It's difficult to say; in terms of UCAS points, my AS grade average was the same as yours (AACC). However by the time I applied to university, I'd already completed a full A Level (Citizenship Studies) and attained an A* at the end of it (after getting a C at AS). I was predicted A* History and A Politics.
It is possible that the D could be held against you, especially on History - it is one of of the most competitive degree programmes you can apply for. When I applied for History the first time around, I received conditional offers from York (AAA), Liverpool (AAB), Manchester (AAA) and Reading (can't remember) but was rejected by Durham (A*AA). Having said that, it is in an unrelated subject and one you are dropping. Many universities will not consider your GCSEs as long as your A Level performance is respectable - mine are awful! If anything, good GCSEs will work in your favour.
Particularly if you think you could get a projected grade of A in Biology or A* in History, I think you stand a very good chance still when applying for top courses, though you should make sure to have a killer personal statement. Make sure you pick a mix of courses though - don't just go for Russell Group across the board. When I applied, I chose three top universities (Manchester, Durham and York), one good (Liverpool) and one insurance (Reading). I'd probably suggest doing something similar, perhaps with an extra good and one less top if you're concerned.