TSR Foreign Affairs Hub
Scroll to see replies
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16344102
Ok so same threat, but slightly different. This time Iran are claiming they will shut the straits if more sanctions are imposed, this time it comes from the vice president. It does make me wonder if Iran wants the US to attack them.
Ok so same threat, but slightly different. This time Iran are claiming they will shut the straits if more sanctions are imposed, this time it comes from the vice president. It does make me wonder if Iran wants the US to attack them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/28/us-iran-us-hormuz-idUSTRE7BR0OE20111228
US fifth fleet response to the Iranian threat
(Reuters) - The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it will not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving through the strategic oil route.
"The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity," a spokesperson for the Bahrain-based fleet said in a written response to queries from Reuters about the possibility of Iran trying to close the waterway.
"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."
Asked whether it was taking specific measures in response to the threat to close the Strait, the fleet said it "maintains a robust presence in the region to deter or counter destabilizing activities," without providing further detail.
US fifth fleet response to the Iranian threat
(Reuters) - The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it will not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving through the strategic oil route.
"The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity," a spokesperson for the Bahrain-based fleet said in a written response to queries from Reuters about the possibility of Iran trying to close the waterway.
"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."
Asked whether it was taking specific measures in response to the threat to close the Strait, the fleet said it "maintains a robust presence in the region to deter or counter destabilizing activities," without providing further detail.
Original post by Aj12
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16344102
Ok so same threat, but slightly different. This time Iran are claiming they will shut the straits if more sanctions are imposed, this time it comes from the vice president. It does make me wonder if Iran wants the US to attack them.
Ok so same threat, but slightly different. This time Iran are claiming they will shut the straits if more sanctions are imposed, this time it comes from the vice president. It does make me wonder if Iran wants the US to attack them.
However could they think the peaceloving US could even think of attacking them?
Original post by morris743
However could they think the peaceloving US could even think of attacking them?
Iran reminds me of a child with a stick pokng a bear. Only the bear wants to kill the kid anyway, its just making things worse for itself in the long run.
Original post by Aj12
Iran reminds me of a child with a stick pokng a bear. Only the bear wants to kill the kid anyway, its just making things worse for itself in the long run.
I wonder why Iran is like this. Is it defending itself, or is it the devil incarnate placed here to destroy goodness and light personified, the United States and Israel?
Original post by Aj12
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16344102
Ok so same threat, but slightly different. This time Iran are claiming they will shut the straits if more sanctions are imposed, this time it comes from the vice president. It does make me wonder if Iran wants the US to attack them.
Ok so same threat, but slightly different. This time Iran are claiming they will shut the straits if more sanctions are imposed, this time it comes from the vice president. It does make me wonder if Iran wants the US to attack them.
A military "surgical" strike would be to the regimes huge benefit, it would be a godsend. This is almost a unanimous view of all analysts on iranian affairs and the result of several simulations run in washington. (I linked them before in this thread) From the regimes point of view, the loss of a nuclear program through foreign agressor would not be very significant but rather the potential of a huge legitimacy gain is very disastrous.
It comes down to the vital question/decision, do you care more about the nuclear program or the regimes overall strength? what do you view as the real problem?
A full invasion would obviously not be in the regimes interest, but the truth is no one wins in such a scenario.
On the oil "threat", i think its something they will never do. As i said, they don't have the luxury of simply "stopping" oil from being sold, their lives depend on the flow of oil. Personally, i don't think this regime will OVERTLY take the first move in any possible conflict. But trying everything else to provoke the other side is something that is very likely the situation here.
(edited 12 years ago)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/us-pakistan-militants-idUSTRE8020GP20120103
The head of and deputy Pakistan Taliban commanders are at each other's throats. "You will soon hear that one of them has eliminated the other, though hectic efforts are going on by other commanders and common friends to resolve differences between the two," one TTP commander said.
Any division within the TTP could hinder the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda's struggle in Afghanistan against the United States and its allies, making it more difficult to recruit young fighters and disrupting safe havens in Pakistan used by the Afghan militants.
The head of and deputy Pakistan Taliban commanders are at each other's throats. "You will soon hear that one of them has eliminated the other, though hectic efforts are going on by other commanders and common friends to resolve differences between the two," one TTP commander said.
