How Likely am I to get an offer from Kings or Edinburgh

I really want to do Physics at Kings or Edinburgh but my predicted grades are ABB and an A in Welsh Bacc but last year due to covid I got violated and my teachers gave me the unfair grades of CCC my teachers are also saying its a risky choice to choose them. Is there any point keeping those options??

Kings is AAB and Edinburgh is ABB-AAA (I think ABB is a contextual but they’re more accepting of Welsh bacc as Kings doesn’t count Welsh bacc)

Well, you're a bit on the low side, but these are predictions not actual grades. Consider a couple of things...

If either university offered you AAA would you firm them?

The aim is not to get all 5 offers, it's to get 2+ offers that you like. As long as your other choices are slightly lower then you aren't really risking anything of substance.

Applying to one or perhaps two courses which are one grade above your current predictions is pretty normal and fine, if that is their standard offer. Edinburgh expresses the standard offer in a range and explain though that the lower end of that range is normally for contextual offers, and that students applying to many of their programmes will regularly exceed the higher end of that offer range.

Would you be eligible for a contextual offer from either? I think Edinburgh seems a significant reach if not, as that range normally encompasses contextual offers (at the low end) and the standard offer (which is the high end - and remember a lot of students applying probably exceed that). Kings is I think a reasonable aspirational choice though so I think that is fine, even if you aren't eligible for a contextual offer from them.

Thanks for the replies guys turn out I was eligible for a contextual with kings and got offered a place if I get ABC!!! also ended up taking Edinburough out since it was a reach and I was 100% sure I wasn't eligible for a contextual because I did their online test thing.