Durham Law LLB 2024 chances of receiving an offer

I've recently submitted my application through ucas but I'm having second thoughts and want to apply to durham law. I'm not sure if i should substitute durham for Exeter (law with business - typical offer AAB-ABB) or Nottingham (law - typical offer A*AA). I know I can get an offer for both Notts and Exeter as my friend who applied earlier than me got an offer for Nottingham with AAA predicted and a similar personal statement in terms of strengths.
My predicted is A*AA, my mcq went fairly well for the lnat but the essay was a bit weak. I have strong references with multiple legal work experiences. Do I have a shot with Durham?