Any division within the TTP could hinder the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda's struggle in Afghanistan against the United States and its allies, making it more difficult to recruit young fighters and disrupting safe havens in Pakistan used by the Afghan militants.
Gotta love Iran, telling the US aircraft carrier thats just left not to come back
"“We recommend to the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went to Gulf of Oman not to return to the Persian Gulf,” said Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, the commander in chief of the army, as reported by Iran’s official news agency, IRNA. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not repeat its warning.”
No I don't imagine they will repeat the warning, because when it does come back they are going to look like morons. If I was Obama I'd send it back just to piss them off
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/world/middleeast/iran-warns-the-united-states-over-aircraft-carrier.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto
"“We recommend to the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went to Gulf of Oman not to return to the Persian Gulf,” said Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, the commander in chief of the army, as reported by Iran’s official news agency, IRNA. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not repeat its warning.”
No I don't imagine they will repeat the warning, because when it does come back they are going to look like morons. If I was Obama I'd send it back just to piss them off
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/world/middleeast/iran-warns-the-united-states-over-aircraft-carrier.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto
Original post by Aj12
Gotta love Iran, telling the US aircraft carrier thats just left not to come back
"“We recommend to the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went to Gulf of Oman not to return to the Persian Gulf,” said Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, the commander in chief of the army, as reported by Iran’s official news agency, IRNA. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not repeat its warning.”
No I don't imagine they will repeat the warning, because when it does come back they are going to look like morons. If I was Obama I'd send it back just to piss them off
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/world/middleeast/iran-warns-the-united-states-over-aircraft-carrier.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto
"“We recommend to the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went to Gulf of Oman not to return to the Persian Gulf,” said Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, the commander in chief of the army, as reported by Iran’s official news agency, IRNA. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not repeat its warning.”
No I don't imagine they will repeat the warning, because when it does come back they are going to look like morons. If I was Obama I'd send it back just to piss them off
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/world/middleeast/iran-warns-the-united-states-over-aircraft-carrier.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto
Not that I'm aplogisong for the IRI, but the US presence in the persian gulf really is a slap in the face of all peoples of all nations in the region. This sort of thing is potentially a form of propoganda that could work for them to some extent. And i would expect a democratic iran to have a similar attitude, although they probably wouldnt be confrontational and therefore supress their objections. Although again, who knows with the egos iranians have. All of us :P
But in general theyre saying these things to a domestic audience. They're not phonecalling obama or us diplomats and expressing their concern, theyre getting Mr. Big Army General to talk to state tv.
The regime is seriously suffering economically (again in the news today , the population is panicking at the free falling of the exchange rate of the rial
) and are in a really weak position so they do these things as a desperate show of "strength". So really, seeing this is a good thing. The white house spokesperson said the same thing. But that doesnt get the headlines
By the way, there wont be a war with the US or even israel. (In response to your recent posts on other threads). This would only happen if the regime provokes one delibrately and i dont see that possibility at moment. For 33 years, every US election year we see the same bs talk from bothbsides and theres even been times of much MUCH higher tensions between US and Iran ( in contrast to the headlines today making it seem that us-iran sabre rattling is arecent phenomenan, its almost as if iran and the US were best friends last year) and nothing happened. (I.e when iran directly killed 300 US marines in one blow in the 1980s). So there wont be al war, especially not because of some political he said she said. Even the CURRENT mossad chief said so last week...
And the nuclear issue is not a technical issue, its a political issue. Right now anyway. If and When this regime starts diverting uranium (obviously this would include just the expulsion of the inspectors), THEN it becomes a technical issue. At which point, the US will swiftly find a way to take the program out. At which point i dont see any room for debate and it would undoubtly have international support. So as ive said before the nuclear issue is really a non-issue.
(edited 12 years ago)
Original post by MxSK
Not that I'm aplogisong for the IRI, but the US presence in the persian gulf really is a slap in the face of all peoples of all nations in the region. This sort of thing is potentially a form of propoganda that could work for them to some extent. And i would expect a democratic iran to have a similar attitude, although they probably wouldnt be confrontational and therefore supress their objections. Although again, who knows with the egos iranians have. All of us :P
But in general theyre saying these things to a domestic audience. They're not phonecalling obama or us diplomats and expressing their concern, theyre getting Mr. Big Army General to talk to state tv.
