the following result:
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by 999tigger
That doesnt answer the question, it is merely a link to the realclear politics site and the opinion polls. I was just asking you the rationale behind why you decided Clinton would lose 13 of the 15 battleground states? You dont appear to know why.
what margin did she have in each state on average? did you look at white-dominated regions?
Original post by ckfeister
what margin did she have in each state on average? did you look at white-dominated regions?
What do you have to indicate the margins are not accurate? You've referred to Trump's "secret army", but what research is there to indicate that this exists in any substantial quantity?
(edited 7 years ago)
I believe they are a she. I was just curuious as to the rationale behind things, which it seems on TSR seems to be asking too much for many posters.
This is how the BBC have it, based on the poll of polls of the last 5 in the BG states. Realclearpolitics gives a more details breakdown of polls.
This is how the BBC have it, based on the poll of polls of the last 5 in the BG states. Realclearpolitics gives a more details breakdown of polls.
Ofc you can say you dont believe the polls or they are all fixed or we got it wrong for Brexit (I always thought it would be closer). I think it will end up being closer as Trump will recover when the tape fades into the past, but he still has an uphill battle. The dems have the problem of getting the vote out.
Just makes this whole thread seem a bit odd.
Just makes this whole thread seem a bit odd.
Original post by ckfeister
Where the evidence that brexit has a secert army? According to polls, EU referendum was meant to be won by remaining side ON THE EXACT DAY OF THE POLLS by 6%... we left by what? nearly 4%??
Wait till the election day, this forum is bookmarked and we'll see aye.
Wait till the election day, this forum is bookmarked and we'll see aye.
So... you have no evidence?
Original post by ckfeister
Where the evidence that brexit has a secert army? According to polls, EU referendum was meant to be won by remaining side ON THE EXACT DAY OF THE POLLS by 6%... we left by what? nearly 4%??
Wait till the election day, this forum is bookmarked and we'll see aye.
Wait till the election day, this forum is bookmarked and we'll see aye.
The Brexit polls were virtually neck and neck, far too close to call. The shock came from the widespread 'common sense' assumption of pundits, investors and punters that Remain would likely win. In other words, they were surprised despite the polls, not because of them.
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Original post by anarchism101
The Brexit polls were virtually neck and neck, far too close to call. The shock came from the widespread 'common sense' assumption of pundits, investors and punters that Remain would likely win. In other words, they were surprised despite the polls, not because of them.
Posted from TSR Mobile
Posted from TSR Mobile
Trump and Clinton are neck to neck.
Original post by ckfeister
Polls guess by 100% turnout, on brexit anything under +7% on yougov means leave and I thought leave was going to win and did, no one else believed -cough- here -cough-
Trump has the " secert " army, anything below +9% (+ = Clinton // - = Trump) if the state is male-dominated and +5% if 55-70% white if -4% and black is almost even as whites than Clinton wins.
Based on it I think this...
Trump has the " secert " army, anything below +9% (+ = Clinton // - = Trump) if the state is male-dominated and +5% if 55-70% white if -4% and black is almost even as whites than Clinton wins.
Based on it I think this...
Are you basing this on any actual facts or just assuming?
Posted from TSR Mobile
Original post by ckfeister
You got evidence that brexit had the secret army?
It might surprise you to hear this, but you can't use the Brexit outcome as any sort of indicator for the USA election.
Original post by ckfeister
Trump and Clinton are neck to neck.
lol
Original post by ckfeister
Trump and Clinton are neck to neck.
No, Clinton is at least a few points ahead. Anywhere from 5 to 9, depending on whose average you're checking.
Posted from TSR Mobile
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by anarchism101
No, Clinton is at least a few points ahead. Anywhere from 5 to 9, depending on whose average you're checking.
Posted from TSR Mobile
Posted from TSR Mobile
Original post by anarchism101
What about the " shy " voters, go and look it up. Clinton has no shy voters or barely any, Trump has a swing on the shy voters who haven't voted in decades. If its a white-dominated region by at least 70% they'll need +9% to win. 55% then +4% if lots of black % or other minorities -3% to win. Now go and do the polling again and see the results, check up Donald Trump shy voters if you want.
Original post by ckfeister
Trump and Clinton are neck to neck.
Where are they neck and neck?
Who says they are neck and neck?
Original post by ckfeister
What about the " shy " voters, go and look it up. Clinton has no shy voters or barely any, Trump has a swing on the shy voters who haven't voted in decades. If its a white-dominated region by at least 70% they'll need +9% to win. 55% then +4% if lots of black % or other minorities -3% to win. Now go and do the polling again and see the results, check up Donald Trump shy voters if you want.
I just asked you this, where is your evidence that Trump has a meaningful level of support from a "secret army" of undecided/third party voters that aren't already represented in the polls?
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