Contextual Offer Likelihood

I am eligible for contextual offers at every university I have looked at (RGs or highly ranked non-RG) but I still question the chances of receiving it as the security it provides is incredible and would reduce my stresses significantly. Generally, I tick multiple boxes (e.g. first gen, disability, area deprivation, state school) - anyone have any knowledge in this as universities usually claim there is only potential to receive the reduced post code offer. My predicted grades are around 3 grades higher than the contextual offer on average so would this improve the likelihood of being accepted overall?

There are a couple of issues here,

Disability isnt an issue for contextual offers in most universities. It is treated as an extentuating circumstance. First generation applies to a few universities only. State school isnt a reason either. It is whether you are in a poorly performing school.

Just meeting contextual offers doesnt mean you will get an offer. They could reject you especially if the course is one of high demand. If they do decide to make you an offer and you meet the contextual conditions they will give you the lower contextual offer.

The issue with contextual offers is that they vary between universities. There isnt a set standard. Most universities use post code in a deprived area and school where you are sitting your A level in is in the bottom 40%. This list changes every year. Some accept 1 condition. Others require 2.

They gather this from your ucas form and if you are entitled to a contextual offer and they decide to make that offer then the lower grade is what they make.

As can be seen from the contextual information from Bristol there is nothing about First in Family to attend university or disability and they make contextual offers if you meet one of their conditions

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=0f458a0f9f9efd5dJmltdHM9MTY5MTUzOTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0zNjQzYjFiYS0yNzM0LTZlMzItMWRhNy1hMWNlMjYxMzZmYTkmaW5zaWQ9NTE5NA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=3643b1ba-2734-6e32-1da7-a1ce26136fa9&psq=bristol+university+contextual+offer&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYnJpc3RvbC5hYy51ay9zdHVkeS91bmRlcmdyYWR1YXRlL2VudHJ5LXJlcXVpcmVtZW50cy1xdWFsaWZpY2F0aW9ucy9jb250ZXh0dWFsLW9mZmVycy8&ntb=1

Leeds on the other hand requires 2 flags to be met but has different conditions

https://www.leeds.ac.uk/access-to-leeds/doc/am-i-eligible

I should of clarified that my school for GSCE's significantly underperforms although unsure on my Sixth Form (different from where I took GCSEs). Some universities I have seen includes challenges to education as a contextual flag (such as Leeds) but this varies as you have said. My area is IMD 1 and POLAR4 1 which is sometimes considered separate flags - my question should of been phrased better but I wondered if I received an offer overall, what is the chance of it being a contextual offer? If I meet the required criteria or more for the contextual offer should I rely on it for security or consider it entirely random to a degree which shouldn't influence my applications. I know this varies tremendously between universities and applicants but it would be detrimental to believe that my offer will be reduced if I am accepted and then find myself with a riskier insurance and firm

If you meet the contextual criteria for a specific university you will get the contextual offer if they make an offer at all. Basically the systems are set up to check for things like post code, schooling and care and if you meet the criteria you will be given the lower offer. Just because you are entitled to the contextual grades doesnt mean you will be given an offer at all. Places like London universities and subjects like Medicine are heavily over subscribed and they reject loads who meet their minimum entry requirement so you do need to be aware of that but if they make you an offer and you are entitled to it you will be given the lower offer.

Perhaps it will help if I explain some of the reasoning behind the making of contextual offers. The government were getting increasingly concerned that the numbers of poorer students going into top universities was extremely low. At the time around 60% of students going into Oxford were from state schools. A number of other universities had very low rates of school students gong there. These included Cambridge, Bristol, Exeter, Durham and a number of London universities. To improve the percentages of poorer and disadvantaged students going there contextual flags meant students were given lower offers so as can be seen it is in a university's interest to make these offers. They are generally 2 grades lower eg A*AA would be a contextual offer of AAB.