The regime is seriously suffering economically (again in the news today , the population is panicking at the free falling of the exchange rate of the rial
) and are in a really weak position so they do these things as a desperate show of "strength". So really, seeing this is a good thing. The white house spokesperson said the same thing. But that doesnt get the headlines
By the way, there wont be a war with the US or even israel. (In response to your recent posts on other threads). This would only happen if the regime provokes one delibrately and i dont see that possibility at moment. For 33 years, every US election year we see the same bs talk from bothbsides and theres even been times of much MUCH higher tensions between US and Iran ( in contrast to the headlines today making it seem that us-iran sabre rattling is arecent phenomenan, its almost as if iran and the US were best friends last year) and nothing happened. (I.e when iran directly killed 300 US marines in one blow in the 1980s). So there wont be al war, especially not because of some political he said she said. Even the CURRENT mossad chief said so last week...
But in general theyre saying these things to a domestic audience. They're not phonecalling obama or us diplomats and expressing their concern, theyre getting Mr. Big Army General to talk to state tv.
The regime is seriously suffering economically (again in the news today , the population is panicking at the free falling of the exchange rate of the rial
) and are in a really weak position so they do these things as a desperate show of "strength". So really, seeing this is a good thing. The white house spokesperson said the same thing. But that doesnt get the headlines
By the way, there wont be a war with the US or even israel. (In response to your recent posts on other threads). This would only happen if the regime provokes one delibrately and i dont see that possibility at moment. For 33 years, every US election year we see the same bs talk from bothbsides and theres even been times of much MUCH higher tensions between US and Iran ( in contrast to the headlines today making it seem that us-iran sabre rattling is arecent phenomenan, its almost as if iran and the US were best friends last year) and nothing happened. (I.e when iran directly killed 300 US marines in one blow in the 1980s). So there wont be al war, especially not because of some political he said she said. Even the CURRENT mossad chief said so last week...
I know that something like this would't lead to war, I don't think any nation would be silly enough to out of the blue try and sink a US carrier. I'd call developing nukes a pretty big provocation though. I honestly can't see Israel and the US taking it lying down. Fair enough I may well end up being completely wrong but I'd find it hard to fathom why anyone would let them develop nukes. The fact that Israel and the US are already using assassinations and viruses to disrupt the nuclear program is a pretty big sign of their commitment to stopping it.
Original post by Aj12
I know that something like this would't lead to war, I don't think any nation would be silly enough to out of the blue try and sink a US carrier. I'd call developing nukes a pretty big provocation though. I honestly can't see Israel and the US taking it lying down. Fair enough I may well end up being completely wrong but I'd find it hard to fathom why anyone would let them develop nukes. The fact that Israel and the US are already using assassinations and viruses to disrupt the nuclear program is a pretty big sign of their commitment to stopping it.
No ones going to let iran develop the bomb. I added this to last post :
And the nuclear issue is not a technical issue, its a political issue. Right now anyway. If and When this regime starts diverting uranium (obviously this would include just the expulsion of the inspectors), THEN it becomes a technical issue. At which point, the US will swiftly find a way to take the program out. At which point i dont see any room for debate and it would undoubtly have international support. So as ive said before the nuclear issue is really a non-issue.
They can do all the research and computer simulations by phd students they want but when push cpmes to shove if and when diversion actually starts the US willl take it out and iran wont do a damn thing in response.
Original post by MxSK
No ones going to let iran develop the bomb. I added this to last post :
They can do all the research and computer simulations by phd students they want but when push cpmes to shove if and when diversion actually starts the US willl take it out and iran wont do a damn thing in response.
They can do all the research and computer simulations by phd students they want but when push cpmes to shove if and when diversion actually starts the US willl take it out and iran wont do a damn thing in response.
I don't know if I agree they will do nothing, but then Syria and Iraq did nothing either so you could easily be right
Original post by MxSK
its almost as if iran and the US were best friends last year.
Original post by Aj12
x
They aren't as bigger enemies as each like to think, as late as 2001 they were fighting together...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_uprising_in_Herat
Read this Aj.
http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=8746643&c=ASI&s=TOP
US and South Korea boosting guard on the NK-SK border.
European governments have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian oil, dealing a potentially heavy blow to Tehran that intensifies the bite of Western economic sanctions just months before an Iranian election.
Is this upcoming election important? Is there an organised opposition?
US and South Korea boosting guard on the NK-SK border.
