TSR Foreign Affairs Hub

What do people here think about the so called east African oil and gas rush, it's impact on oil and gas prices, and whether it can help countries such as Mozambique, Tanzania, Somalia, Kenya etc develop?

Will it be the new middle east or just follow Nigeria's example?

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Reply 1982

Phantom Lord

13

Egyptian army gives Morsi 48 hours to resign

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/egypts-army-gives-president-morsi-48-hours-to-quit-after-muslim-brotherhood-offices-are-ransacked-8681882.html

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 1983

Original post by Phantom Lord

Egyptian army gives Morsi 24 hours to resign

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/egypts-army-gives-president-morsi-48-hours-to-quit-after-muslim-brotherhood-offices-are-ransacked-8681882.html

I was watching this and thought if the tensions did not calm the army would step in. But Geez I was not expecting them to get involved quite so soon. I wonder if they will give democracy another chance or if Egypt will just be a military Junta from now on.

Reply 1984

username129099

15

Can't help thinking this is a really poor decision. You don't transition from a dictatorship into a perfect democracy overnight. The military cannot in any civilised nation just step in and overthrow the elected officials because they don't like how things are going, that is simply not how it works. If there is a political problem its needs to be solved politically. If the military has the power to make and break a president, its just another dictatorship but with the military at its head anyone elected is going to have to pander to their will.

Reply 1985

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23301591

Looks like a show trial could end up happening

Reply 1986

Brutal Honesty

8

Original post by doggyfizzel

Can't help thinking this is a really poor decision. You don't transition from a dictatorship into a perfect democracy overnight. The military cannot in any civilised nation just step in and overthrow the elected officials because they don't like how things are going, that is simply not how it works. If there is a political problem its needs to be solved politically. If the military has the power to make and break a president, its just another dictatorship but with the military at its head anyone elected is going to have to pander to their will.

Egypt hadn't fully made the transition towards democracy even after Morsi's election. By all accounts the military still held most of the power in Egypt throughout the duration of Morsi's presidency. There was no independent judiciary in place in Egypt either, the courts were openly biased towards the military (specifically SCAF) and there to block the democratic transition. Their role in dissolving the elected parliament and the constitution (which passed a referendum with a 64% majority) was specifically aimed at halting Egypt's democratic reforms. This was also the reason why Morsi issued his decree stating his decisions were being no longer subject to judicial oversight by the constitutional court - this is the same move which resulted in him being labelled a dictator when in fact it was a last ditch attempt to salvage Egypt's democracy.

The main area in which the government failed was repairing the disastrous Egyptian economy which had suffered under decades of corruption although this was an impossible task to manage given the circumstances. By the time Morsi had been elected, the public finances had managed to rack up a huge deficit comprising 11% of GDP and 1/3 of public spending was spent on subsidies for fuel and bread. Meanwhile the Egyptian military made up around 40% of the Egyptian economy - higher than Iran and Pakistan, and corrupt businessmen linked to the military and former regime were the other big players in the economy. The government achieved moderate success in their reforms of the corrupt subsidies programme by ensuring money went directly to bakers rather than suppliers and that subsidised bread was evenly distributed through a smart-card rationing system. Morsi failed especially in the energy sector as Egypt suffered from continuous power cuts, price hikes and energy shortages during his presidency but the miraculous return of these supplies as soon as Morsi was ousted indicates companies were deliberately withholding supply in a deliberate campaign to undermine his government and support the coup.

The new "unity government" doesn't look too great at the moment, they are have already rounded up Morsi and members of the Muslim Brotherhood and charged them with serious offences, they've shut down media outlets which criticise the coup and show support for Morsi, the army has massacred over 50 people who protested against the coup and the new constitution has adopted a more hard line and sectarian nature, probably due to the close relationship between the Sunni monarchies and the Egyptian military and the strong hostility the Sunni monarchies hold towards the Muslim Brotherhood with the UAE sentencing 69 people to 15 year jail terms for alleged involvement in the Muslim Brotherhood. Also, Islamist groups further right of the Muslim Brotherhood (and joined in the protests in calling for him to step down) have used this coup as proof peaceful participation in democratic politics is meaningless and thus look likely to resort to violence to achieve their goal of authoritarian Islamist rule.

Reply 1987

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23554652

Seems the US is expecting some sort of terror attack

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23554443

Mugabe has won a Zimbabwe election called free and fair by the AU

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 1988

Original post by Aj12

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23554652

Seems the US is expecting some sort of terror attack

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23554443

Mugabe has won a Zimbabwe election called free and fair by the AU

Have you seen which countries the election observers came from lol?

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Reply 1989

Original post by Umar1

Have you seen which countries the election observers came from lol?

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Haven't seen an actual breakdown. I'm going on a limb here and saying corrupt ones?

Reply 1990

Original post by Aj12

Haven't seen an actual breakdown. I'm going on a limb here and saying corrupt ones?

All EU, US banned.

Cubans, Venezuelans and other countries were invited, as well as the daddy of all corrupt entities in Africa, the AU.

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Reply 1991

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23585923

The US has flown all embassy staff out of Yemen as has the UK and told all citizens to leave immoderately. The Yemini government has brought in armored vehicles and dozens of al Qaeda fighters have shown up in the country

Reply 1992

username129099

15

I guess the drone program in Yemen isn't working quite as well as the US had hoped. Again its just a demonstration of the dangers of ungoverned or poorly governed space for the US.

Reply 1993

castlemadeofsand

1

I don't understand how an organization on the brink of destruction, one that was severely fragmented and weakened, is suddenly now able to pose as great a threat as is suddenly being made out.

Reply 1994

username358506

20

Don't believe the hype, guys.

The NSA's spying programme was almost dumped when it was put to a vote in the House. Unfortunately, only 205 voted in favour of stopping it, whilst 217 were against; which might be a reason as to why Republicans and supporters of prism are actively trying to scare just about everyone in the Western World with their temporary closure of the embassies across the Middle East and North Africa.

Why do I have the strangest incline, however, that next week - when the embassies are reopened - something will happen to an embassy and the NSA & Co will tell us 'we told you so.'

How can we possibly 'win' when the U.S. administration blatantly ignores what it does in the Muslim world, is completely outraged when a group such as AQAP kill a few of its personnel due to the U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen (amongst other things), and decides to add more fuel to the fire by targeting those of whom targeted U.S. personnel with drones....

Logic, America, logic!

Reply 1995

http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2013/08/08/north-koreas-next-provocation-when-and-why/?cid=nlc-public-the_world_this_week-link27-20130809&sp_mid=42269624&sp_rid=YWxleHNtZWltYW5AZ21haWwuY29tS0

The next North Korean provocation when and why? Pretty good article.

Reply 1996

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23761048

Leader of Boko Haram may be dead

Reply 1997

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20131204/DEFREG02/312040017/Rep-Hunter-US-Should-Use-Tactical-Nukes-Iran-Strikes-Become-Necessary

A nice boost to the negotiations with Iran. A US senator suggests nuclear weapons should be used on Iran if needed.

Reply 1998