Should I change my 5th choice

I need some honest advice. I’m applying for politics and I sent off UCAS three days ago with my 5th choice being Bristol. The reason why is because due to the area I live in is be considered for a contextual offer (ABB). I’m worried because if I don’t get this contextual offer I would need to get AAA which is the same requirements at my other 3 universities. Do you think this is risky and I should replace it with Surrey who want BBB? I know Bristol’s more prestigious but I really don’t care and I don’t have a much knowledge about Bristol but cause I’ve already sent off my application I’d need to substitute my choice quickly when my school sends it off? What should I do? Surrey or Bristol?

If you're eligible for a contextual and Bristol want to make you an offer, then that's what you will get, not the standard offer.

wait is it automatic then. i thought it was just that you would be "considered"

yes, if you qualify then you get it, if they offer.

Switching would depend on how confident you are about getting the AAA to ABB from your Universities if offered. If in doubt, then take one of the 3 AAA courses and switch for Surrey

i'd like to say im pretty confident in being able to get AAA if i put my mind to it ( fingers crossed) but i was just worried sbout Bristol specifically so idk. if bristol do give me an offer and so did my other uni then that would let me have 2 ABB offers and 3 AAA offers. idk how risky that is. Also, can i just substitute one of them even after Ucas has sent it off to the universities. how does that work