European governments have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian oil, dealing a potentially heavy blow to Tehran that intensifies the bite of Western economic sanctions just months before an Iranian election.
Original post by Ferdowsi
....
Original post by MxSK
...
Is this upcoming election important? Is there an organised opposition?
(edited 12 years ago)
Original post by Aj12
Is this upcoming election important? Is there an organised opposition?
Is this upcoming election important? Is there an organised opposition?
The results aren't, they may trigger protests.
This is what is happening
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_legislative_election,_2012
Another potential flashpoint in the coming months is the pre-islamic persian festival of chahar shanbeh soori.
nothing major will probably happen, but they will be trouble.
(there are loads of videos of similar stuff on youtube, it has become a flashpoint recently)
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/06/world/asia/insurgents-say-they-executed-15-kidnapped-pakistani-soldiers.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto
15 Pakistani soldiers kidnapped and murdered by the Pak Taliban
15 Pakistani soldiers kidnapped and murdered by the Pak Taliban
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16420554#TWEET55877|
The security situation in Iraq appears to be getting worse, the pullout was a mistake.
The security situation in Iraq appears to be getting worse, the pullout was a mistake.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-16399275
Global terror: Potential flashpoints in 2012
Global terror: Potential flashpoints in 2012
(edited 12 years ago)
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/01/2012165832659267.html?utm_content=automateplus&utm_campaign=Trial6&utm_source=SocialFlow&utm_term=tweets&utm_medium=MasterAccount
EU is considering allowing its Pirate task force to attack pirates on beaches. Its the typical problem of these sort of task forces, they are so bound by rules of engagement and operating instructions they end up doing nothing.
EU is considering allowing its Pirate task force to attack pirates on beaches. Its the typical problem of these sort of task forces, they are so bound by rules of engagement and operating instructions they end up doing nothing.
Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Refiners in Asia, the destination for 65 percent of Iran’s oil exports, are seeking alternative sources of crude in the event of a supply disruption from the world’s fourth-largest producer.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-06/asian-refiners-seek-iran-oil-alternatives-on-disruption-threat.html
Jan 6 (Reuters) - Iran announced plans on Friday to hold new naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz next month, the latest in a series of forceful gestures in the world's most important oil shipping lane at a time when new sanctions threaten Tehran's exports.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/iran-hormuz-idUSL6E8C60T920120106
Quick Reply
Related discussions
- Passing of Tina Turner
- Edexcel A Level History American Dream Essay
- A couple at the university of Essex
- Is it time for change - is the status quo about to end challenged?
- war studies MA vs International relations at king college London?
- TSR Pride Month Hub 2023! 🌈🌈🌈
- How good is the war studies MA at king college London?
- Was that French woman ignoring me or is it her earphones?
- Develop your career before you finish University with our award-winning Careers Team!
- University of York Clearing 2023
- AQA A-Level History 2S Making of Modern Britain Revision Resources
- Kingston University clearing
- AQA A Level History - Making of Modern Britain(2S) Exam Chat - 9th June 2023
- personal statement advice
- How to write a UCAS personal statement?
- A good personal statement
- american international applicant choosing courses
- personal statement
- TSR Goes Green: What's your favourite animal?
- Britain’s universities are in freefall – and saving them will take more than funding
Latest
Trending
Last reply 4 days ago
Why is the political left now censorious and authoritarian??Last reply 4 days ago
Is it true that British unis are prejudiced towards degrees from Scottish unis?Last reply 4 days ago
If the Russell Group was now a fair representation of what it still claims to beLast reply 2 weeks ago
TSR Goes Green: How important will the environment be in this year's election?Last reply 2 weeks ago
Research Rankings of universities if you add Research Quality & Intensity percentagesLast reply 1 month ago
Is University of Birmingham prestigious and respected well enough in UK ?Trending
Last reply 4 days ago
Why is the political left now censorious and authoritarian??Last reply 4 days ago
Is it true that British unis are prejudiced towards degrees from Scottish unis?Last reply 4 days ago
If the Russell Group was now a fair representation of what it still claims to beLast reply 2 weeks ago
TSR Goes Green: How important will the environment be in this year's election?Last reply 2 weeks ago
Research Rankings of universities if you add Research Quality & Intensity percentagesLast reply 1 month ago
Is University of Birmingham prestigious and respected well enough in UK ?
