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Do college admissions statistics REALLY not matter?

Hi everyone, I'm applying for HSPS (Cambridge) and I'm choosing between Clare, Fitzwilliam and Kings. I like Clare the most but it is incredibly popular for HSPS and its acceptance rate is 12% (across the last 5 years, including those sent to the pool), which is much lower comparison to Fitzwilliam's 20.5%. I worry that applying to a super competitive college may make me stand out less, and Fitzwilliam might be a safer option. I'm aware of the winter pool but it seems like Clare doesn't send a lot of students into the pool successfully in comparison to King's, rejecting them instead. What do you think? Am I reading too much into statistics and I should just apply, or should I think more carefully?

(edited 7 months ago)

Reply 1

artful_lounger

Universities Forum Helper

You really absolutely can't game the college system to "increase" your chances of admission. The whole process is set up such to ensure that "Cambridge material" students are fairly considered even if applying to an oversubscribed college. Trying to rationalise this can lead to incorrect conclusions - it may well be the reason the Clare statistics are like that is becuase for the last few years people like you have tried to "abuse" the college system when Clare might've been less popular, and applied there while weaker applicants and Clare simply did not take them.

Applying to a college with a higher success rate as a weaker applicant does not increase your chance of getting into Cambridge as they are very clear that they would rather take no students than weaker ones.

Just pick one you like the general vibe of and remember there's a fair chance you'll end up at another college anyway.

Reply 2

joe_y.i

I would argue that although those statistics indicate the acceptance rate. As all statistics they only act as a 'snapshot in time' of what grades were like that year. Let's just say that next year is super competitive with many great candidates, although it could have the same acceptance rate, it will ultimately depend on still how you and other candidates as individuals compare against one another. For example, they don't accept less or more students because last year they only accepted 20, and it could be suggested the reason King's have more pool offers than Clare is that either because those at King's took an admissions test for HSPS, or that for some reason the better candidates those years just so happened to apply to King's.

In my opinion, being the best student you can, and the best applicant you can be will probably better your chances then worrying about statistics.

Reply 3

Paralove

Application numbers don't tell you anything about the *quality*.

Reply 4

Susieq55

You could tie yourself in knots doing this. Pooling is supposed to act like a moderator - the candidates that are considered good enough but no space at the college they applied to. Other colleges would rather have a good prospect from the pool than a weaker one that applied directly. Sure some colleges tend to take more from the pool than others, and that might be because they are less popular. But that doesn’t mean the people they fish are weaker - there are so many brilliant students that get pooled they don’t need to lower their standards!
While I might avoid applying to the super popular colleges like Kings, I’d still choose a college I liked for it’s size, location, vibe and that admits a reasonable amount of students studying my subject.