I agree that there is a horiffic trend of people simply not believing women who claim that they were raped, but I reject the notion that predatory men are soley, or even mostly to blame.
Before I begin I'll just say that the intoxication levels of the attacker should have no bearing in the outcome of any trial for any crime, ever. For a start, if a man's so drunk he doesn't understand a 'no' then he's far beyond getting an erection; and anybody who assumes consent deserves what they get.
I moderate a mid-sized forum aimed at teenagers so online as well in real life with friends I am always shocked (and honestly a little disgusted) at how willing people, mostly females in my experience, are to assume rape. I'm not saying that drunk/drugged/scantily clad people deserve to be raped by any stretch, but an alarming number of young women are far too prepared after a night drinking and waking up next to someone to assume that they have been raped. I am sure that some of these people were genuinely taken advantage of, but my point will come shortly.
Just to contextualise this, we have an anonymous submission form for posting in a specific thread. We can trace IPs in case we decide that people are genuinely in danger of hurting themselves/others but we never trace anonymous posts otherwise. We had a post from a girl who said that she'd been out for the night and she decided to leave. Her male friend accompanied her home to make sure she came to no harm, and in the morning she woke up next to him with a used condom on the floor. She basically assumed she'd been raped. Now I know most of the active members quite well and recognised the posting style. I knew one of the girls had been out that night and I knew she was with another forumer who I expected was 'the friend. I asked him about it and he told me that he'd taken her back and they were both tipsy but coherent and she'd basically thrown herself at him. I have no reason to doubt him. I known the guy for years, he's polite and conscientious, has always taken good care of his female friends in terms of keeping them safe, to my knowledge has always been the perfect gentlemen. Now, from my experience (and some extremely embarrasing videos which are the evidence >_<) I know that if you drink a fair amount quickly you can end up forgetting things before the point of oblivion, so I'm willing to take his word on it that he didn't violate her. I'm not sure that I should doubt her claim either though but she offers no knowledge and he had a sincere and honest (it seemed) recollection of events. It disturbed me that she would wantonly, with no memory of before or during the act, accuse a guy we have both knwon to be an excellent example of what young people should aspire to be and she has never had any reason to distrust, of a crime so severe as rape.
I know that there is cause to believe them both, but given the circumstances he seems the more credible. I don't know if this is a standard model accross the board, but the frequency or accusations in tenuous cicumstances surely has some part to play.