Do you reckon we will leave the eu?

Original post by Indeterminate

The brexiters are getting ahead in the polls but I hope the electorate will make the right decision (that is to stay in the EU) :tongue:

objectively the wrong decision though

Reply 23

OP

Original post by EuanF

Peter Hitchens (Who is both a Remainer and very intelligent) thinks that we'll be Leaving.

he is also a professional moaner and he says we will vote leave that doesn't mean we will actually leave
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3435536/PETER-HITCHENS-ahead-vote-ll-NEVER-leave-EU.html

Reply 24

OP

Original post by nexttimeigetvpn

The leave arguments are generally stupid, hollow things like:
- we get our democracy back
- less immigration
- we regain control
- we get British sovereignty
- we save x million per week and spend it on the NHS (yeah sure)
- we have the freedom to make our own trade deals

I think most undecided voters will realise that the economic arguments for remaining are far more solid things to build on, rather than some hollow promises delivered by very untrustworthy figures.

cannot tell if your post is sarcastic or not also this thread is about how people think the vote will go not necessarily advocating for one position

Reply 25

OP

I would say that if we do vote to leave they will try and weasel out of leaving and it will cause a huge **** storm maybe even trigger another election Cameron and Osbourne may have to resign with Boris taking over and Gove taking over Osbourne.

Reply 26

nexttimeigetvpn

Original post by karl pilkington

cannot tell if your post is sarcastic or not also this thread is about how people think the vote will go not necessarily advocating for one position

If you read the whole of my post instead of blindly attacking it like a mad dog, you could have realised that this was me saying that undecided voters will probably disregard the leave campaign's stupid statements and favour the remain's clear and simple economic stability.

Reply 27

EuanF

Original post by nexttimeigetvpn

If you read the whole of my post instead of blindly attacking it like a mad dog, you could have realised that this was me saying that undecided voters will probably disregard the leave campaign's stupid statements and favour the remain's clear and simple economic stability.

Do you have autism?

Reply 28

Paralove

21

I'm sincerely hoping the vote is to remain, but quite honestly I have no idea anymore as to which way it will swing and it worries me.

Reply 29

username402722

19

I want us to Remain.

I think that the turnout will be such that more older people will vote, who are more likely to vote Leave, and as a result the Leave vote will win. A bad day for this country.

Reply 30

username402722

19

Original post by karl pilkington

I would say that if we do vote to leave they will try and weasel out of leaving and it will cause a huge **** storm maybe even trigger another election Cameron and Osbourne may have to resign with Boris taking over and Gove taking over Osbourne.

Boris as PM would be a danger to the security of this country. At least I would feel safe with Gove as PM, even though there would be an economic downturn.

Reply 31

OP

Original post by barnetlad

Boris as PM would be a danger to the security of this country. At least I would feel safe with Gove as PM, even though there would be an economic downturn.

It is kind of inevitable if Remain win Boris will become leader. Also Boris plays the fool well but is actually very astute and not stupid. There is no reason why he wouldnt be a good PM when he was a good mayor of London.

Reply 32

username402722

19

Original post by karl pilkington

It is kind of inevitable if Remain win Boris will become leader. Also Boris plays the fool well but is actually very astute and not stupid. There is no reason why he wouldnt be a good PM when he was a good mayor of London.

The expensive bus with a conductor that doesn't take fares? The cable car to nowhere? The above inflation increase in train and tube fares? The two Police Commissioners who left? The tube strikes? The refusal to even meet Trade Unions once? The inaction over poor air quality?

Does not seem a success to me.

Stay.

OP

Original post by barnetlad

The expensive bus with a conductor that doesn't take fares? The cable car to nowhere? The above inflation increase in train and tube fares? The two Police Commissioners who left? The tube strikes? The refusal to even meet Trade Unions once? The inaction over poor air quality?

Does not seem a success to me.

yeah and Cameron has done a lot better I don't think so my point is he wouldn't be any worse than Cameron, Blair etc

Reply 35

bradnom

Even if the referendum results in a Leave majority, what form that takes would still need to be decided.
And MPs may well give us the worst option - the "Norway model" - having to make a contribution to the EU budget, accepting the free movement of people, but being unable to influence EU rules

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

Reply 36

Rakas21

21

I've never really had any doubt that the UK will vote to stay even as i decided to vote Leave myself.

That said, i have become less certain of the result over the past week or so. There's insufficient credible polling evidence to cause a step change in my opinion yet though.

The UK will stay and probably by 53%+.

Reply 37

Rakas21

21

Original post by karl pilkington

It is kind of inevitable if Remain win Boris will become leader. Also Boris plays the fool well but is actually very astute and not stupid. There is no reason why he wouldnt be a good PM when he was a good mayor of London.

It's certainly probably that Boris would win a plurality of the membership however it's far from certain that he has enough MP's backing him to get him on the ballot and heading for Out has if anything made that harder. If you look at the Tory leadership process it's the MP's who put two candidates to the party however when you look at the various MP groups you see how hard the task is because May is likely to take the establishment MP's and a large chunk of the Euro-skeptics and right of the party. Boris has screwed himself out of the establishment MP's by setting himself against the PM (and the manner he did it), he's not right wing enough for the Peter Bone's and Mogg's of the party to back him and Boris is therefore left with a particular center-right Euro-skeptic group of MP's, but that's probably only about 50 MP's if he's lucky.

I'm not a fan myself but May has been the big winner from all this. She's right wing enough to please back benches, in the same way that Boris is not believed to be a skeptic, nobody really believes she's anything less than euro-skeptic but unlike Boris she's perceived as loyal and part of the establishment. This gives her access to several groups of MP's if you will whereas Boris is likely fighting with a right wing back bencher for the rest of the votes.

Reply 38

sebby491

Hopefully we vote to leave but I think too many people are scared and easily manipulated and a small part of me thinks it will somehow be fixed to ensure we remain.

Reply 39

OP