Tory MP resigns for taking bribes- can UKIP win the seat?

Why is this country trying to oppress UKIP so much?

For the same reasons it oppresses extremist Islam. You can get as much support as you like but in the end you're catering to a very disillusioned minority, and people don't want their kids growing up in a country run by bigots and racists simply because they chanted "der takin ur jobs! Blame the EU!" and some idiots believed them.

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 21

Rakas21

21

Original post by thesabbath

Like when he three-line whipped his MPs to vote against holding an EU referendum in 2011 (and 79 of them rebelled). Good old Cast Iron Dave. Of course he wants to give us that referendum doesn't he :rolleyes:

Being fair he was right to whip against for that first vote in 2011 however by not disciplining any of those 79 (he should have withdrawn the whip from some and threatened to put up other candidates in their seats) he invited further rebellion (also going unpunished). Why he never took a 3 line whip to gay marriage is also perplexing.

Cameron's a good guy and from a managerial point of view he seems reasonably competent most of the time but he's too much of a compromiser where as he needs to take a hard line to some of the back benches who frankly appear like they'd prefer opposition to an 'unpure' Tory government led by Cameron after 2015.

Reply 22

the bear

20

it would be great if Boris stood against Nigel for the vacant seat. game on !!

Reply 23

thesabbath

2

Original post by Rakas21

Being fair he was right to whip against for that first vote in 2011 however by not disciplining any of those 79 (he should have withdrawn the whip from some and threatened to put up other candidates in their seats) he invited further rebellion (also going unpunished). Why he never took a 3 line whip to gay marriage is also perplexing.

Cameron's a good guy and from a managerial point of view he seems reasonably competent most of the time but he's too much of a compromiser where as he needs to take a hard line to some of the back benches who frankly appear like they'd prefer opposition to an 'unpure' Tory government led by Cameron after 2015.

He's leading the wrong party. Cameron isn't a conservative, he's a sopping wet liberal who gets all his policies from his Greenpeace-loving wife.

Reply 24

Rakas21

21

Original post by thesabbath

Last February the media classes were convinced that UKIP were coming 4th in Eastleigh, or at best scraping third place. But the day it was announced they had beaten the Conservatives into second and nearly claimed the seat, the message changed. It was suddenly all "Farage bottled it", "Nigel would have won, but he was too scared to stand". There was never any likelihood he would stand in Newark, it's just pathetic to claim this is for reasons of cowardice. It would have been tactically imbecilic to stand (not to mention that he has no links with the area).

I can't comment on the media as a whole but Nick Robinson, Andrew Neil and Alan Johnson were all saying that Ukip were extremely strong on the ground and would probably pip the Tories in the week or so before the by-election.

Reply 25

Rakas21

21

Original post by thesabbath

He's leading the wrong party. Cameron isn't a conservative, he's a sopping wet liberal who gets all his policies from his Greenpeace-loving wife.

Cameron's a wet Thatcherite in terms of his economic and foreign policy instincts. Your right that he's not socially conservative though (his instincts are probably liberal on most social matters) and he's far too populist to go against public opinion on an issue as big as Europe. While pulling us out of the EPP suggests that he may have Euro-skeptic instincts he does not have it in him to risk declaring that position when he does not believe the country would vote to leave (hence the wishy washy negotiation).

Reply 26

CryptoidAlien

3

Original post by CJKay

For the same reasons it oppresses extremist Islam. You can get as much support as you like but in the end you're catering to a very disillusioned minority, and people don't want their kids growing up in a country run by bigots and racists simply because they chanted "der takin ur jobs! Blame the EU!" and some idiots believed them.

So it's wrong to oppress extremist islam? and why is UKIP racist for? and since when does UKIP oppress Islam :s-smilie:

because they may not let people like you have their way with them? because they have UK in their title? Nah, me thinks you jsut have things your own way at the expense of others and you want it to stay like that, so the race card is your only outlet. I suppose your sense of entitlement is the real problem.

Reply 27

CJKay

19

Original post by CryptoidAlien

So it's wrong to oppress extremist islam? and why is UKIP racist for? and since when does UKIP oppress Islam :s-smilie:

because they may not let people like you have their way with them? because they have UK in their title? Nah, me thinks you jsut have things your own way at the expense of others and you want it to stay like that, so the race card is your only outlet. I suppose your sense of entitlement is the real problem.

Wtf? Are your literacy skills nonexistent? I don't think you have any idea of the meaning of what I wrote.

Then again, that would satisfy the "typical UKIP supporter" persona, so perhaps I should have expected that.

Reply 28

Stewie2011

12

Original post by Ace123

Rumours are going around that Nigel Farage could stand in the seat. It is a safe Tory at and they got over 50% of the vote in 2010 but could UKIP beat them? Also what do you think Labour and Libdems will do both have no chance so will they bother to stand or will they help the Tories and not stand.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27208966

Doubtful, since the Tories will be running with a different candidate, so history shows that in such a case there is little kickback from the sleaze of the candidate who has stepped down since voters tend to take it as a different person. The party would have to show itself to be as sleaze ridden as it was in the 90's for there to be a party wide kickback from voters, there's been a few cases but probably not there yet. Neil Hamilton lost in the 90's as he was already mired in sleaze when he went to the polls and even then Martin Bell had to make a real effort to overturn his majority.

UK Voters tend to be more stodgy in their voting when it comes to the General Election, voting history has shown. That said I think it would be a massive effort on the part of UKIP and heavy financing with Nigel standing for them to even be in contention. I think it would be doubtful that UKIP would take the seat. Think the Tories will get it with a much reduced majority seeing as Labour had it before 2001 which indicates there is quite a lot of swing voters which not many constituencies have. Often there is a hard core lump of voters in most constituencies that will vote for the same party at each election however deeply unpopular the party has become. So it's this lump block of voters that both Labour and the Tories have that UKIP would be up against and will be hard for them to get through.

Seeing it is a by-election one year away from the General Election it means that this seat would be contested in a year's time again anyway so would not be seen by UKIP as worth the time or money fore Nigel to stand in it and spend a lot of money on unless they were confident of a win. I don't think Nigel will put himself forward for it, its more of a publicity gain for them for him suggesting that he might. Would have thought it an amateurish move for them to put Nigel forward and spend a lot of money on, which they would need to do, unless they really do feel he could take it as it would be a real expensive diversion from the party's prospects as a whole. If he did manage to get in then yes it would be a bonus come the election but I doubt they would get quite enough votes for it I think.

Reply 29

scrotgrot

16

Farage will not stand, it would destroy his credibility because he has no links with the area, it's clear opportunism and he knows that come the real election he might well be straight back out due to backlash and buyer's remorse especially in such a no-hoper constituency.

Reply 30

euphful

8

Original post by Rakas21

Why would Cameron possibly need to reign when it's not even a sitting MP that Farage would have faced.

The only single moment where i thought that Cameron should have resigned was when he failed to get 50% of his MP's to vote for gay marriage, that was truly weak leadership (further highlighted by the number of smaller rebellions he allows to happen).

I personally don't think Cameron would have had to resign had he won. A government losing a by-election one year from an election is hardly going to bring down a Prime Minister. Farage seemed to think otherwise though!

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