They wont (or at least not all of them)
The TEF uses the following metrics and is unlikely to award anything above bronze to universities that don't outperform the sector once subject mix, entry qualifications and a few other things
(age, ethnicity, sex, disability, participation rates of postcodes) have been adjusted for.
Teaching qualityNSS teaching
NSS assessment and feed back
Learning environmentNSS academic support
Non continuation after first year
Student outcomes and learning gainEmployment/further study 6 months after graduation
Highly skill employment 6 months after graduation
It's unlikely that many members of the Russell Group will be performing above BENCHMARKS for these measures or across the majority of the measures.
The guidance used by the panel is
- A provider with 3 or more positive flags and no negative flags should be considered initially as GOLD
- A provider with 2 or more negative flags should be considered initially as BRONZE
- All other providers should be considered initially as SILVER
When the THE produced a mock TEF (looking at only 1 years data and only 1 question from the NSS and not at the specific 3 sections that make up 50% of the TEF):
LSE, KCL, UCL and Bristol all came out as significantly below benchmarks for NSS.
Manchester, QMUL, Sheffield and Liverpool all came out below benchmarks for employability.
That's a large chunk of the RG looking like they're going to have to do some amazing talking (or hope that the more detailed data is more positive) to avoid a BRONZE rating.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teaching-excellence-framework-year-2-specification