Missing your offer; is a university more likely to still accept if you firm?

Basically the title, if i miss my offer would the university i chose be more inclined to offer me a place if i firmed them rather than put them as insurance, or does this not make a difference?

It really depends on the university and the circumstances. The University of York for Law, for example, explicitly said that they'll favour (firm) applicants over others/ones from clearing, so if you missed a grade, they may well still accept you. But other universities may not have the same policy, and even if they do, they may not be transparent about it.

But more important than the university's policy is something completely out of your control - how many applicants held offers, and how many met their offers. Universities generally give out more offers than they have spaces, simply because some students will choose other institutions, and a lot of students will end up missing their offers, and this leads to the university having roughly the right number of students. Of course, the number of students accepting/meeting their offer will vary from year to year; if, this August, less people than normal reach the entry requirements, then you have a good chance of being accepted despite missing your offer. But if more people than normal get the grades, you have basically no chance.

Essentially, it comes down to how well others do, which is something you can't have an impact on, so try your best to get the grades and hope for the best!

One thing to note: universities get your results before you do, so they'll have had chance to review your application, and make their final decision, before you see your results in August. So if you get one grade below the requirements and get rejected, there's no point phoning/emailing them to beg; they'll have made their final decision. Some universities may call applicants on results day that only just missed their offer and give them a chance to be accepted, so there may be hope, but if there is an acceptance or rejection on UCAS on results day, then it's final.

Basically the title, if i miss my offer would the university i chose be more inclined to offer me a place if i firmed them rather than put them as insurance, or does this not make a difference?

You'll only usually be rejected if the university thinks they can find better applicants via clearing and/or your grades are so poor the university thinks you just won't cope with the course.

Or the course is chockablock full so they're looking for any excuse to keep the numbers manageable so they're rejecting on technicalities never mind missed grades.

Sorry, my wording probably wasn't very clear- all of that paragraph only applies if the course isn't already filled by students who achieved their offers!

I know - just like to prepare the Durham firmers for the inevitable

I know - just like to prepare the Durham firmers for the inevitable

Basically the title, if i miss my offer would the university i chose be more inclined to offer me a place if i firmed them rather than put them as insurance, or does this not make a difference?

Basically the title, if i miss my offer would the university i chose be more inclined to offer me a place if i firmed them rather than put them as insurance, or does this not make a difference?