"We've all heard it said that the teams who finish one place below the automatic promotion places always lose out to teams who finished 20 points back in the play-offs, but what are the actual records of teams in each spot?" wondered Nathan Walker before last year's play-offs.

With that question hanging in the air, it was time for some good old-fashioned statistical analysis, meaning a delve into the record books, or www.rsssf.com as we like to call them. And because we value our readers we've updated our answer to include last year's play-offs too. To get a fair answer to this question we need, of course, to analyse the data from when the play-offs - in their current format - began: 1988-89. Since then, there have been a total of 54 promotions via the play-offs in the Championship, League One, and League Two (and their equivalents). If we rank the teams from one to four in a seeding system based on play-off positions in which they finished the regular season, we arrive at the following figures:

Championship (and equivalents): No1 seed: five promotions (27.8%); No2 seed: four promotions (22.2%); No3 seed: five promotions (27.8%); No4 seed: four promotions (22.2%).

League One (and equivalents): No1 seed: five promotions (27.8%); No2 seed: three promotions (16.6%); No3 seed: five promotions (27.8%); No4 seed: five promotions (27.8%).

League Two (and equivalents): No1 seed: 12 promotions (66.7%); No2 seed: two promotions (11.1%); No3 seed: two promotions (11.1%); No4 seed: two promotions (11.1%).

Overall: No1 seed: 22 promotions (40.7%); No2 seed: nine promotions (16.7%); No3 seed: 12 promotions (22.2%); No4 seed: 11 promotions (20.4%).

So there you have it. History suggests that the teams finishing fifth and third in the Championship are the most likely to reach the top-flight, Nottingham Forest had better start planning for another season in League One, while the scrum in League Two will clearly be for fourth place. And, overall, the top seed is the most likely to get promoted.

http://football.guardian.co.uk/theknowledge/story/0,,2075056,00.html

Reply 1386

Forté

2

EPD

So so happy MK Dons aren't going up. Does mean a 6th vs 7th playoff final in League Two too.

mind if i ask why? :rolleyes:

Reply 1387

EPD

OP

11

Hehe, no particular reason. I'd just much rather see Rovers or Shrewsbury go up.

Reply 1388

username47781

20

Well a lot of people see MK Dons as just a franchise club.

Reply 1389

shyopstv

15

domisakin

mind if i ask why? :rolleyes:

Because they are the sad result of a corporate entity sticking two fingers up to the fans of a perfectly good football club and therefore most people would hope to see them fail as miserably as possible even if only to make it less likely to happen to other clubs such as their own

Reply 1390

Forté

2

I see where your both coming from. But in all honesty, thats not justification to dislike a club. The way i see it, its others jumping onto the morally righteous bandwagon. I mean, after the way Leeds filed for administration to avoid the points deduction next season, im surprised nothing at all has been said!

The club were in dire financial circumstances, and it was therefore seen as a way out for the directors. Im not about to say such a relocation is good for football, in these circumstances it was perhaps the right choice. What annoys me is how clubs deliberately agree to - and then pull out of frendlies with the Dons in preseason, just to impress their own fans. (Happened 6 times last season). Or how the supporters group are refusing to recognise Dons fans. I guess it'll just take time for people to accept it - though im not expecting it to happen anytime to soon...

Reply 1391

EPD

OP

11

domisakin

I see where your both coming from. But in all honesty, thats not justification to dislike a club. The way i see it, its others jumping onto the morally righteous bandwagon. I mean, after the way Leeds filed for administration to avoid the points deduction next season, im surprised nothing at all has been said!

But it has. I, and I know many others, think that what Leeds and scummy Boston did is morally reprehensible, and I've moaned about it several times.

Reply 1392

username47781

20

Well apparantly they had to move or the club would have folded completely.

Reply 1393

shyopstv

15

Sounds like BS to me. If they were in such a bad situation, how did they manage to survive an entire season of attendances that would have been bad for a Conference team and then build a nice shiny new stadium in Milton Keynes?

Reply 1394

username47781

20

Blackpool will be playing Yeovil at Wembley, they're winning 3-1 with time just about up

Reply 1395

Forté

2

shyopstv

Sounds like BS to me. If they were in such a bad situation, how did they manage to survive an entire season of attendances that would have been bad for a Conference team and then build a nice shiny new stadium in Milton Keynes?

Dont forget they went into administration. That and the fact that current chairman Peter Winkleman bought the club out...

Reply 1396

cheapaschips1000

So who you all tipping for the play offs.

Championship :biggrin:

erby
League 1:Blackpool
League 2:Bristol Rovers

Funny in a way that we (I'm a big Doncaster fan) have played all 3 of these this season beating Derby on penalties in the Carling Cup, Blackpool twice in the league(best team I've seen this season) and Bristol Rovers in the Johnstons paint trophy which we won in extra time. That experience should spur them on.